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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Georgia  (Read 15853 times)
dpmapper
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« on: December 31, 2010, 01:25:26 pm »
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First draft of Georgia. 

Start in the southwest: GA-02 in green, Sanford Bishop.  I didn't want to mess with this one too much, seeing as it might trigger a VRA case.  This district lost its parts of Columbus, gained Valdosta and most of Macon.  It was 48% black, now it's 47% black; I haven't run the numbers on it but it should be a shade more GOP-friendly than it was before.  Bishop will have to stay on his toes, given his close call this year. 

The district that picked up Columbus is GA-03, Lynn Westmoreland.  It's still at 59.1-40.2 McCain, and that's without accounting for its part of Floyd county south of Rome. 

Moving east, GA-08 in yellow for Austin Scott.  Losing Macon means it goes from 56-43% McCain to 62.4-37.9.

GA-01 (blue) for Jack Kingston: lost Valdosta, gained more of Savannah.  In exchange GA-12 (orange) for John Barrow gained counties north of Augusta (and lost some majority black counties in the process).  If we assume Savannah/Chatham County votes split proportionally between Kingston and Barrow (which shouldn't be too hard to arrange) then Kingston is still at 59.4-40.0 McCain, while Barrow goes to 52.2-47.2 McCain (from 54-45 Obama).  This is actually being nice to Barrow; one could both make him move and give him a 55% McCain district very easily, but I'm tired and just wanted to get this map out there.  I do wonder how badly the GOP wants to get rid of him; he is, after all, the least valuable Democrat according to 538 now that Artur Davis is gone. 

The new district is in bronze, taking in the Atlanta south and southeast exurbs, primarily.  Without its Gwinnett parts, it's at 61.4-37.9 McCain. 
 
Everyone else should be just as safe as before; I haven't calculated because it's pretty darn obvious.  Gingrey (GA-11, in light green) has the GOP parts of Cobb anchored by Paulding and Bartow exurbs which run 70% McCain.  Price, GA-06 in teal, has some of the white parts of north Atlanta and DeKalb (I checked most of those precincts - they're about 50-55% McCain in total), plus his home base of Roswell/Alpharetta in north Fulton (>60% McCain), plus Cherokee County at 75% McCain.  Woodall (GA-07, in gray), took a purplish DeKalb finger, but lost lean-GOP north Gwinnett while gaining Hall and Jackson Counties (75% McCain).  He's safe. 

Graves (GA-9, light blue) takes the lean-GOP north Gwinnett from Woodall and Broun (GA-10, pink) soaks up some black voters west of Augusta, but given that they still have their parts of north Georgia, they're more than comfortable. 

So the totals are:

9 solid GOP district
1 lean GOP district
1 minority-almost-plularity-but-still-somewhat-swingy district
3 solid Atlanta Dems

Plus, if you really want to mess with Bishop you still have room to do that as well. 
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« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2010, 01:49:08 pm »
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There's really no excuse not to make Bishop's district majority black now that it is very possible to do so. Don't think the Republicans will be able to get away with anything less.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2010, 01:50:43 pm by Verily »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2010, 01:54:09 pm »
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If you really want to engage in some monstrosity-making, you can actually take the 2nd and run it from Albany to Columbus to Macon to Augusta to Savannah and create a ~60% black district. It ends up looking like a horseshoe and cuts the state in half; you can do this while leaving 3 CD's worth of population under the cut.

Instead, though, I think they keep the existing 2nd and just put Macon/Valdosta into it. That bumps it up to ~54% black.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2011, 11:53:07 am »
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There's really no excuse not to make Bishop's district majority black now that it is very possible to do so. Don't think the Republicans will be able to get away with anything less.

Yep, I can't imagine them not wanting to do this.

img689.imageshack.us/img689/258/georgian.png


New CD-2 is 56% Black.


New CD-12 runs much farther north and is 28% Black. Whether this dislodges Barrow the way it did Marshall, I am not sure.

New CD-14 is 24% black and runs from Gwinnet County south.


What I am not sure about is the exact boundaries between CD-5 and CD-6 as well as CD-4 and CD-7.

Does it make more sense to run 6 and 7 deeper into Dekalb/Fulton, and run 4 and 5 deeper into Cobb/Gwinnett? Or should 4 and 5 remain in Dekalb/Fulton counties? I'm not sure where the stronger Dem areas are.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2011, 04:30:11 pm »
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Broun lives in Athens, and that's where Barrow used to live, so you probably don't want to run an Athens-Savannah district, besides the usual non-compactness reasons. 

