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MatthewZD
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« Reply #125 on: May 30, 2011, 09:07:21 pm »
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I grew up in Calhoun, right in the middle of carpet country.  It's always surprised me that there was never a district centered around the Dalton-Rome-Cartersville triangle. 
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If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldn’t last long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington?... if an idea works, it really doesn’t matter if it has an ‘R’ or ‘D’ next to it ... Because this election isn’t about liberal versus conservative. It’s not about left versus right. It’s about the future versus the past.
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MatthewZD
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« Reply #126 on: June 03, 2011, 08:27:14 am »
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I decided to try my hand at reapportionment and all I have to say is "yeesh, pass the Aleve, I've got a headache."  South GA is a challenge trying to get a couple of majority minority districts without them looking like gerrymandered messes. 

However, I did manage a fairly compact complete plurality district in northeast Atlanta.  I'll post a photo of it later on, but it's around Chamblee, Doraville, Tucker, and Duluth stretching down to Redan, Centerville, and Lithonia.  36.9% black, 27.3% white, 23.9% hispanic, and 9.6% Asian. 
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If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldn’t last long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington?... if an idea works, it really doesn’t matter if it has an ‘R’ or ‘D’ next to it ... Because this election isn’t about liberal versus conservative. It’s not about left versus right. It’s about the future versus the past.
Mark Warner, 2008 DNC
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« Reply #127 on: June 03, 2011, 10:13:49 am »
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Pretty sure Georgia is only gaining one seat. As I understand it, all the power brokers are from north Georgia, so I'm going to guess there. I drew a map a page or two back that stuck a new district in the northeastern corner of the state.

In Georgia, all three of the redistricting trifecta (governor, lt. gov, and speaker) are from Hall County (in Northeast GA) though that county is currently represented by a guy from the northwest corner of the state. The new district will almost certainly be centered around Hall County.
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« Reply #128 on: June 05, 2011, 11:18:58 pm »
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Georgia has 180 State House districts. How many white liberal seats can be drawn?

I have 7. Two in Athens, two in the white part of northern Atlanta, two in DeKalb and one that kind of straddles the border between Atlanta and DeKalb. I haven't finished yet so who knows if there's white liberal enclaves in Savannah or whatever.

What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state.
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MatthewZD
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« Reply #129 on: June 06, 2011, 08:07:35 am »
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What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state.

It's always been a fairly liberal area compared to the rest of the state.  Plus, two colleges - Agnes Scott and Emory - are there so that most likely contributes to the liberal lean of the area. 
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If you ran a company whose only strategy was to tear down the competition, it wouldn’t last long. So why is this wisdom so hard to find in Washington?... if an idea works, it really doesn’t matter if it has an ‘R’ or ‘D’ next to it ... Because this election isn’t about liberal versus conservative. It’s not about left versus right. It’s about the future versus the past.
Mark Warner, 2008 DNC
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« Reply #130 on: June 06, 2011, 09:13:32 am »
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Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.
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« Reply #131 on: June 06, 2011, 09:43:56 am »
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Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence.
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« Reply #132 on: June 06, 2011, 10:41:16 am »
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there are certain areas of Georgia (like in Athens or inside the 285 perimeter) where Obama won the white vote. Considering he only won 23% of the white vote statewide, its disturbing to consider what % of the white vote he won if one takes out those areas. I'm guessing it would be almost as bad as there neighbor to the west.
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« Reply #133 on: June 06, 2011, 12:52:24 pm »
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Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence.

No it's not. Go look at the population map, northern Atlanta and DeKalb County are very white and the white areas have more than enough population for several state house seats considering that they aren't very big.

Savannah obviously has more liberal whites than the most places in the state, but it's tough to draw a Democratic state house seat there without a significant black population. The whitest precinct there that voted for Obama is 80% white and 51% for Obama.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #134 on: June 07, 2011, 04:08:05 am »
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Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

Also, you'll probably find about a state House district's worth of white liberals in Savannah.

How many of those will actually be drawn? The 2 in Athens? It should be easy to put the white liberals in black districts based on residence.

The current map even drowns out the white liberals in Athens. One white liberal district, one (IIRC) plurality black district with a some white liberals, and one district that drowns out some white liberal votes by putting them in a district with the neighboring conservative rural areas.

