Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 20, 2017, 07:48:01 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  UK local by-elections 2011
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 14 Print
Author Topic: UK local by-elections 2011  (Read 60360 times)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« on: January 01, 2011, 09:52:47 am »
Ignore

The year's first UK local by-election is on 6 January:

PARK, Windsor and Maidenhead; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor who has moved out of the borough.  This ward covers the southern fringes of the royal town of Windsor and also includes part of Windsor Great Park and the Legoland theme park.  At the last election in 2007 (results here) the Conservatives gained the ward from the Liberal Democrats on a big swing, polling 62% to 34% for the Lib Dems and 4% for Labour.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2011, 03:29:41 pm »
Ignore

Result from Windsor:
C 64.4 LD 15.8 Lab 15.1 Ind 4.8

A further big swing from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives.  Eight years ago the Lib Dems won this ward with 54% of the vote.

Oh, and here is the new councillor: http://www.waitrose.com/food/celebritiesandarticles/homecooks/0403069.aspx
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Harry Hayfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1938
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 0.00

P
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2011, 09:26:47 am »
Ignore

Result from Windsor:
C 64.4 LD 15.8 Lab 15.1 Ind 4.8

Change since 2007

Con +2% Lib Dem -18% Lab +11% Ind +5%
Swing: 10% from Lib Dem to Con / 15% from Lib Dem to Lab
Logged

You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9010
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2011, 01:12:23 pm »
Ignore

Result from Windsor:
C 64.4 LD 15.8 Lab 15.1 Ind 4.8

Change since 2007

Con +2% Lib Dem -18% Lab +11% Ind +5%
Swing: 10% from Lib Dem to Con / 15% from Lib Dem to Lab

And the Liberals did amazing in the 2007 locals! Wink
Logged

minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58547
India


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2011, 01:15:18 pm »
Ignore

I suppose the turnout - and the previous Labour result, and, actually, the new Labour result too - is just too low for us to draw any such conclusions... but this is the first result (that I noticed) of it looking like LibDem voters going over (back) to Labour even in the True Blue places - we've seen plenty of it in places where Labour and LDs are the only parties that matter, but in these kind of places Labour had seemed as dead as ever since 2005 so far.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2011, 06:45:19 pm »
Ignore

By-elections on 13 January:

OLDHAM EAST AND SADDLEWORTH - see separate thread.

CAMBORNE NORTH, Cornwall; caused by the resignation of an ex-Conservative councillor who has been charged with sexual assault.  This ward contains a relatively small part of the mining town of Camborne, together with the villages of South Tehidy and Tolvaddon Downs on the other side of the bypass (in Illogan parish), and a small set of terraces adjacent to the South Crofty tin mine (in Carn Brea parish), which was Cornwall's last tin mine when it closed in 1998.

Prior to 2009 this area was split between Illogan North and Illogan South wards on Kerrier district council.  In 2007 Illogan North elected two Lib Dems and a Liberal Party councillor (representing a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives) and Illogan South elected a Labour councillor and two Independents (representing an Independent gain from Mebyon Kernow, who didn't defend their seat).  On the old county council the area was split between Carn Brea (which was safely Labour in 2005) and Illogan and Portreath (which in 2005 elected an independent with just 23% of the vote over the Lib Dems, Liberals, Conservatives, Labour and another Independent; Labour polled 16% in fifth place).

The Illogan area seems to be the main predecessor and looking at the 2009 result for the new unitary Cornwall council Camborne North has inherited its fissiparousness.  The Labour councillor for the area retired and the Liberal tried his luck in a different ward, but it was the Conservatives who capitalised - the Lib Dems suffering unpopularity over the new unitary council.  The 2009 result was C 36.9 LD 19.4 Ind 15.9 MK 14.8 Lab 10.7 Lib 2.2.  Last year's general election result - in which the Conservatives narrowly gained the Camborne and Redruth seat - and the national polls could indicate further problems for the Lib Dems.

