US House Redistricting: Georgia

[krazen1211]

Here's an evil idea- putting the black parts of Albany, Columbus, Macon, AND Augusta  all in the 2nd district. I've been toying around with it on the app and it can actually be done pretty easily; it can be done in two ways. First, it could cut across the northern edge of the black belt all the way from Alabama to South Carolina and fit three full districts south of it (with an extension the width of a single county cutting down to Albany). Alternatively, you could give Bishop more of his old territory and a cleaner-looking district, but it would require one of the south districts to awkwardly skim the SC border through Augusta and take in the white suburbs to the north. Either way, it eliminates Barrow, prevents a Marshall comeback, and provides a ~55% black VRA district for Bishop (and with enough of his old territory that he'd be pretty safe from a primary challenge by someone more liberal).

Will post maps.   

That's precisely why I drew the same thing with Albany, Macon, Augusta, and Savannah instead. It has the same effect, and Columbus is easy enough to swallow in the 9th.

[Bacon King]

Toying around with the 2009 ACS estimates, it's actually very easy to make both the 2nd and the 12th majority black...



1st (dark blue): 70% white, 23% black
2nd (green): 53% black, 43% white
8th (medium blue): 66% white, 28% black
12th (light blue): 52% black, 44% white

Can/would the DOJ sue to force something like this, since it's possible?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?

[Verily]

What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?

The requirements are sort of vague. They have to represent communities of interest, which means no maps that stretch tiny spindles across states to create minority majority seats. For example, Corinne Brown's seat would never be required--although the Florida GOP wanted to draw it to pack in Democrats, so there was no suit forcing its creation. I think BK's map suggests that communities of interest would be met, especially as the Richmond-Savannah link exists even now, and Macon is not far outside of Bishop's current seat.

[krazen1211]

What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?

Pretty much 8 justices rule to favor their party, and Kennedy figures out what he wants. It really depends on how hard both sides want to play.

[muon2]

What are the VRA requirements for an area to need two such VRA districts? And what line would the Supreme Court take on them?

In De Grandy (1994), the SCOTUS ruled that a state is not obligated to create more minority districts than would be expected based on the proportion of that minority in the state.

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So, as I posted earlier, the magic number for GA is 4 CDs to avoid a section 2 challenge. GA is a section 5 state and requires preclearance. Typically this is done by filing with DoJ. However, the state can also file its proposed district changes with the Federal District Court of DC, and skip DoJ. I presume that the DC Court would look to the section 2 standard set in De Grandy.

[Bacon King]

Ah, missed this post earlier.

How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?

Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win.

Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites.

[Bacon King]

Also, The State Senate PPT lost an intra-party fight with Lt. Governor Cagle regarding, among other things, control over redistricting. This means that all three men in control of the process will be from the Atlanta Metro area. Not sure what effects that will have in the south.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Ah, missed this post earlier.

How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?

Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win.

Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites.

That sounds interesting but for right now, I am just wonding how Republican a 63% white district in South Ga would be since someone said that your idea to undo Barrow would make Kingston vulnerable.

[Bacon King]

Ah, missed this post earlier.

How Republican are South GA Whites, BK? 75%? 80%?

Depends on where in South GA, exactly- Savannah has some white liberals just like, say, Charleston does. 70% GOP sounds about right for Chatham whites, yes. Other counties like Laurens or Baldwin still have some blue dog Dems locally, with whites also voting around 70% GOP; the white Democratic candidates rely on the black voters to win.

Besides that, though, in most places whites are about 80-90% Republican. I'm actually working on a map right now that displays the white percentage of a county minus the percent McCain got- basically a rough measurement of how Republican a given county's whites are. I'll post it here when I'm done; notably though I've discovered some counties (Bleckley and Calhoun so far) actually have a greater percentage McCain than of whites. Of course one must keep in mind that whites have a higher turnout than blacks, but still that has to be a McCain vote of at least 90% among those whites.

That sounds interesting but for right now, I am just wonding how Republican a 63% white district in South Ga would be since someone said that your idea to undo Barrow would make Kingston vulnerable.

