UK local by-elections 2011

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour gained 2 seats from the Lib Dems at a by-election held last Thursday in East Ward (Langley Moor) of Brandon & Byshottles Parish Council

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Near your patch; were you involved at all?

[minionofmidas]

They don't seem to like outside candidates. The 3rd Tory candidate was also from outside the ward and he polled behind a Green.

The existence of the two strong indies plays a role here. People voting for 1 or 2 of them having 2 or 1 votes to potentially give to the major party candidate(s) they like.

[Democratic Hawk]

Near your patch;

Yep

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I'm afraid not. Easing my way back 'into things' gently however

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm afraid not. Easing my way back 'into things' gently however

Things better in general then?

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm afraid not. Easing my way back 'into things' gently however

Things better in general then?

Generally , yes

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm afraid not. Easing my way back 'into things' gently however

Things better in general then?

Generally , yes

Glad to hear it

[ObserverIE]

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 45.8 (-10.2)
Lab 31.3 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 16.7 (-0.1)
Green 6.2 (-3.4)

Broxbourne, Cheshunt Central

Con 53.1 (-14.8 )
Lab 34.4 (+14.0)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)
Ind 4.4 (+4.4)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)



(via BritainVotes)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 45.8 (-10.2)
Lab 31.3 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 16.7 (-0.1)
Green 6.2 (-3.4)

Broxbourne, Cheshunt Central

Con 53.1 (-14.8 )
Lab 34.4 (+14.0)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)
Ind 4.4 (+4.4)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)



(via BritainVotes)

Difficult to think of many less promising wards in London [than Thamesfield] to target, tbh.

The targeting clearly worked - that's an excellent result for Labour.

Looked up the 2008 GLA results for Thamesfield to get a bit more context: C 50.8 Lab 18.8 Grn 11.9 LD 11.6; Boris 55.6 Ken 28.1.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 45.8 (-10.2)
Lab 31.3 (+13.6)
Lib Dem 16.7 (-0.1)
Green 6.2 (-3.4)

Broxbourne, Cheshunt Central

Con 53.1 (-14.8 )
Lab 34.4 (+14.0)
UKIP 6.3 (+6.3)
Ind 4.4 (+4.4)
Lib Dem 1.7 (+1.7)



(via BritainVotes)

Difficult to think of many less promising wards in London [than Thamesfield] to target, tbh.

The targeting clearly worked - that's an excellent result for Labour.

Looked up the 2008 GLA results for Thamesfield to get a bit more context: C 50.8 Lab 18.8 Grn 11.9 LD 11.6; Boris 55.6 Ken 28.1.

Let's not forget that Labour were getting their lowest poll ratings in its modern history at that point. Now, they're at their highest point for about 10 years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

31% in that ward? Good Lord. I suppose it shows that Community Liberal style campaigning still works, even if not for its inventors.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Five local by-elections on 7th July. 

[Horbury candidates list edited 6th July]

CHURNET VALLEY, Staffordshire County Council; caused by the death of a Conservative councillor.  This is a long and thin county division east of Stoke-on-Trent, which is visited by thousands of people every year; it's the home of the theme park Alton Towers and the Churnet Valley preserved railway.  Alton is at the south-east end of the division, which runs north-west along the Churnet Valley to the village of Cheddleton on the Stoke-Leek road; the division also includes the northern part of the town of Cheadle.  The presence of part of Cheadle meant that Labour had a fairly strong vote in the division in 2005 (C 47.6 Lab 32.4 LD 19.9) but that melted away in the 2009 Tory landslide, with Labour finishing in third place behind the Lib Dems; shares were C 53.9 LD 26.5 Lab 19.6.  The late Tory councillor, Barrie Mycock, once featured in a b3ta.com list of Real People With Rude Names (http://www.b3ta.com/features/realnames/); perhaps it's just as well they didn't know that Barrie was actually his middle name and his actual first name was Ramon.  I'm not making this up.  Candidates for the by-election are three main parties plus UKIP; UKIP have had some local success in Leek and Newcastle-under-Lyme so it'll be interesting to see how they do here.  