HUMBLEYARD, Norfolk County Council; caused by the resignation of the Conservative Leader of the Council who is off to do voluntary work in India.  This division is directly south-west of Norwich and is based on the villages of Cringleford and Hethersett on the road to Newmarket.  The 2009 result shows a safe Conservative division after the Lib Dems fell back badly; this is part of the safe Conservative South Norfolk constituency.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2011, 06:29:31 pm »
Ignore

And Labour representation returns to Cornwall after a gap of about a year and a half as Camborne North is gained:

Labour 33.1, Con 28.1, LDem 21.6, Lib 8.4, MK 4.4, Green 4.3
Logged



Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2011, 04:07:50 pm »
Ignore

Humbleyard was a Tory hold of course.

By-elections on 20th January:

BAGULEY, Manchester; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  Part of Cheshire until 1931, this ward is basically Wythenshawe west of the motorway and most of the housing is post-war and originally part of the Wythenshawe Estate.  The ward includes Wythenshawe Hospital and most of the large Roundthorn Industrial Estate.  Politically this is a safe Labour ward; from 2006-8 the Tories ran second; in 2010 the Lib Dems took second place but were still 23% behind Labour who won with 47% in a crowded field.  Seven candidates are contesting the by-election: the three main parties, UKIP, the Greens, the BNP and an Independent.

MARL, Conwy, North Wales; caused by the the resignation of a Conservative councillor for health reasons.  This two-seat ward covers the western half of the town of Llandudno Junction, which in profiles of the Aberconwy constituency is inexorably prefixed with the phrase "working-class".  Not that you'd guess this from the 2004 and 2008 results as there is a Lib Dem councillor here who has a very large personal vote and always tops the poll easily.  In 2004 he was the only opposition to the two Labour candidates; however in 2008 the sitting Labour councillor stood as an independent and finished a credible fourth, well ahead of the official Labour candidate; however, he lost his seat to the Conservatives whose candidates finished second and third.  Al will probably know more, but I would suspect that the poor Labour result in 2008 is very misleading and they have a good chance of making a gain here.  Candidates here are C/LD/Lab/Ind; yet again no Plaid candidate in a seat they hold in the Assembly.

OLTON, Solihull, West Midlands; caused by the death of Lib Dem councillor Honor Cox.  This ward is located about five miles south east from Birmingham city centre on the Warwick Road and the railway line to Leamington Spa.  I know nothing of the area, but this ward borders Acocks Green ward in Birmingham and politically is very similar, with a solid Lib Dem lead in the last few years.  In 2010 the Lib Dems led the Conservatives by 51-34.   With this vacancy and another Lib Dem Solihull councillor having been kicked off the council for non-attendance, if the Conservatives can make a gain they may be able to topple the LD/Lab coalition which runs Solihull at the moment.  Candidates are the three main parties plus the Greens and a Resident.

TONBRIDGE, Kent County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This is an urban two-seat county division which has exactly the same boundaries as the old Tonbridge Urban District and current parish.  The town is a large market town on the River Medway and an important railway junction on the South Eastern Main Line, 30 miles from Charing Cross station.  The most recent event of importance in the town was the 2006 Securitas depot robbery when more than 53 million in cash was stolen.  Politically this is a very Conservative town; the party holds all fifteen district council seats and won both county seats in 2009 with 47%, way ahead of their nearest challengers, the Lib Dems on 16%.  There are candidates from the three main parties, UKIP and the Greens.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2011, 05:46:04 pm »
Ignore

Marl is the less working class half of Junction (Pensarn ward, which includes the train station, is very working class though) probably because it merges into seamlessly into Deganwy, though it is more working class than not and (obviously) more working class than average for the Aberconwy constituency. But, yeah, the result from last time is very misleading (not that that's unusual even in 'urban' wards in North West Wales).
Logged



minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58547
India


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2011, 07:22:29 pm »
Ignore

Presumably we're dealing with the kind of "working class" area you expect amid wealthy tourists and retirees... service sector that is, plus perhaps some more working class retirees as well (who wanted to move to the Welsh Coast but could only afford Junction)?
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2011, 07:43:59 pm »
Ignore

Presumably we're dealing with the kind of "working class" area you expect amid wealthy tourists and retirees... service sector that is, plus perhaps some more working class retirees as well (who wanted to move to the Welsh Coast but could only afford Junction)?