Kingston would be fine with a 63% white district. First off, there wouldn't be any change in the voting patterns of the district's white- the relatively moderate white vote within Savannah would be cancelled out by the especially conservative Savannah suburbs. Kingston routinely gets around 70% of the vote in his 72% white district; a 63% white district would still keep him safe in even a very rough election.

[Bacon King]

Okay, I've toyed around with the 2010 data for a few minutes in Dave's app; it looks like making either the 2nd or 12th into a 50% black VAP district will require a pretty ugly gerrymander.

However, a glimpse at the Atlanta metro gives me the impression that drawing four black districts there could be done a great deal more simply than with the ACS data- possibly with the districts even looking somewhat clean.

When I wake up tomorrow I'll try a map.

[krazen1211]

Okay, I've toyed around with the 2010 data for a few minutes in Dave's app; it looks like making either the 2nd or 12th into a 50% black VAP district will require a pretty ugly gerrymander.

However, a glimpse at the Atlanta metro gives me the impression that drawing four black districts there could be done a great deal more simply than with the ACS data- possibly with the districts even looking somewhat clean.

When I wake up tomorrow I'll try a map.

It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia.

[Brittain33]

It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia.

Have you tried to do this? I wonder what the outcome would be. 1+2+8+12 = almost exactly four districts at the current target, but I could see moving some of the 8th's northern territory into an Atlanta exurban district and having it and the 10th take up much of what remains in 12 while moving the rest of Savannah in to the 1st. Paul Broun and Austin Scott wouldn't be reps for life, but it could be safe enough.

[krazen1211]

It almost seems to me like the 12th should be dissolved entirely and relocated. There's a lot of population loss in South Georgia.

Have you tried to do this? I wonder what the outcome would be. 1+2+8+12 = almost exactly four districts at the current target, but I could see moving some of the 8th's northern territory into an Atlanta exurban district and having it and the 10th take up much of what remains in 12 while moving the rest of Savannah in to the 1st. Paul Broun and Austin Scott wouldn't be reps for life, but it could be safe enough.

Vaguely. The inital idea I had was to just loop through counties from Savannah to Augusta to Macon to Albany. It turns out that the connecting counties have lost too much black population for such a district to be 50% black VAP anymore without hacking precincts.

Instead, I started toying around with running the 8th east rather than north. Scott and Kingston would split Savannah and each would end up with a ~65% white 28% black district. The new 12th becomes an Atlanta exurb/Augusta based district that also goes sidewards and sits in the center of the map; also ending up at about 65/28.

Macon just slides into the 2nd, or if you really want to push the envelope, the 13th. It ends up looking like something like Bacon posted in reply 16.

[Bacon King]

With the Southern part of the state losing population, one of the four existing districts down there will basically be pushed northwards as the other districts take its territory. The above map turns the 8th district into a black majority district by losing all the territory south of Macon and pushing a bit into the Atlanta metro.

It's then very simple to create three other black majority districts in the Atlanta area, thus fulfilling GA's four "expected" VRA districts, allowing the 2nd and 12th to be easily taken from their incumbents.

I'm not sure if this map messes with any Republican incumbents; the lines might have to be moved a mile or so around Lawrenceville (Gwinnett) for Woodall and in Marrietta (Cobb) for Gingrey, but that wouldn't be a problem.


VAP%:

dark green
50.0% black (actually 50.013% so passes Gingles)
37.8% white
7.9% hispanic

light green
50.7% black
33.7% white
9.9% hispanic

yellow
51.1% black
24.5% white
15.6% hispanic
6.9% asian

gray
50.1% black
42.1% white
4.4% hispanic


I'm gonna try to turn this into a full map now.

[krazen1211]

With the Southern part of the state losing population, one of the four existing districts down there will basically be pushed northwards as the other districts take its territory. The above map turns the 8th district into a black majority district by losing all the territory south of Macon and pushing a bit into the Atlanta metro.

It's then very simple to create three other black majority districts in the Atlanta area, thus fulfilling GA's four "expected" VRA districts, allowing the 2nd and 12th to be easily taken from their incumbents.

I'm not sure if this map messes with any Republican incumbents; the lines might have to be moved a mile or so around Lawrenceville (Gwinnett) for Woodall and in Marrietta (Cobb) for Gingrey, but that wouldn't be a problem.