The reason I wasn't sure about how many blacks the GOP would want to pack into Bishop's district is that none of the bordering GOP reps need much help, plus they don't want to completely destroy their chances of picking him off if any additional ethical improprieties surface.  Plus it gets pretty ugly if you want to get it much higher than 50%. 

I wouldn't run the GOP districts too far in - you get white liberals and Georgia Tech if you do that.  If I had run them any farther into north Atlanta and inner DeKalb in my map, I would have been picking up areas which were Obama 55%+.  Better to have 20% minority + white conservatives than a district that's 5% minority but white moderate/liberals.  But these are minor details. 
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2011, 04:41:29 pm »
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I think the point is that the VRA becomes an issue when there are this many seats to play around with. When you have fourteen seats, can you really argue against drawing a black majority seat in southern Georgia if you're supposed to if you can?
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2011, 04:50:52 pm »
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I would have to think Bishop's CD is probably going to have to be black majority.  Which leaves the only question in GA left - how badly does the GOP try to take out Barrow?
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dpmapper
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2011, 04:52:57 pm »
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I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines.  My point was more that, even if they're compelled to make it majority black, I doubt that they'll go much higher than 50%+1.  
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2011, 04:56:28 pm »
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Broun lives in Athens, and that's where Barrow used to live, so you probably don't want to run an Athens-Savannah district, besides the usual non-compactness reasons.  

The reason I wasn't sure about how many blacks the GOP would want to pack into Bishop's district is that none of the bordering GOP reps need much help, plus they don't want to completely destroy their chances of picking him off if any additional ethical improprieties surface.  Plus it gets pretty ugly if you want to get it much higher than 50%.  

I wouldn't run the GOP districts too far in - you get white liberals and Georgia Tech if you do that.  If I had run them any farther into north Atlanta and inner DeKalb in my map, I would have been picking up areas which were Obama 55%+.  Better to have 20% minority + white conservatives than a district that's 5% minority but white moderate/liberals.  But these are minor details.  

I don't think the idea is to take him out so much as it is to keep him voting the way you want him to vote, and keep the seat heavy Republican if it opens or in the next 2010. Where you run him to is up for debate.

Between weakening Jack Kingston and drawing noncompact lines it probably makes sense to draw noncompact lines. Broun certainly can take all of Augusta and be in a stronger district than, say, Westmoreland and Kingston. And he doesn't have the clout that Kingston does anyway.

With Bishop, I figure you might as well pack him in. If/when his ethics violations bite him in the rear, you can do a Joseph Cao and lease his seat for 2 years.

The trick to forming a really strong map will be unlocking the excess strength in the 9th.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2011, 04:58:58 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2011, 04:57:23 pm »
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I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines.  My point was more that, even if they're compelled to make it majority black, I doubt that they'll go much higher than 50%+1.  

With blacks, that's all that would be required.
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2011, 06:30:43 pm »
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I understood the VRA issue, although one can try to argue against it by saying that 47-8% is close enough and any more requires really jagged lines.

Actually you can get a small outright majority and still have the most normal-looking rural VRA district in the south after MS-2.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2011, 10:58:02 pm »
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Here's an attempt at a 10-4 Republican map of Georgia.

Statewide map:



Atlanta area:



GA-01 (blue, Jack Kingston - R) - Stretches west to take in some parts of GA-02. Still safe R.
GA-02 (green, Sanford Bishop - D) - Yeah, this one almost goes to Augusta in order to soak up as many black voters as possible. Now 55% black.
GA-03 (purple, Lynn Westmoreland - R) - Eastern end shrinks, instead goes north. Safe R.
GA-04 (red, Hank Johnson - D) - Pretty much the same, 58% black.
GA-05 (yellow, John Lewis - D) - Also pretty much the same, 57% black.
GA-06 (teal, Tom Price - R) - Here's where things get interesting. The Atlanta suburbs are expanding rapidly, and bringing with them (gasp) diversity. Of course, there's no way of really telling how the suburbs are changing, but I tried to even out GA-06, 07, and 11 as DRA posits the county growth. This one's 68% white.
GA-07 (grey, Rob Woodall - R) - Wasn't sure where this guy lives, so I guessed somewhere in Gwinnett County. The district loses its eastern edge but stretches north to compensate.
GA-08 (light purple, Austin Scott - R) - Conveniently, Scott lives in the southern end of the district, so I could lop the top off at Macon. Drops the black population from 33% to 28%.
GA-09 (sky blue, Tom Graves - R) - now an L-shape along the state's border; not a huge change.
GA-10 (magenta, Paul Broun - R) - Ridiculously-shaped in order to soak up both Athens and most of Augusta, but those cities are compensated for by the extremely-Republican parts in the north and western edge of the district.
GA-11 (light green, Phil Gingrey - R) - Becomes a much more suburban district. 68% white.
GA-12 (very light purple, John Barrow - D) - Tried to dislodge Barrow by reducing the black percentage. Excising much of the black belt portion of the district (and Augusta) and stretching the district northwest reduces the black population to 32%.
GA-13 (pink, David Scott - D) - Mostly unchanged, 52% black.
GA-14 (brown, open) - Created from parts of GA-03 and GA-08, it should be a pretty Republican seat. 67% white, 26% black.

