US House Redistricting: Georgia

[Bacon King]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

No, that applies to semi-sorta-community-of-interest areas of district size that a district absolutely must be drawn based on, unless there's more of those than would be strictly proportional to the overall Black population. In other words, moot point with these fantasy maps.
Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice.

Ah, thanks for the info

I love how this forum is such a wealth of knowledge- I'm pretty sure I've learned more about politics and related topics here over the years than I have from all other sources combined, even in college poli sci classes and such.

[minionofmidas]

But if it's plurality it's not a VRA district. Gingles test.

No, that applies to semi-sorta-community-of-interest areas of district size that a district absolutely must be drawn based on, unless there's more of those than would be strictly proportional to the overall Black population. In other words, moot point with these fantasy maps.
Even then the district itself doesn't need to be 50.1, it only needs to safely elect a candidate of the Black community's choice.

Ah, thanks for the info

Mind you, you'll probably want to make your districts 50.1 just to be sure in case you are foreseeing a court battle. Especially if it's a court battle against denied preclearance. Though not in those parts of the Atlanta Metro with sizable Hispanic populations - Black plurality is going to be absolutely fine there, and is all Scott's ever had. I would assume there will still be a district for Bishop, and unlike some of its former versions it will be Black VAP majority. I haven't drawn it myself yet though, so I may be wrong here, but I would look at getting some of those far southwestern areas out and some of the area east of Macon in, compared to Verily's versions. Not just because there might be a tad fewer Republican votes wasted, but also because we still want to fit a seat for Scott between it and Kingston's seat.

[JacobNC]

GEORGIA: 8-6 DEMOCRATIC GERRYMANDER

***All Democratic districts are majority-minority***



Atlanta Close-up:



District 1 (light green): Southeastern Georgia

Jack Kingston (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

68% John McCain
31% Barack Obama

71% White
21% Black

District 2 (yellow): Southwestern Georgia

Sanford Bishop (D)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

55% Barack Obama
45% John McCain

48% White
45% Black

District 3 (light purple): Stretching from North of Columbus around Atlanta to Gainesville

Lynn Westmoreland (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

68% John McCain
31% Barack Obama

76% White
18% Black

District 4 (gold): East Atlanta (DeKalb)

Hank Johnson (D)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

60% Barack Obama
40% John McCain

47% White
26% Black
19% Hispanic

District 5 (dark green):  Atlanta (Fulton)

John Lewis (D)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

66% Barack Obama
34% John McCain

46% White
40% Black

District 6 (sky blue): Northwest ATL Suburbs

Tom Price (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

71% John McCain
28% Barack Obama

78% White
9% Black

District 7 (gray): East DeKalb, Gwinnett

Rob Woodall (R)
LIKELY DEMOCRAT

56% Barack Obama
44% John McCain

48% White
40% Black

District 8 (blue): South-Central GA

Austin Scott (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

64% John McCain
36% Barack Obama

68% White
25% Black

District 9 (peach): Northeast GA

Tom Graves (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

73% John McCain
26% Barack Obama

83% White
9% Black

District 10 (pink): Stretches from DeKalb to Athens

Paul Broun (R)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC (Likely Dem if Broun is running - Hallelujah!)

54% Barack Obama
45% John McCain

48% White
27% Black
14% Hispanic

District 11 (red): Northwest GA

Phil Gingrey (R)
SAFE REPUBLICAN

70% John McCain
29% Barack Obama

82% White
7% Black

District 12 (bright green): Augusta to Savannah

John Barrow (D)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC - but maybe not for him!

65% Barack Obama
34% John McCain

51% Black
43% White

District 13 (dark blue): West of Atlanta

OPEN DISTRICT (Scott moves to 14th)
LEAN DEMOCRATIC

54% Barack Obama
45% John McCain

49% White
35% Black
11% Hispanic

District 14 (olive): South Atlanta (Clayton)

David Scott (D)
SAFE DEMOCRATIC

64% Barack Obama
35% John McCain

51% Black
38% White

[Dgov]

Lol--Dekalb County GA is literally 82 people short of a full Congressional district.

[freepcrusher]

is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

9-4-1 Georgia map:

State



Atlanta



GA-01 (blue) - 64.1 McCain, 35.2 Obama. (Was 63-36 McCain)
GA-02 (green) - 62.1 Obama, 37.4 McCain, 52.0% black VAP. (Was 54-46 Obama)
GA-03 (purple) - 65.7 McCain, 33.3 Obama. (Was 64-35 McCain)
GA-04 (red) - 85.8 Obama, 13.5 McCain, 56.2% black VAP. (Was 79-21 Obama)
GA-05 (yellow) - 76.0 Obama, 23.1 McCain, 52.8% black VAP. (Was 79-20 Obama)
GA-06 (teal) - 60.9 McCain, 38.0 Obama. (Was 62-37 McCain)
GA-07 (grey) - 60.3 McCain, 38.7 Obama. (Was 60-39 McCain)
GA-08 (tan) - 62.9 McCain, 36.3 Obama. (Was 56-43 McCain)
GA-09 (sky blue) - 71.0 McCain, 27.6 Obama. (Was 75-24 McCain)
GA-10 (magenta) - 58.9 McCain, 40.0 Obama. (Was 61-38 McCain)
GA-11 (light green) - 67.6 McCain, 31.0 Obama. (Was 66-33 McCain)
GA-12 (light purple) - 49.7 Obama, 49.7 McCain, 36.7% black VAP. (Was 54-45 Obama)
GA-13 (pink) - 74.3 Obama, 25.1 McCain, 60.1% black VAP. (Was 71-28 McCain)
GA-14 (brown) - 71.1 McCain, 27.7 Obama.