There's a bit of the latter, yeah, and especially in this end of the town.* But Junction was originally a railway town (shocking I know) and still has that feel to it (though not to the extent of Holyhead or even parts of Bangor). As for employment structure, dead on for this ward but there's still some manufacturing employment to speak of in the east of the town (Pensarn ward). Construction was a sizeable employer before the slump; nearly as much as hotels, catering and the like.

*Though the area on the North coast that's really like that is Abergele.
Logged



minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58547
India


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2011, 08:59:27 pm »
Ignore

Well yeah, construction is a word that's just plain missing from my post.

With a name like "Junction", you'd figure it's a railway town. And there is a railway junction there. Of sorts. But I don't suppose it still employs anybody of note.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2011, 11:47:37 pm »
Ignore

No more than any other small town with a proper railway station (rather than just a platform).
Logged



Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2011, 08:28:50 pm »
Ignore

Thursday's results:

BAGULEY: Lab 70.8 C 11.4 UKIP 5.4 BNP 3.7 LD 3.7 Grn 3.6 Ind 1.4.  Big Lab hold, swing 14% C to Lab.  Huge collapse in the Lib Dem vote which was 24% last time, most of this went to Labour.  The BNP and LD candidates tied on 52 votes with the Greens one vote behind.

MARL: LD 40.4 C 28.1 Lab 22.5 Ind 9.0.  LD gain from Conservative.  Swing 8% LD to C although this is pretty meaningless.

OLTON: LD 39.7 C 39.4 Lab 9.4 Res 7.6 Grn 3.8.  LD hold with a majority of 9 votes; 8% swing LD to C.  The new councillor is press officer for Solihull's Lib Dem MP Lorely Burt.

TONBRIDGE: C 56.6 Lab 21.3 LD 9.8 Grn 6.4 UKIP 5.9.  Easy Tory hold; swing 1% C to Lab.

There is one by-election on Thursday 27th:

OLIVERS BATTERY AND BADGER FARM, Winchester; caused by the death of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of England's more romantic ward names, Olivers Battery was originally an Iron Age earthwork south-west of Winchester; later, during the English Civil War, it was the base for Oliver Cromwell's siege of the city.  Development here came after the First World War when a former Army veterinary hospital was gradually built on, and the ward is now part of the Winchester built-up area.  Politically this is a safe Lib Dem ward: last May's result was LD 60.2 C 35.1 Lab 4.7.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12159
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2011, 01:52:46 pm »
Ignore

OLTON: LD 39.7 C 39.4 Lab 9.4 Res 7.6 Grn 3.8.  LD hold with a majority of 9 votes; 8% swing LD to C.  The new councillor is press officer for Solihull's Lib Dem MP Lorely Burt.

It seems odd that Respect would field a candidate there.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2011, 02:04:30 pm »
Ignore

They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.
Logged



Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12159
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2011, 02:31:15 pm »
Ignore

They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.

Ah. Tongue
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2011, 03:29:18 pm »
Ignore

They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.

Ah. Tongue

You didn't seriously think Respect could poll 7% in Solihull, did you? Grin
Logged



Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12159
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2011, 03:36:01 pm »
Ignore

They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.

Ah. Tongue

You didn't seriously think Respect could poll 7% in Solihull, did you? Grin

Well, it's a by-election, so....
Logged
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2011, 07:06:11 am »
Ignore

Oliver's Battery and Badger Farm was a safe Lib Dem hold in the end.  LD 53.9 C 36.4 Lab 9.8 (and that's the best Labour performance here for years).  Turnout was very high for a local by-election, 51.2%.

By-elections on 3 February:

AMBERLEY AND WOODCHESTER, Stroud, Glos, and RODBOROUGH, Gloucestershire County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative who sat on both councils.  The Rodborough county division is south-west of Stroud town in one of the steepest parts of the Cotswolds; it includes the settlements of Rodborough (which is a suburb of Stroud) to the north-east, Amberley to the south-east, Woodchester in a deep valley at the centre of the division, and King's Stanley to the west.  As the name suggests, Woodchester has Roman connections.  Politically the district ward was safe Conservative when it was last fought in 2008, the Tories polling 54% and the Greens finishing second with 18%.  The county division was much closer in 2009, the Tories beating the Lib Dems by 35-31 with the Greens polling 21% in third place.  As King's Stanley is part of a safe Tory ward, most of the Lib Dem and Green vote comes from Rodborough itself, which at district level is a C/LD/Grn marginal with the Tories and Lib Dems currently holding one seat each.  The Greens have acknowledged this by fighting the county ward but not the district ward; all three main parties have candidates in both contests.

