Is Gulianai too liberal for the republican ticket in '08?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

what do you think? remember he's pro abortion

[A18]

If Giuliani gets the nomination and the Dems pick a social conservative, bye bye GOP south.

On the other hand, bye bye Democratic northeast.

[YRABNNRM]

Yes unfortunatly.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Guys comeon are you really sure that the south would do a complete 180 after what it just did 3 weeks ago? i dont think so

[7,052,770]

Yes, he is.
But go ahead and nominate him anyway

[Lunar]

He's against the partial birth abortion ban.

All it takes is one opponent in the primaries to run constant ads pointing this out and he's toast.

[A18]

Giuliani has only two options on social issues:
1. pull a John Kerry
2. states' rights

Otherwise, he's toast.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

who is it going to be then phil?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

let's wait until some candidates announce before making guesses, OK?

Regardless, I agree with what Lunar just summed up.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

I'm suprised no ones noticed i spelled his name wrong oops

[Cashcow]

Guys comeon are you really sure that the south would do a complete 180 after what it just did 3 weeks ago? i dont think so

1960 vs 1964.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

cash cow dont u think the south is to set in its near fanatical republicanism (not that thats a bad thing)

[Cashcow]

It is, but anything's possible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

cash cow dont u think the south is to set in its near fanatical republicanism (not that thats a bad thing)

do you know how fanatically Democrat it used to be?

South Carolina, 1936:

Rooselvet/Garner 98.57%
Landon/Knox 1.43%

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Yeah so they went heavy democrat in 36 but they were supporting their partys candidate

[Hermit]

Guys comeon are you really sure that the south would do a complete 180 after what it just did 3 weeks ago? i dont think so

What the South just did three weeks ago was say, as usual "OH MAN ARE WE CONSERVATIVE". If the Republican is liberal and the Democrat more conservative, they'll go for the Democrat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah so they went heavy democrat in 36 but they were supporting their partys candidate

um, yeah that's my point. The south was far more heavily Democrat than it is Republican today.

[danwxman]

Guys comeon are you really sure that the south would do a complete 180 after what it just did 3 weeks ago? i dont think so

What the South just did three weeks ago was say, as usual "OH MAN ARE WE CONSERVATIVE". If the Republican is liberal and the Democrat more conservative, they'll go for the Democrat.

Exactly. Many of those Southerners are still registered Democrats. If there's a Democrat thats not a Northeastern liberal...they will vote for them.

[Erc]

Yeah, just like they voted for Al Gore...

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Good point Erc but there going to say he wasnt middle of the road

[Hermit]

Yeah, just like they voted for Al Gore...

Gore was a liberal. Bush was a conservative. The South votes for Conservatives. If it was a race between a Conservative Democrat and a Liberal Republican (especially from the North), they'd vote for the Democrat.

[Sam Spade]

do you know how fanatically Democrat it used to be?

South Carolina, 1936:

Rooselvet/Garner 98.57%
Landon/Knox 1.43%

They also had the poll tax and the literacy tests in those days in South Carolina. 

[Sam Spade]

The South is not as uniform here as everyone is seeming to think it is here.

Although I honestly think Giulani would have an extremely tough time getting through the primaries, he is more popular with rank and file Reps in these areas than most people would admit. (based on my limited conversations).

Against a southern Democrat (depending on what state he comes from), my gut tells me that Rudy would probably hold onto Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, North and South Carolina and probably Georgia.

Rudy would also be stronger in Florida than most Dems would admit because of his strong standing in the Jewish community.

The other Southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee and Virginia would be up for grabs.  So would West Virginia and Missouri and probably a decent part of the upper Midwest.

On the flip side, he would bring into play pretty much all of New England, and the mid-Atlantic states, as well as California and probably Illinois.

Simply put, Rudy is the type of candidate that brings nearly every state into play (certainly on the Democrat side) and for that simple reason I think he won't be nominated at all.

[Democratic Hawk]

I think it's gonna be tough for any liberal/moderate Republican to win the GOP nomination

Giuliani is electable, and undoubtedly quite popular among Democrats, and could make significant inroads, or gains, into "blue" states.

However, should he run and win the GOP nomination, would a Christian Right candidate emerge to split the GOP vote?

Dave

[Nym90]

The Republicans won't nominate a moderate in 2008. The religious right is starting to get cocky and they won't stand for a pro-choice nominee; if the Christian Coalition doesn't torpedo Giuliani, the NRA will do him in.