HORBURY AND SOUTH OSSETT, Wakefield, West Yorkshire; caused by the resignation of a Conservaive councillor due to ill-health.  The large village of Horbury is located in the Calder Valley about three miles south-west of Wakefield, at the point where the wool-spinning towns end and the coal-mining towns begin.  Horbury's main industries were spinning and engineering; the sports company Slazenger (official supplier of tennis balls to Wimbledon) had a factory here, and Charles Roberts and Co built tens of thousands of railway wagons over the years at Horbury Junction; the railway company Bombardier built the Voyager trains here in 2000-2005.  When the ward was created in 2004 Labour won 2 seats and the Conservatives 1; the Tories gained the Labour seats in 2007 and 2008 but the ward always remained marginal, the largest Tory majority being 199 votes in 2007.  The Tories did well to hold on in 2010 by 102 votes but in May Labour gained the ward fairly comfortably with a majority of 385; shares of the vote were Lab 49.1 C 41.3 LD 9.5.  Candidates for the by-election are those three parties plus UKIP and an Indie two Indies; the Lib Dem candidate is regular contributor to the Vote-UK forum Mark Goodair.

LYTCHETT MATRAVERS, Purbeck, Dorset; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  The village of Lytchett Matravers lies about seven miles north-west of Poole with good views over Poole Harbour; the ward also includes the village of East Morden to the west.  Purbeck council is currently finely balanced; following May's election the Tories and Lib Dems were tied on 11 seats each, with the Lib Dems currently controlling the council as a minority.  If the Tories can win the by-election they will have half the seats on the council, and that's certainly possible in this tight marginal ward; the Lib Dems won by 118 votes in 2010 (LD 52.6 C 47.4) and 57 votes in 2006, while in 2008 the Lib Dems and Tories won one seat each in a double-header.  The by-election is a straight LD/C fight.

PECKHAM, Southwark, South London; caused by the death of the Mayor of Southwark, who was a Labour councillor.  An iconic district of South London thanks to the TV comedy Only Fools and Horses (and Desmond's), Peckham ward covers the area between Burgess Park to the north and Peckham Bus Station to the south.  The area has a reputation for gang violence and the ward includes the notorious North Peckham Estate, scene of the murder of 10-year-old local resident Damilola Taylor eleven years ago and now extensively redeveloped.  The 2001 census found that the ward was majority black, 36% African, 15% Caribbean and 4% "Black Other".  With that sort of inner-city background it's a very safe Labour ward, and the 2010 shares of the vote were Lab 62.3 LD 17.9 C 8.5 Grn 6.1 Ind 5.2.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties, the Greens and TUSC, the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition.

SAWLEY, Derbyshire County Council; caused by the death of long-serving and amazingly popular Independent councillor Bill Camm.  Camm had been a councillor since 1961, initially as a Labour member of Long Eaton Urban District Council, although he fell out with Labour many years ago over the depth of a local swimming pool, of all things.  He stood for Parliament in 1983 as the Independent Labour candidate for Erewash and easily saved his deposit, polling 7.5%.  Sawley is a western suburb of the town of Long Eaton, on the eastern side of the M1 motorway a few miles south-west of Nottingham; the county division consists of the original village of Sawley south of the railway line (Sawley ward) and the Long Eaton ward of Wilsthorpe, covering the New Sawley area north of the railway line.  Camm's popularity was such that it's difficult to tell what will happen now he's gone; the most recent county election in 2009 was Camm 54.4 C 24.1 Lab 10.8 LD 10.7; in the 2007 Erewash district council election he polled 48.8% in the three-member Sawley ward, with the Lib Dem candidates winning the other two seats.  Camm retired from his district council seat in May, and Sawley elected two Conservatives and one Labour councillor, with Wilsthorpe electing three Conservative councillors although Labour were just 13 votes away from the final seat.  Both the Tories and Labour have gone for high-profile candidates, with Labour standing last year's Erewash parliamentary candidate, and the Tories selecting the leader of Erewash council (who is a Wilsthorpe ward councillor).  There is also a Lib Dem candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Horbury and (especially) Ossett are in the Heavy Woollen District which extends over to Batley; they used to make shoddy (sort of like recycled wool) there.

