What will the map look like if the country is....

[phk]

D+10

D+7

D+3

D+1

R+1

R+3

R+7

R+10

I will make my own maps.

[pbrower2a]

Here's mine, the barest of Obama wins that makes any sense (D+0):

Obama/Biden 272

Romney/???   266

Democrats have a razor-thin margin in the Senate, having lost two seats. The GOP majority in the House is shrunk significantly because wave elections as a rule are largely undone in even elections.

Barest loss (R+0):

2012:

Romney/???   272
Obama/Biden 266

Either way, Iowa is the last state to be decided. Rationale: without the ethanol subsidy (a likely GOP target), Iowa gets shakier than New Hampshire. As I see it, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are more solid D now than Iowa; Iowa is more rural than New Hampshire, and Obama does less well to the extent that a state is rural.  Romney is the only GOP nominee who can get this result.  The Republicans probably have lost little in the House, but have won a bare majority in the Senate.

[feeblepizza]

Explain what that means before I make any maps, please.

[pbrower2a]

D+3

Obama/Biden 332

Romney/???   206

This is similar to 2008, although I figure that President Obama has made his biggest gains (none enough to win) in the South. More states are closer, but even with a higher percentage of the total vote he still loses Indiana and NE-02.

R+3

Romney/???   285
Obama/Biden 253

Structural weaknesses of the GOP keep it from winning as many electoral votes with a 53-47 split of the vote as does Obama with 53% of the vote. There are just too few states close to being pick-ups for the GOP from the barest of wins. Obama wins every state that he won by 10%  or more in 2008, but by narrower margins -- but nothing else. America's political culture has not changed.

The GOP has a clear majority in the Senate and may have kept most of its 2008 gains in the House.    Democrats are looking forward to 2016.

[pbrower2a]

You didn't ask for D+5 or D-5, but here is D+5 (which I think is easy) are instead of D+7 and R+7, which is fairly easy.  R+5 looks much like R+3 anyway except that CO and NH definitely goes to the Republican and maybe one or two of Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and I wouldn't have any idea of which to pick.

D+5 (beyond which things get speculative)

Obama/Biden 381

Whoever?      157

At this point, Obama wins everything that he won in 2008 and picks up Georgia (military success in Afghanistan makes this national margin (55-45) possible. To the surprise of many, President Obama now has a majority in the House and has picked up a couple of Senate seats.    

R+7

Romney/???   330
Obama/Biden 228

Something has gone very wrong for the Obama Administration, and it won't be around to pick up the pieces. This shows a failed Administration or the success of the GOP in convincing Americans that a corporatist agenda is the best thing that could ever happen or that the Religious Right has had a national Revival that convinces people to vote for "God and GOP". Pennsylvania, Minnesota (which shows how things have gone -- the state hadn't voted for any Republican nominee since the Nixon blowout in 1972) go for the Republican nominee.
The GOP has won several Senate seats, including almost everything that the Democrats flipped in 2006. The GOP is close to a filibuster-proof Senate and has extended its lead in the House, if slightly.

The Democrats have some soul-searching to do if they are to ever have influence in America. America is almost a single-party state because the GOP is such a monolith. Olympia Snowe has been tea-bagged, and the GOP has won the seat.   Democrats are now almost completely unable to achieve anything except where they have machine control of communities.  Liberals begin to abandon just about everything but college towns and giant cities, where they (1) have no cause to fear state and local police, (2) where they won't be discriminated against in jobs, as it helps to be a 'conservative' Republican just to get a job as a checkout worker in a box store, and (3) where they have a chance to reshape some little part of the world.  

[anvi]

My guesses.

D+10: 369-169

D+7: 348-190

D+3: 285-253

D+1: 272-266

R+1:272-266

R+3: 278-260

R+7: 302-236

R+10: 319-219

Realistically, I think we will be looking at an end result in 2012 that ranges somewhere between the D+3 and the R+3.

[Yelnoc]

All electoral votes are based on 2008 map.

D+10 506-32
The Republican Party completely implodes and does not run a candidate.  A  conservative Republican runs a weak write-in campaign that nonetheless wins six states.

D+7 463-75
Palin wins, not because of a conservative wave, but a weak field, liberal democratic support, and dumb luck.  She runs a horrible campaign, marred by gaffes and maybe even a scandal or two.

D+3 379-159
Gingrich clinches the nomination after a prolonged primary.  His campaign is decent but he's been out of office for too long and is seen as a relic from the 1990's.

D+1 376-162
Romney wins the nomination after a protracted battle with x which puts him at a disadvantage in the general election

R+1 339-199
Mike Huckabee clinches the Republican nomination but loses the general election to Obama.

R+3 291-247
John Thune wins the Republican nomination.  After a close campaign, he is defeated by Obama on election night.

R+7 326-212
Daniels easily clinches the Republican nomination.  The economy double-dips, sweeping the Republican into office.

R+10 385-153
Daniels clinches the GOP nomination.  Illinois and California default on their debt causing the other states to fall like dominoes and turning the US economy into an absolute cluster complete with another economic bubble popped; it's the second Great Depression and spreading global quickly.  Luckily for Obama he's a talented, filthy rich campaigner that didn't have to face a primary challenge while Daniels was shot by a random crank and had to spend most of the campaign trail in a hospital bed.