Yeah, so the Atlanta suburbs are a ticking time bomb for the Republicans, but they can always re-redistrict whenever they become too inconvenient.
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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2011, 11:03:01 pm »
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Couldn't hurt to put the black parts of Newton County in GA-04.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2011, 08:28:08 am »
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The other option:

Pack Barrow's district and crack ethically challenged Bishop's.

This might actually be a better solution since Bishop doesn't have the same 'moderate' tendencies that Barrow does, and it might lead to a primary challenge on Barrow and oust him anyway.




You get the numbers within 1-2% of what you get with the Barrow Configuration. Westmoreland goes up from 22% to 24%, same as Kingston. Bishop's district is 33-34% black depending on how badly you want to draw the lines.



Between Savannah, Augusta, Columbus, Albany, Macon, you seem to have to choose 3. Later I am going to try to draw a Savannah-Albany-Macon district, ditching Augusta entirely into Broun's district. Savannah-Albany-Macon puts the bases of all 3 Dem Congressman in the same district.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2011, 02:51:59 pm by krazen1211 »Logged
Bacon King
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2011, 09:28:59 am »
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My expectations for Georgia redistricting:

-The 2nd will become minority-majority
-They'll gun for Barrow, possibly by forcing him to run against, Kingston, or maybe Broun or Scott.
-The new district will be placed in such a way that northwest Georgia (Dalton, Rome, ect.) gets it's own district.

Also, if any Republican loses his district it'll be Gingrey, who's like 70 and is rumored to be contemplating retirement anyway.
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2011, 10:04:09 am »
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I think the point is that the VRA becomes an issue when there are this many seats to play around with. When you have fourteen seats, can you really argue against drawing a black majority seat in southern Georgia if you're supposed to if you can?
As long as you're not obviously targetting him, you ought to be fine no matter the percentage. There's only one thing that ought to be very very clear: No map attacking both Bishop and Barrow is going to withstand any sort of judicial scrutiny. You want to dismantle Barrow's seat (and you'll have to do either that or give him all the Augusta exurbs, as in the first plan here, to be sure of victory; he's dug himself in well. That Broun is not from Augusta is thus a boon to R mapmaking), you better throw a bone by nudging Bishop's percentages up.
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2011, 12:18:19 pm »
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Here's my take on a likely/possible Georgia map: (analysis by district below goes from south to north, roughly)

2nd (dark green): 52% black, 43% white.
Bishop's district gains Macon to make it majority black.

8th (blue on the border with FL): 67% white, 25% black.
Austin Scott gets a safe seat.

1st (dark blue, southeast): 59% white, 34% black.
Kingston's seat; Barrow might also run. (I should have swapped territory with the 8th to make both districts about 64% white, honestly. Pretend that happened here. Especially with more to the south and less to the north, it's areas where Kingston already has campaign infrastructure and all that. Kingston v. Barrow would be an easy Kingston win in that circumstance.)

12th (blue district in middle of the state): 61% white, 33% black.
Open seat ready for a Republican legislator. Marshall could run but he'd have a much harder time winning without his Macon base. I imagine someone like State Senators Tollerson or Staton would run for the seat, which would further reduce Marshall's chances with their political bases in north Bibb Co. and Houston Co., respectively.

3rd (yellow): 66% white, 26% black.
A safe seat for Westmoreland that scoops up most of Henry County to avoid having a closer suburban district on the map that could switch parties with a demographic shift.

11th (lime green): 76% white, 13% black.
Safe for Gingrey or whatever Republican holds it if he retires.

13th (salmon) 55% black, 30% white, 10% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Scott.

5th (purple) 55% black, 31% white, 10% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Lewis.

4th (red): 56% black, 23% white, 14% hispanic.
Minority-majority district, safe for Johnson.

6th district (teal): 68% white, 14% hispanic.
Safe for Price. Minimal risk of demographic change; the wealthy whites in gentrified Buckhead and the "McMansion" suburbs of old Milton aren't going anywhere.

7th (gray): 63% white, 18% black, 11% hispanic.
Safe for Woodall. Takes in wealthy and white Oconee County to keep Woodall safer from future demographic changes in Gwinnett.