GA-08 is now out of reach for the Democrats; I tried to maintain or strengthen the other Republican districts as much as possible, but GA-06 and GA-10 slip a little. And GA-12 is now only an Obama district by about 70 votes. It would be much easier if you could just remove Savannah from the district, but that would push Kingston's district up to about 55-45 McCain, and I doubt he'd like that.

[JacobNC]

is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area.

Maybe Dallas or Houston.

I was thinking of drawing a Republican gerrymander to see how black I can make a district.  Currently the blackest district in the US is only around 65% black (in Chicago).  You could probably make an 85-95% black district in South Atlanta.

Also... I made this map a while ago to see how many majority-minority districts I could make.  I only made minor changes when I got the election data, but if you unpack John Lewis & Hank Johnson's districts you might be able to shore up the 10th and 13th.  You may also be able to make a hispanic majority district but I don't know if that would be ideal for a Democratic gerrymander.

[freepcrusher]

is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area.

Maybe Dallas or Houston.

I would agree with Houston. In 1984, there was a district that took in the area inside the 610 loop called the 18th District that gave Walter Mondale 72 percent of the vote. There was also a district right next to it that took in the the memorial villages, river oaks, and the remaining western part of the county called the 7th which gave Reagan 83 percent of the vote.

[Dgov]

is there a metropolitan area as politically diverse as the Atlanta area? You can dry a compact 94% Obama district without trying, but you can also draw a compact 75% McCain district in the northern perimeter of the area.

Most Cities in the South are like that, Atlanta is just big enough for it to be noticeable.  For Example, Birmingham is considered one of the most Liberal Cities in the US (~90% Obama I think), but its Suburbs are also some of the most Conservative in the US (AL-6 was McCain's best Congressional district I think).  It's not as noticeable because Birmingham is only like 200,000 people, and so can't form its own congressional district.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Uh, Birmingham is 24% white. Voted 90% Obama? LOL.

[Dgov]

Uh, Birmingham is 24% white. Voted 90% Obama? LOL.

It's listed as the 19th most Liberal City in the US, right after Philadelphia and right Before St Louis, so Kerry probably got about 80% there.  And those rankings were based on 2004--i.e. before Obama ubercharged Black Southern Turnout.

http://alt.coxnewsweb.com/statesman/metro/081205libs.pdf

Also, this makes it the most Liberal Large City (more than 100,000 people) in a state Obama didn't win

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The authors of that paper seem to be mistaking "Democratic" for "liberal".

[they don't love you like i love you]

What's the most McCain district you can draw in the Atlanta suburbs?



74% McCain.

[Dgov]

What's the most McCain district you can draw in the Atlanta suburbs?



74% McCain.

Cut out Cartersville and add Pickens and Dawson counties (which i think are Atlanta Exurbs now), and you get it up to 76%

[Bacon King]

Dawson and Pickens are both in the Atlanta Metro per the Census Bureau, yeah.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.

[Bacon King]

Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.

Don't remind me!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.

Don't remind me!

Not being familiar with the demographics of that location, were the 2004 numbers more or less Republican then the 2008 numbers?

[freepcrusher]

Ouch, Bacon King's home was 76% McCain. And I thought my home in Bismarck, ND was bad enough.

Don't remind me!

Not being familiar with the demographics of that location, were the 2004 numbers more or less Republican then the 2008 numbers?

probably more republican. Obama did better in pretty much all sub or ex urban areas in the country.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Barrow County definitely swung toward Obama.

[Bacon King]

My precinct in 2008: 77.97% McCain
My precinct in 2004: 82.65% Bush

Neither total includes early/absentee votes. Including those, it probably increases the swing by a couple more percent.

[Yelnoc]

My precinct in 2008: 58.6% McCain.

I couldn't find 2004 data, but I assume there would have been a ten point swing in Bush's favor, considering that a) He performed better overall and b) there has been and still are several large waves of emigrants flooding my town, mostly from the northeast though some, like myself, are from out west.

I only read the first page and the last page of this thread, so, where do people think the two new districts will be created from?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state.

[Yelnoc]

Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state.

Whoops.  You're right, it is only one.  I'm just thinking about what part of the metro area will be sliced up.  I live on the border between the suburbs and the exurbs and was hoping for some more competitive elections.

[Yelnoc]

So, here is my attempt at a Gerrymandered Democratic District.  Every single district voted for 90% or over for Obama, except for two that I was forced to include because they were encircled; both were in the 80's.

97.5% for Obama in 2008
87.9% Black in the 18+ category