Palins numbers as Republican nominee.

[Liberalrocks]

Is there anywhere in the US where you can see a Palin 2012 ticket polling better then the McCain 2008 (or even Bush 04)  if she is nominated? I personally doubt she would poll better then McCain or Bush anywhere in the country outside of some Alaska precincts. I would expect an Obama landslide question being how large.

Discuss.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I could see here polling better in some Arizona precincts/counties maybe.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Some places in Texas too.

[Liberalrocks]

Arizona?...hmm Interesting. I would not expect that but maybe that could happen if turnout is lower after all this is the state that reelected "headless bodies in the desert" woman. I still think Obama beats her in AZ though.

Texas... maybe rural areas?

[tpfkaw]

mountain/desert west

[Brittain33]

It would have to be a place where Obama was unusually strong, and she would do better only because Obama's numbers dropped along with overall voters while solid Republicans still came out. So I would have to say, parts of northern Indiana, maybe northwest Ohio (OH-5), and very wealthy areas like southern Orange County where Palin doesn't go over well but they have seriously soured on Obama.

[Liberalrocks]

It would have to be a place where Obama was unusually strong, and she would do better only because Obama's numbers dropped along with overall voters while solid Republicans still came out. So I would have to say, parts of northern Indiana, maybe northwest Ohio (OH-5), and very wealthy areas like southern Orange County where Palin doesn't go over well but they have seriously soured on Obama.

Well I am from Los Angeles nor far from the OC area. I don't see Palin doing better then McCain  in Orange County despite its strong Rep history. I believe it would be about the same margin as we had seen in 08. Palin takes the county by no more then 5pts. You are right they have soured on Obama but California republicans dont perfectly fit the Palin mold. Many dont feel she is qualified to serve and some could hold their nose and vote Obama or third party.  Turnout in the OC would likely stay depressed as it had been in 08. I would expect to see a third party poll better then expected.

[Niemeyerite]

Some places in Indiana, Idaho, Utah and maybe Wyoming and Oklahoma.

[pbrower2a]

Some places in Indiana, Idaho, Utah and maybe Wyoming and Oklahoma.

Indiana was a miracle for Obama, and it might not be repeated. That says, Sarah Palin loses Indiana even if it is Obama's 42nd-best state in such an election.

[albaleman]

It would have to be some place where Obama overperformed. Nevada and Indiana are possibilities if Palin comes with 10 points, but if she loses in the type of landslide I think she will, she'll do worse than McCain almost everywhere.