[albaleman]

D +10:

D+7:

D+3:

D+1:

R+1:

R+3:

R+7:

R+10:

[pbrower2a]

OK -- I'm going to try D-10 and R-10.

Obama/Biden 504

Whoever?      34

At D+10 (Texas is on the margin at D+7) one sees an electoral disaster for Republicans. John Thune  wins his own state, but every other imaginable GOP nominee loses his own state. Mike Huckabee has too high a floor of electoral votes to lose this badly, so he isn't the sacrificial lamb in this scenario. It's hard to see President Obama doing appreciably better in the Democratic firewall, so his gains reflect that the states that Bill Clinton won and Obama lost are going for him. Enough white votes go for Obama because he has proved that even if he is black, he's not the sort of black man that they fear that he picks up Mississippi and comes close to winning Alabama.   The GOP is having trouble protecting its Senate incumbents in the South in the definitive realignment election.

The Republican nominee wins Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, Alabama, and the Third Congressional District of Nebraska. Thune wins South Dakota but loses North Dakota decisively.  

  

R+10

This is an electoral disaster for the Democrats in about every possible aspect. The Democrats have lost almost every Senate seat up for grabs, and the GOP has probably doubled its hold on the House. California. Illinois, and New York might almost vote for the President -- but "almost" means "not" in politics.  The Republicans probably maxed out in a bunch of states in 2008, so their gains will be in states that voted for Obama by wide margins.

Dictator  or his stooge        303
Obama/Biden                        35

The GOP is not a democratic party; it is a near-monolith. People not associated with the core elites of the GOP are going to get burned until either a revolution, a military coup,  or a military debacle.  A flurry of Constitutional amendments might ensue with all sorts of mischief.      

The one good result will be that intelligent Americans will redevelop interest in learning foreign languages, which might be good for learning to appreciate Pushkin, Gogol, Chekhov, Dostoevsky, Tolstoy, Pasternak, and Solzhenitsyn in the original Russian. That might not be the sole purpose. Some might seek to read Lenin in the original Russian. America is about to have Gilded Age economics with teeth. Of you have loved San Francisco, then you might contemplate Lisbon. 

[°Leprechaun]

how about a tie

[albaleman]

It's REALLY hard to come up with a realistic tie scenario. This is the closest I was able to come:

[Miles]

D+10
416D-122R

AR and WV have trended strongly GOP, but Dems have a huge registration advantage in those states. That has to count for something. Obama couldn't win there, but a Blue Dog could and Clinton would carry each of those.

D+7
369D- 169R

This would look very similar to 2008. MO and IN narrowly go Dem due to the national tide, maybe MT too.


D+3
 303D- 235R

D+1
276D- 262R

Obama is saved by his turnout operation in VA.

R+1
272R- 266D

R+3
285R- 253D

R+7
336R- 206D

With Reid's amazingly comfortable margin of victory in 2010, Dems have shown they can turn out their base in NV. Besides IL, the only midwestern state Obama carries is MN.

R+10
365R- 173D

Even with an R+10 electorate, the Republican would max out at 365 EVs. Ironically, this would be a mirror reversal of Obama's 2008 EV total. The Democratic base states just account for more the the GOP base states. Obama breaks 50% in IL b/c of the home state effect. He loses WA by a few dozen votes due to turnout and motivated voters in the eastern part of the state, but keeps OR; Dems have won very close races in OR recently (Merkley, Kitzhaber, etc.). The GOP could grab the rural ME district and NH, but New England is mostly safe for Obama.

[DS0816]

D+10…  D+7… D+3… D+1… R+1… R+3… R+7… R+10… I will make my own maps.

I'm refraining from making any maps.

Assuming you're talking margins, rather than shifts, I'll save you some trouble. Anything less than Obama's national 7.26%, from 2008, points to a flip of the White House. An 8- to 10-point R shift. At best, for the Republicans, an outcome of R+3.

If result is R+3, every 2008 Democratic pickup flips back to the 2012 Republican column. But add New Hampshire as well. Electoral College, for a prevailing R challenger, would (just like 2000/2004 Bush) fall under 300.

If result is Obama re-elected with margin shifts between D+2.51% and D+5.00%, flip Indiana and Nebraska #02. Counter with pickups of Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. Electoral College: 377.

If result is a 2012 re-election of Obama essentially doubling his 2008 margin of 7.26%, in part because the R challenger was a bomb, we'll see the country's first 400-plus blowout in the Electoral Ceollge since the ass-kickings from R's in the 1970s and 1980s. No D pickups from 2008 flip back to the R's. Along with 2012 D pickups of Ga., Mo., and Mont. are McCain-held-single-digit states (Arizona, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska #01). If the R challenger is reduced from McCain's 45.66% down to, say, 39%/40%/41% of the U.S. Popular Vote, Texas barely flips as well. Then no more than three states, having carried for McCain at 15% (or more) also flip (my guess: all of Nebraska and Kansas; I'm more confident with them over a Kentucky/Tennessee or Arkansas/Louisiana pair). Electoral College in the upper-400s.