VAP%:

dark green
50.0% black (actually 50.013% so passes Gingles)
37.8% white
7.9% hispanic

light green
50.7% black
33.7% white
9.9% hispanic

yellow
51.1% black
24.5% white
15.6% hispanic
6.9% asian

gray
50.1% black
42.1% white
4.4% hispanic


I'm gonna try to turn this into a full map now.

The Dark green district could probably snake down through the 2 black counties down to Columbus rather than taking Westmoreland's Republicans.

[Bacon King]

CD1: Kingston's seat stays pretty similar. Safe R. 66.7% white, 25.2% black.

CD2: Austin Scott facing off in favorable conditions against Sanford Bishop. This district is basically the old 8th district's portion south of Macon, (the half of the district Scott is from, so more of a personal vote too) plus Bishop's home of Albany, and a swath of territory from the old 2nd district he lost 2-1 last year (and he got only about half of the vote in these counties in 2008, in spite of winning with 69% against a no-name challenger). Note that the whites in this part of the state have become very Republican in the last decade. Strong R. 58.6% white, 34.7% black.

CD3: Westmoreland's district taking in the rest of Bishop's old district. It has enough of the old 3rd to keep Westmoreland comfortable; potential demographic changes will only make it easier for him. Safe R. 62.7% white, 30.3% black.

CD4: Hank Johnson keeps a safe district that extends out include to minority areas in Snellville and Lawrenceville to protect the Woodall from shifting demographics in the future. Safe D, VRA district. 51.1% black, 24.5% white, 15.6% hispanic, 6.9% asian.

CD5: Lewis's district stays safe, but extends out to central Cobb now to keep Gingrey's district safer. Safe D, VRA district. 50.7% black, 33.7% white, 9.9% hispanic.

CD6: Price's district shifts south to take in some more liberal white areas in Atlanta, but it's extremely wealthy, white, and conservative north Fulton base stays the same. Safe/strong R. 65.6% white, 12.2% hispanic, 12.0% black, 8.4% asian.

CD7: Woodall keeps a safe district that'll be safe for the decade thanks to losing Gwinnett's heavily minority areas in return for white and conservative outer suburbs. Safe R. 66.8% white, 12.5% black, 10% asian.

CD8: Like I said in the last post, The old 8th loses its southern half and gains on its northern end to become a VRA district. It'd be an open seat; Jim Marshall could actually win it if no major black candidates run. Strong D (may become vulnerable to a takeover later in the decade) 50.1% black, 42.1% white.

CD9: Tom Graves' safe district. yawn. Safe R. 84.5% white.

CD10: Broun's district that he'd probably lose if challenged by a Hall County Republican. The GA GOP establishment hates Broun, and the redistricting trifecta (Gov, Lt. Gov [as head of State Senate], Speaker) are all from Hall County, so this kills two birds with one stone. Safe R. 78.1% white, 9.6% hispanic, 9.3% black.

CD11: Safe seat for Gingrey; basically a mirror of Woodall in the 7th. Safe R. 78.7% white, 10.3% black.

CD12: The district to get rid of Barrow. Takes away the black parts of Augusta and replaces it with plenty of superconservative rural territory. Strong R. 60.3% white, 32.8% black.

CD13: David Scott's district. Currently safe D but demographic change could make it competitive, especially for someone scandal-prone like Scott. Strong D. 50.01% black, 37.7% white.

CD14: open seat, kind of an awkward district but necessary given everything around it. Besides, IIRC there's a big mover-and-shaker in the state legislature in this area really wanting a district. 64% white, 29.9% black.

So there you have it. 8R-4D Georgia with the four D's all VRA Atlanta districts, all eight Republicans pretty safe and in familiar districts, and even a possible pickup opportunity for the Republicans to maybe hold a VRA district for two years if given a "perfect storm" situation.

Thoughts?

[krazen1211]

This is my new aggressive map.