CARNOUSTIE AND DISTRICT, Angus; caused by the resignation of an SNP councillor due to ill-health.  Carnoustie is well-known for its Open Championship golf course, but the town itself was developed around the linen industry and today is a commuting base for Dundee, which is just ten miles away on the railway.  The ward itself includes a large hinterland running inland as far as the hamlet of Monikie.  Angus is one of the strongest areas for the SNP, and at the 2007 local elections the SNP had 47% of first preferences (Lab 22%, C 16%, LD 14%) and after transfers won two of the three seats, Labour taking the other.  The four main parties and an Independent are contesting the by-election.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
RBH
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2184


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: February 04, 2011, 11:40:59 pm »
Ignore

Quote
Gloucestershire County - Rodborough: Lab 793, C 790, Lib Dem 660, Green 260. (June 2009 - Three seats C 1196, Lib Dem 1061, Green 716, Lab 415).
Lab gain from C. Swing 11.5% C to Lab.

Stroud District - Amberley and Woodchester: C 366, Lab 177, Lib Dem 124.
(May 2008 - C 452, Green 151, Lab 131, Lib Dem 98). C hold. Swing 5.1% C to Lab.

also, Brian Boyd (Ind) over Ed Oswald (SNP) by 20 votes. Labour third. Conservatives fourth. LDs fifth.

Looks like a banner evening for the Liberal Democrats!
Logged

RBH
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58547
India


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2011, 07:14:51 am »
Ignore

Quote
Gloucestershire County - Rodborough: Lab 793, C 790, Lib Dem 660, Green 260. (June 2009 - Three seats C 1196, Lib Dem 1061, Green 716, Lab 415).
Lab gain from C. Swing 11.5% C to Lab.
Woah.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 61421
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2011, 09:53:46 am »
Ignore

The division might have voted for David Drew last year, but he was hardly a normal Labour candidate, so yeah... excellent result.
Logged



Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2011, 05:33:49 am »
Ignore

That Carnoustie result in full:

Ed Oswald  SNP  1289
Brian Boyd  Ind  1252
Ron Thoms  Lab  258
Eddie Wilmott  C  217
Charles Goodall  LD  93

Transfers
Boyd    1252 +202 1454
Oswald  1289 +137 1426
Thoms    258 -258
Wilmott  217 -217
Goodall   93  -93
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 650
Romania


View Profile WWW
« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2011, 06:25:23 am »
Ignore

By-elections on 10 February 2011:

ROMNEY MARSH, Kent County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  Mostly consisting of reclaimed marshland, Romney Marsh is named after the town of New Romney, which is one of the original Cinque Ports but is now some distance from the sea.  In the nineteenth century the economy was dominated by the Romney Marsh sheep, specially bred for the wet conditions; today the main export from the area is electricity, with Dungeness being home to a nuclear power station.  New Romney and Lydd are the main centres of population.  This is a safe Conservative division; in 2009 the Tories polled 47% with UKIP second on 24%; in 2005 the Lib Dems ran second.

WORKSOP NORTH EAST, Bassetlaw, Notts; caused by a Conservative councillor being kicked off the council for not attending any meetings in six months.  In mitigation, he is seriously ill; however, the result is that the Tories have lost their majority on the council.  This ward is an urban segment of Worksop between the Carlton and Blyth roads.  Politically it's a ward the Tories can win in a good year: Labour won all three seats in 2002, the Tories gained all three seats between 2003 and 2006, Labour took seats back in 2007 and 2010 and the remaining Tory seat, held in 2008, is now up.  Last year Labour polled 64% in a straight fight with the Conservatives, but in the previous three years the largest winning margin was 113 votes.  With the upturn in Labour fortunes (they convincingly gained Worksop's most middle-class ward at a by-election a few months ago) a Labour gain seems nailed-on here.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 14 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines