What Republicans can beat Obama?

[anvi]

I'm surprised to have seen Hoevan mentioned several times.  He is certainly well liked in NoDak.  But he used to be the president of the Bank of North Dakota.  One prediction I feel pretty safe in making about the election is that a former banker won't win the presidency as soon as next year.  And, seriously, it's way too early for him.

[anvi]

I have no idea what is going to happen in the country in the next 22 months, much less what will happen in the next election.  If the Republicans pick a qualified, appealing and persuasive nominee, sure they'll have a shot at taking back the White House.  

But a lot of what passes itself off as election analysis in this country is actually thinly veiled cheerleading (that's of course sometimes true of me too).  But, even in relatively hard times, Obama is not an easy guy to beat out there.  It was no mean feat for him to defeat the heavily favored Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.  Time after time, he would saunter into states one week before a primary polling 6-7% behind Clinton, and would end up pulling a ten point or better turnaround on voting day.  McCain was no gimme either; no Republican should have gotten above 45% of the vote in the 2008 general, and he did, and was actually leading slightly after the conventions.  Obama is no political pushover, and his campaign team is as savvy as they come.   If the GOP is going to beat him, they have to chose someone both highly competent and with broad appeal.

The GOP should just pick the nominee that would be best for the whole country.  The best person will give them the best chances.  

[anvi]

Obama did come from behind in polling margins within one week to win eight primaries and caucuses in Iowa (polling was all over the place right before the primary, but Clinton was pretty consistently ahead all the way up to Dec. 30th), Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kansas (they admittedly didn't poll right before the primary, but all polls conducted beforehand there had Clinton ahead), Maine, Missouri (polling was also close here right before the primary, but Clinton was consistently ahead one week beforehand) and Minnesota.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_January_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Super_Tuesday_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

As far as the GOP convention bump was concerned, sure, Palin got the conservatives on board at that point, but I also think part of the bump was attributable to McCain's acceptance speech, which I remember being decent.