Writeup here. I'll retype it later.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/228/georgia-redistricting-1031

[Bacon King]

My comments:

-if you're trying to get rid of Bishop there's much easier ways to do it (see my map)
-regarding putting into the 6th district parts of Atlanta that "never should have been in the 5th at all", do note that those areas looked very different demographically in 2000 than they do now.
-7th district won't happen. Hall County will either have no incumbent or an incumbent the state party hates (Broun).
-Graves actually lives in the eastern part of Gordon County so you've cut him out of his district.
-at 30% black Georgia's gonna have a 4th black district; given how easy a 4th minority district is to make I don't see how they'd pass preclearance otherwise.
-it's much easier and simpler to push Columbus into the 3rd than put it in your crazy 13th district
-your map looks FAR more gerrymandered than it really needs to be, especially in North GA. Note, for example, that my map's districts are gerrymandered to hell and back, but for the most part aren't overtly ugly on the map. Style matters as much as function with these things, at least as far as a potential media response is concerned.

[krazen1211]

Thanks for the comments.

Per the 2000 census data, that area around Buckhead (and to the north) between I-75 and I-85 was always predominantly white and wealthy. It's still like that 10 years later, I believe, or at least it was last year when I visited.

The Hall County thing bothered me, too, but it could be solved with an uglier Gwinnett chop. The entire scheme of splitting Gwinnett in half and anchoring with Forscythe and Hall can remain; you just have to put Lawrenceville in the Forscythe district.

Good point about Graves though; at second glance, that county split is probably unnecessary even if it exists now. I swapped some Cobb precincts and put Gordon county entirely in the 9th.

As it stands, I weakened Broun enough such that he might lose. That district is only 58% McCain; same with the 12th.

Keep in mind that Section 2 has never required the maximum number of minority districts. I certainly don't believe in needlessly giving away a 4th district when it doesn't exist now, and Democrats can easily be packed into 3.

[Bacon King]

Per the 2000 census data, that area around Buckhead (and to the north) between I-75 and I-85 was always predominantly white and wealthy. It's still like that 10 years later, I believe, or at least it was last year when I visited.

Okay, Buckhead, yeah. I didn't look at the map that closely and thought you were talking about somewhere closer to Midtown.

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True, and it wouldn't be that hard to do, I was just pointing it out for ya.

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To be fair, I only learned which town Graves lives in when I was making my own map earlier today

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I have no idea where in Athens-Clarke County Broun resides, but the easiest way to shore up the 10th for you would be to place minority areas of Clarke and the librul bastion of UGA while flipping some territory north of Hall County into the 10th.

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Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created.

[krazen1211]

Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created.

The way I see it: Deal, Kingston, Gingrey, Norwood, Price, and Westmoreland all really, really hate section 5 and tried to get rid of it in 2006. They'll sue.

[Bacon King]

I've retooled my map a little bit. Goodness, I'll probably keep at this until I have it perfect, just like Torie when he does this.



Close-up of the Atlanta metro:



Highlights:

- I've realized that Kingston's district can hold all of Chatham Co. and still remain a safe seat.
- From that, I've been able to take the 12th district permanently out of Barrow's hands.
- I redid the four minority districts so they look nicer. Note that while CD5 does look a bit odd extending into Gwinnett like that, it does so by pushing up around I-85 so it actually makes a bit of sense.
- Although it probably doesn't matter that much, I gave CD6 territory in the very religious, conservative, and suburban Cobb/Cherokee Counties to minimize any affect that white liberals in the south of the district would have.
- I did what I could to shore up Westmoreland more by giving him more of his current district's conservative suburbs. It's more than 8% less black than his current district so I think he'll be okay.
- Gave Broun a district separate from the Hall district; note the Athens split (that is, interestingly almost identical to how Athens is currently split by GA Sen. districts)

Demographics! (groups w/ over 10% are listed)

CD1: 60.5% white, 29.7% black (VAP: 63.4% white, 28.3% black)
CD2: 54.7% white, 37.1% black (VAP: 57.8% white, 35.4% black)
CD3: 59.7% white, 31.7% black (VAP: 62.0% white, 30.5% black)
CD4: 52.1% black, 24.6% white (VAP: 50.1% black, 38.2% white)
CD5: 51.4% black, 24.9% white, 14.6% hispanic (VAP: 50.1% black, 28.4% white, 12.5% hispanic)
CD6: 66.6% white, 13.8% hispanic, 11.2% black (VAP: 68.5% white, 12.1% hispanic, 11.4% black)
CD7: 62.7% white, 12.3% hispanic, 11.8% asian, 11.0% black (VAP: 65.1% white, 11.7% asian, 11.1% hispanic, 10.6% black)
CD8: 52.3% black, 34.8% white (VAP: 50.2% black, 38.5% white)
CD9: 81.3% white, 11.0% hispanic (VAP: 84.3% white)
CD10: 60.1% white, 31.7% black (62.8% white, 30.1% black)
CD11: 75.0% white, 14.5% black

.... and then I accidentally X'd out of the app. Derp. The 13th was demographically identical to the other three VRA districts, the 12th was about 64% white, and of course the 14th was very white.

[Bacon King]

Section 2 isn't the issue here; Section 5 is Georgia's not passing preclearance with only three minority districts, not when a fourth can be so easily created.

The way I see it: Deal, Kingston, Gingrey, Norwood, Price, and Westmoreland all really, really hate section 5 and tried to get rid of it in 2006. They'll sue.

Oh, I don't doubt they'll try, but do realize it almost certainly won't work.

I remember Westmoreland getting extremely excited in 2009, saying that it looked like Section 5 would soon be on the way out, and then two weeks later the Supreme Court decided 8-1 that the 2006 Section 5 extention was constitutional. Doubt a lawsuit would work for Deal on that front

They could try to bail out, but while it would possibly be successful it wouldn't be done in time for 2012 districts.

But yeah, let's assume that Georgia tries to submit a 3-VRA district map for preclearance because this state's Republicans really want to fight the Feds on everything. Let's also assume that most likely, after a potentially costly legal battle, Georgia will end up being required to draw a 4-VRA district map. Krazen, let's assume you are attempting to model the former while I'm attempting to model the latter

Also, since it seems to be only the two of us following this thread right now, do you have any comments/criticism besides the number of VRA districts? I'd like to improve this thing some more.

[krazen1211]

Oh, I don't doubt they'll try, but do realize it almost certainly won't work.

I remember Westmoreland getting extremely excited in 2009, saying that it looked like Section 5 would soon be on the way out, and then two weeks later the Supreme Court decided 8-1 that the 2006 Section 5 extention was constitutional. Doubt a lawsuit would work for Deal on that front

They could try to bail out, but while it would possibly be successful it wouldn't be done in time for 2012 districts.

But yeah, let's assume that Georgia tries to submit a 3-VRA district map for preclearance because this state's Republicans really want to fight the Feds on everything. Let's also assume that most likely, after a potentially costly legal battle, Georgia will end up being required to draw a 4-VRA district map. Krazen, let's assume you are attempting to model the former while I'm attempting to model the latter

Also, since it seems to be only the two of us following this thread right now, do you have any comments/criticism besides the number of VRA districts? I'd like to improve this thing some more.

I think you don't have the Republican killer instinct.

Well, I think if you're going to go with 4 VRA districts, the 4th one won't be black, but rather a
Hispanic/Asian coalition type sitting in North Dekalb/Gwinnett, combined with Forscythe that a Republican is a lot more likely to win.

But given 4 black districts:

Ultimately a 4 black district map should probably retain 1 in South Georgia, imo. You had a concept for it in the old maps a couple pages back with the arching district that sucks up all the blacks outside the Atlanta Metro. It's just ultimately much easier to use North Georgia to crack areas like Cobb County. If you're going to have 4 black districts in the Atlanta metro, 1 of them shouldn't touch Dekalb/Fulton/Clayton at all. Your initial CD-8 is definitely better than your new CD-8; see if you can create a black or minority district that runs from Gwinnett (Centerville, I think?) to Bibb without touching those counties.


I think you messed too much with important people. The biggest problem with an 11-3 Georgia map is that guys like Jack Kingston will scream if you tried to give them the rest of Chatham County. Not that he couldn't win easily, but he's selfish like that. You also cut Gingrey and Price out of Cobb/North Fulton a lot. On my map, I tried to mess with the freshmen more and the veterans less.