10th (pink): 63% white, 28% black
Safe for Broun (though with this district he could be primaried from that guy in Augusta- who IIRC the GOP establishment liked more anyway). Barrow would probably try to run in this district (switching his residency back to his home in Athens) because it includes both Athens and Augusta. The inclusion of the outer Atlanta suburbia with Barrow (the county) and Jackson in this district would help shore up the GOP candidate, though.

14th (golden brown): 81% white, 10% hispanic.
Safe GOP seat with no incumbent. I know this district will be created with a certain state legislator (who's on the redistricting committee, lol) in mind; don't remember his name. I want to say he represents somewhere around Dalton.

9th (sky blue in the northeast): 81% white, 11% hispanic.
Safe seat for Graves.

And, there you have it. A 10-4 map for the GOP without messy boundaries, legitimate grounds for a VRA lawsuit, or risk of losing seats within the decade from demographic movement.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2011, 12:23:05 pm by Bacon King »Logged

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« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2011, 12:12:57 am »
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This is the f you map.



New gold 14th crafted for Senator Bill Cowsert, who happens to be Vice Chair of Redistricting.

Mike Keown lives in the new 2nd, which is about 15 points more Republican. Bishop might actually live in the new 55% black 12th.

Every other district should be absolutely ironclad. Gwinnett County, even if it goes blue a bit, is split amongst several districts.

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dpmapper
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« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2011, 01:08:59 am »
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Hmm, maybe they should go after Bishop,  not Barrow.  You might even get Barrow to vote to repeal ObamaCare in exchange for a promise to give him the safe district.  Wouldn't want to give him too many African-Americans, though, lest he lose a primary challenge from the left.  50%+1 should be adequate.  
« Last Edit: January 06, 2011, 01:11:01 am by dpmapper »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2011, 07:39:43 am »
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Hmm, maybe they should go after Bishop,  not Barrow.  You might even get Barrow to vote to repeal ObamaCare in exchange for a promise to give him the safe district.  Wouldn't want to give him too many African-Americans, though, lest he lose a primary challenge from the left.  50%+1 should be adequate.  


It actually made more sense to me, since on that side of the state, you don't have to weaken any existing powerful incumbents (IE Kingston). Westmoreland has to take in Columbus, but he is compensated for it.

Why should only 1 guy get North Georgia?
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« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2011, 08:50:39 am »
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Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th.

The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote.
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« Reply #21 on: January 06, 2011, 09:06:03 am »
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Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th.

The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote.
The GOP is drawing the lines; it's not really a problem. It's just sort of meanness for meanness' sake, with no benefits to the GOP of any kind. But no real drawback (unless they somehow manage to make people angry.)
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« Reply #22 on: January 06, 2011, 09:20:49 am »
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Yeah, I'm just saying, trying to get rid of Bishop by drawing him in with Barrow would probably backfire.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: January 06, 2011, 10:00:04 am »
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Bishop lives in Albany, which you split between the 2nd and 12th.

The problem with trying to make Barrow safer is that he's already vulnerable to a primary challenge; that black state Senator who raised no money got about 40% running against him last year. Heck, putting Macon in the district could cause Jim Marshall to run and split the white vote.

I'm not really trying to get rid of or the other. If Bishop wants to run in CD-12 he is more than welcome to. The idea is to limit the Democrats to 1 district here, I don't care who comes out of it.

I figure you put the bases of all 3 congressman (Savannah, Macon, Albany) in mostly the same district and let the chips fall wherever they put them.

With Barrow, if you try to knock him off, you can get a redux of Chet Edwards/Jim Marshall with this guy holding onto an R+10 district. I figure if you do this, though, yeah, he is screwed in a primary. But that's his problem, isn't it?

I think scholarship Bishop is less likely to hold onto an R+10 district (the 2nd in my map) than Barrow is (the typically drawn 12th in most people's maps).



It is, somewhat, meanness for meanness sake, but it is also a great map, imo. I can probably work the 12th deeper into Albany if I want to.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2011, 10:14:12 am by krazen1211 »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: January 06, 2011, 01:42:43 pm »
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The other issue is that Unnamed New Black Congressperson (D-GA) will probably be more liberal than Bishop. Regina Thomas who got 42% in the primary against Barrow was definitely running to his left; it wasn't a sort of racial non-ideological challenge like that Lawson dude in north Florida was running. So if you're going to have one guaranteed VRA seat, you might as well have it be Bishop, from the GOP's point of view, ideologically speaking.

I mean, I know the sides dislike each other, but this isn't some 8-year old boys' schoolyard fight in which pissing off the other guy is itself a victory regardless of your own interests.
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