Much hilarity can be gleaned from a glossary of textile manufacturing terms on tehwiki:

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[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Amusing image from the Horbury campaign.  Peter Box is the leader of Wakefield Council.

[MaxQue]

Amusing image from the Horbury campaign.  Peter Box is the leader of Wakefield Council.

The website to which that image is linked is less amusing.
A guy rambling about Conservative-Labour-Lib Dem secret alliance, an homophobic rant and an anti-immigrant rant.

That guy is a perennial candidate and he was condemned by court in 2002 for harassment against his MP.

http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local/mp_s_court_victory_on_man_with_wild_slurs_1_951083

That guy is a psycho, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that his name is Norman. What is it with Norman's from Yorkshire? (we all remember Norman 'chainsaw' Scarth, yes?)

Anyways, Peter Box has been the leader of Wakefield council since 1998. Which is the sort of length-of-service that you normally associate with Manchester and surrounds.

[ObserverIE]

Derbyshire, Sawley

Lab 41.7 (+30.9)
Con 36.9 (+12.8 )
Lib Dem 21.4 (+10.7)

Lab gain from Ind

Southwark, Peckham

Lab 70.1 (+7.8 )
Lib Dem 22.1 (+4.2)
Con 3.4 (-5.1)
TUSC 2.5 (+2.5)
Green 1.8 (-4.3)

Lab hold

Purbeck, Lytchett Martravers

Con 53.9 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 46.1 (-6.5)

Con gain from Lib Dem

Staffordshire, Churnet Valley

Con 52.0 (-1.9)
Lab 24.0 (+4.4)
UKIP 15.5 (+15.5)
Lib Dem 8.5 (-18.0)

Con hold

(from BritainVotes)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good result in Sawley for Labour. Suppose that the LibDems in Peckham will be pleased not to have Greenocked.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour majority in Horbury & South Osset is apparently over 700.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that UKIP can poll so much in Churnet Valley outside European Elections time.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Interesting that UKIP can poll so much in Churnet Valley outside European Elections time.

I did wonder about that.  UKIP have very active chapters in Leek (which borders this division) and Newcastle under Lyme nearby, who actually seem to know how to do local campaigning.

[ObserverIE]

Wakefield, Horbury and South Ossett

Lab 51.5 (+2.4)
Con 30.8 (-10.5)
UKIP 6.7 (+6.7)
Lib Dem 5.8 (-3.7)
Inds 5.2 (+5.2)

Lab gain from Con

(from Neil M at Vote 2007)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those would be changes from May.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

One by-election on 14th July:

OLD CATTON, Norfolk County Council; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  This division is a northern suburb of Norwich containing the parish of Old Catton together with part of Sprowston; it falls outside the Norwich city boundary which has failed to keep pace with the city's growth.  The deprivation indices suggest that Old Catton is a well-off area, while Sprowston is more mixed.  The 2009 result (C 48.8 UKIP 16.3 LD 13.5 Lab 10.8 Grn 10.6) suggests a very safe Tory area, but Labour did much better in 2005 (C 39.9 Lab 32.5 LD 22.7 Grn 4.8 ) on the general election turnout, and also were back in second place in May in the Broadland district council ward of Old Catton and Sprowston West, which has the same boundaries as this county division (C 51.4 Lab 25.9 LD 13.4 UKIP 9.3); Labour finished third behind the Lib Dems in the 2007 and 2004 district elections.  The area is part of the Norwich North constituency and the 2009 result was followed shortly after by the Conservative gain in the Norwich North by-election, although the political climate is now very different of course.  Candidates are C/Lab/LD/Grn/UKIP.

[ObserverIE]

Old Catton (changes from 2011 district council election in italics)

Con 40.6 (-8.2) (-10.8 )
Lib Dem 25.3 (+11.8 ) (+11.9)
Lab 23.0 (+12.2) (-2.9)
UKIP 6.5 (-9.8 ) (-2.8 )
Green 4.6 (-6.0) (+4.6)