Also yeah, many (if not most) of the liberal Dekalb/Fulton whites are put into VRA districts.
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« Reply #135 on: June 25, 2011, 03:51:14 pm »
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My unconstitutional plan

10R-4D 9R-5D




GA1 (blue): 70W/20.5B, 66.6/32.7 McCain
GA2 (green): 36W/56.5B, 65.3/34.2 Obama
GA3 (purple): 70W/22B, 66.4/32.7 McCain
GA4 (red): 27W/58B, 80.8/18.4 Obama
GA5 (yellow): 30W/57.5B, 77.6/21.7 Obama
GA6 (teal): 67W/12B, 62.9/35.9 McCain
GA7 (gray): 49W/21B/19H, 59/40.1 McCain
GA8 (blueish): 67W/25B, 67.2/32.1 McCain
GA9 (skyblue): 81W/11H, 70.8/27.9 McCain
GA10 (fuchsia): 79.5W/11B, 71/27.8 McCain
GA11 (light green): 60W/24B/11H, 58.1/40.7 McCain
GA12 (blueish): 42W/49B, 65.4/33.8 Obama
GA13 (peach): 33W/51.5B, 62.5/36.6 Obama
GA14 (gold): 70W/15H, 71.4/27.4 McCain

so 14 districts, none of them closer than 17% presidentially
« Last Edit: June 25, 2011, 07:40:12 pm by RBH »Logged

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« Reply #136 on: June 25, 2011, 07:05:15 pm »
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Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base:



(All race numbers VAP)
1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W
2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B
3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W
4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B
5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B
6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W
7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W
8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W
9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W
10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W
11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W
12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1)
13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B
14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W
« Last Edit: June 25, 2011, 07:07:00 pm by 555 95472 »Logged
krazen1211
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« Reply #137 on: June 26, 2011, 03:18:36 pm »
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Given Muon's comments about the De Grandy decision and the recent Louisiana preclearance, it seems pretty likely that 10-4 with an attack on Barrow will be ruled constitutional. It's possible to get the 12th up to 56% McCain while keeping the 1st, 8th and 10th all at 59/60 without any of the squiggly stuff courts don't like on the borders among these districts, and without any major modifications to the rest of the state. I think this is much more likely than the attack on Bishop discussed earlier in the thread, which would require one of the GOP incumbents to get a much less white district. With all incumbent residences in the district of the same number and the new 14th district in the region of the redistricters' Hall County base:



(All race numbers VAP)
1 (blue): 59/41 McCain, 65% W
2 (forest green): 61/39 Obama, 51% B
3 (purple): 65/34 McCain, 72% W
4 (red): 80/19 Obama, 52% B
5 (yellow): 81/18 Obama, 51% B
6 (dark green north Atlanta): 60/39 McCain, 66% W
7 (grey): 66/33 McCain, 69% W
8 (purply-blue): 60/40 McCain, 64% W
9 (pale blue NW): 70/28 McCain, 84% W
10 (pink): 60/39 McCain, 71% W
11 (light green): 60/39 McCain, 65% W
12 (pale blue central): 56/44 McCain, 61% W (currently D+1)
13 (beige): 70/29 Obama, 57% B
14 (bronze): 74/25 McCain, 78% W

Not a bad plan. Now you just need to unpack the bronze district. You can do that by giving it part of the blueing areas of north Fulton, or by diving it down into central Gwinnett, or by giving it Athens and telling Broun to take a hike by giving him Hall County.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #138 on: June 27, 2011, 09:15:15 am »
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http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/ga-redistricting-maps-may-988985.html

As has been hinted, likely going straight to the court past the DOJ.

Georgia Republicans may bypass the Obama Justice Department and go straight to court after they draw new legislative maps this summer.





Good punishment for the 2000 map.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #139 on: July 11, 2011, 05:39:37 pm »
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A similar map to the above, with a cleaner CD-02.






Uglier elsewhere though. I don't like the Dekalb split.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #140 on: July 29, 2011, 05:43:37 pm »
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Early scuttlebutt: they're going after Barrow, but shoring up Bishop.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #141 on: July 29, 2011, 07:25:05 pm »
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Full disclosure: Jim, this is not the real GA GOP map. This is the map I drew as my estimate of what GA Republicans might do in my May book, “Better Know a District.” – David Wasserman, Cook Political Report.



A good thing too because that map stinks!
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Bacon King
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« Reply #142 on: July 29, 2011, 07:32:30 pm »
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Looks like "influential Georgia Republicans" use Dave's Redistricting App! Cheesy

The analysis at the link is right, though. The seventh district will definitely be made safer than that. Kingston and Broun's districts also look a bit too marginal compared to what the GOP probably wants, but I'm not sure on that; I'll check PVI on the App later.

edit- hadn't seen krazen's post. That explains that.
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« Reply #143 on: July 30, 2011, 08:14:24 pm »
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Georgia has 180 State House districts. How many white liberal seats can be drawn?

I have 7. Two in Athens, two in the white part of northern Atlanta, two in DeKalb and one that kind of straddles the border between Atlanta and DeKalb. I haven't finished yet so who knows if there's white liberal enclaves in Savannah or whatever.

What's with Decatur? I have a 66% white seat around there that was almost 78% for Obama, this is the best performance among whites I've seen for Obama in the state.

Can a white liberal Congressional seat be drawn in the Atlanta area?
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« Reply #144 on: July 30, 2011, 10:33:43 pm »
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Best you could do is something like this:



56.8% white VAP and 58.1% Obama. I padded it with a few uber-black precincts in Atlanta granted, remove those and you can get around 58.3% white VAP and 56.7% Obama. Keep in mind though that this seat would also have a notable Asian and Hispanic population and is only about 20% black VAP, so it's not like the type of seat that is like 56% white and 42% black in which case 58.1% Obama still shows uber-Republican whites.
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« Reply #145 on: July 30, 2011, 11:55:41 pm »
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Here's a solid 9-5 R map. I don't know why Republicans wouldn't want to draw delegation like this. They'd have to concede 2 non-Atlanta Democratic seats, but they'd have 9 seats that Democrats could never win.



GA-01 [Purple] 62.8/36.4 McCain (R+17)
GA-02 [Green ] 56.4/43.0 Obama (D+3)
GA-03 [Blue ] 63.0/36.0 McCain (R+17)
GA-04 [Yellow] 78.2/21.1 Obama (D+25) 52.0% black VAP
GA-05 [Teal] 82.1/17.2 Obama (D+29) 54.1% black VAP
GA-06 [Crimson] 64.2/34.6 McCain (R+18)
GA-07 [Silver] 60.2/38.9 McCain (R+14)
GA-08 [Red ] 61.1/38.2 McCain (R+15)
GA-09 [Navy] 71.4/27.3 McCain (R+25)
GA-10 [Pink] 64.3/34.7 McCain (R+18)
GA-11 [Lime] 62.7/36.0 McCain (R+17)
GA-12 [Turquoise] 60.0/39.2 Obama (D+7)
GA-13 [Salmon] 65.5/33.6 Obama (D+13) 48.3% black VAP
GA-14 [OliveDrab] 72.2/26.5 McCain (R+26)

Broun would be drawn out of his district because Athens was needed to pack GA-12. He'd still be ok running in GA-10.
I'm not sure if I drew Jack Kingston out of GA-01, again, I packed most of Savannah into GA-12, but his new district would be rather familiar territory for him.

There really aren't any marginal seats; I don't see any districts flipping over the 10 years.

The weakest Republican seat is 60.2% McCain; decidedly out of reach for Democrats.

Conversely, Sanford Bishop has the weakest Democratic seat. He rode out 2010 in a less favorable district, so he could hang around until 2020 if he wanted.


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« Reply #146 on: August 05, 2011, 09:05:54 am »
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Exactly; Decatur is not culturally Southern at all.

I don't think I would take the description that far (liberal white Southerners still typically identify with Southern culture, as do most Southern blacks). 

But yeah, Decauter whites are pretty 'liberal' overall; its commonly referred to by local detractors (such as myself) as 'The People's Republic of Decauter'.  To give people an idea, they actually mandate a specific (and inferior) brand of garbage bag be used (presumably for environmental reasons), or else they won't pick it up.
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« Reply #147 on: August 08, 2011, 08:52:30 pm »
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http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html

Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another.




Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again.
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« Reply #148 on: August 08, 2011, 09:31:41 pm »
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http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html

Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another.




Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again.

The Fulton-DeKalb area did not have the robust growth of the outer suburbs, so some seats had to be eliminated. It is a neat trick to claim "regression" if a Black seat is eliminated, while pleading the "purging of White Democrats" if no Black seats are eliminated.
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« Reply #149 on: August 08, 2011, 09:42:47 pm »
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http://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-politics-elections/democratic-leader-accuses-gop-1088555.html

Republicans who are controlling the process, she said, plan to create 49 "majority-minority" House districts, an increase of seven over the current configuration. "They accomplished this by purging the state of Georgia of white Democrats," Abrams, who is black, said. "Almost without exception in the Fulton-DeKalb area, if you are a white Democrat who is near an African-American, you were paired and you are going to have to run against one another.




Amusing! Suddenly the Democrats don't believe in minority districts again.

The Fulton-DeKalb area did not have the robust growth of the outer suburbs, so some seats had to be eliminated. It is a neat trick to claim "regression" if a Black seat is eliminated, while pleading the "purging of White Democrats" if no Black seats are eliminated.

Yes sir! At least 4 districts in the Senate (1 in Atlanta, 1 in Dekalb, 2 in South Georgia) should all be dissolved and relocated to the growing suburbs.
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