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Author Topic: UK local by-elections 2011  (Read 60658 times)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
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« Reply #200 on: September 24, 2011, 06:39:54 am »
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BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England,
False. Tongue http://www.visionofbritain.org.uk/relationships.jsp?u_id=10153700&c_id=10001043

(But I would have mispronounced Bisster. I'd have guessed at "Beester".)

I knew I should have checked that 1971 census report I have lying around somewhere. Tongue
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #201 on: September 24, 2011, 12:37:35 pm »
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BISHOP'S CASTLE, Shropshire; caused by the resignation of a Lib Dem councillor.  One of Shropshire's tiny market towns, and until 1974 the smallest borough in England, the town is located twenty miles north-west of Ludlow, twenty miles south-west of Shrewsbury and just two miles from the Welsh border.  The ward itself includes eleven other tiny parishes in the same general area.  At the first unitary Shropshire Council election in 2009 the shares of the vote here were LD 47.7 C 40.5 Grn 11.8, the Lib Dem councillor having previously been a long-serving district councillor on the now-abolished South Shropshire district council.  Candidates for the by-election are the Lib Dems, Conservatives, Greens and Labour.

As well as Bishops Castle (known locally as 'The Castle' and, alas, generally pronounced in a way that's difficult to really describe with a standard alphabet. On the bright side, at least they don't speak the Clun dialect), which has a bit of a strange almost bohemian feel to it in spite of it being a quintessential remote Marches market town (this has been reflected in a strong Green Party vote), it includes countless tiny agricultural settlements on the western edge of the Long Mynd and the Onny Valley (Ratlinghope, Norbury, Asterton and so on) and the larger settlements in the Kemp Valley (the main one is Lydbury North) and a small part of what might be thought of (lol) as the greater Clun district, west of Bishops Castle. Most of these were closed villages, back in the day. And it shows.

I still have difficulty believing that Peter Phillips has resigned; he even ran for re-election (in 2009) when he was seriously ill. He was/is an old school Liberal, which is quite appropriate for what is (at least in places) a very old school Liberal area (though anywhere with as many farmers as this ward is certainly not generically poor territory for the Tories either). Phillips was a longserving councillor, despite being an abrasive prick. He will have had a personal vote, despite that. Perhaps because of it.

Candidates matter a great deal in places like this, of course. The Tory and the LibDem both live in the ward (the former in Lydbury North, the latter in Norbury. So far, so predictable). The Labour candidate (and it's been a long time since there's been one of those in this part of Shropshire. Get the impression that more than twenty votes would count as an achievement, but stranger things have happened) lives near Craven Arms, and the Green in Bucknell (on the far-off borders of distant Herefordshire). The Tory was a councillor (for the Bishops Castle & Onny Valley ward) on the old SSDC and lost to Phillips in 2009, the LibDem is a parish councillor and seems to be well-known locally, the Labour candidate is a well-known local-ish journalist (formerly of the Ludlow Advertiser), while it seems that the Green is another parish councillor, but presumably not for anywhere in the ward.

The main local issue to be aware of in Shropshire is the council. It is very right-wing*, rather incompetent, riven by nasty factional infighting, and is increasingly unpopular. Take that away and the chances of a Tory gain would look very likely indeed; with it... ah... this is completely unpredictable.

Will do the others later.

*Though 'Shropshire Tories are right wing' is a little bit 'sun rises in east, sets in west'. But a lot of people have been taken aback by recent antics.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2011, 12:39:43 pm by Sibboleth »Logged



Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #202 on: September 24, 2011, 12:46:08 pm »
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Mockery aside, it's a really nice area.
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« Reply #203 on: September 24, 2011, 04:03:59 pm »
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Most of these were closed villages, back in the day.

What's a closed village?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #204 on: September 24, 2011, 07:30:23 pm »
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Most of these were closed villages, back in the day.

What's a closed village?

Entirely dominated by a single landlord. The sort of place where, not so very long ago, candidates who were not Tories had to inform the electorate that the ballot was indeed secret.
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« Reply #205 on: September 25, 2011, 04:05:01 am »
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A separate but related meaning would be a place it was (back in the day) impossible to move to 'cept maybe as a woman marrying in - which of course is a subset of the first definition as it would be due to the landlord's policy not to take on any new tenants.
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« Reply #206 on: September 25, 2011, 04:50:13 am »
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Thanks. One of the benefits of the Land Acts is that all of this is a foreign concept to us.
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« Reply #207 on: September 25, 2011, 05:01:01 am »
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Thanks. One of the benefits of the Land Acts is that all of this is a foreign concept to us.
It is to modern England as well...
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« Reply #208 on: September 29, 2011, 05:32:22 pm »
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Gwynedd, Diffwys & Maenofferen

PC 57.9 (+16.8.) (+8.4)
LlG 42.1 (-7.2) (-8.4)

(italics represent change since 2010 by-election)

Gwynedd, Penrhyndeudraeth

PC 62.5 (+4.0)
LlG 26.6 (-14.9)
Ind 10.9 (+10.9)

Watford, Nascot

Lib Dem 48.5 (+2.9)
Con 38.8 (+2.5)
Lab 6.4 (-5.3)
Green 6.3 (-0.1)

(via BritainVotes)

Cherwell, Bicester North

Con 65.9 (+7.0)
Lab 19.3 (-5.8.)
Lib Dem 14.7 (-1.3)

Shropshire, Bishop's Castle

Lib Dem 53.4 (+5.7)
Con 36.3 (-4.2)
Lab 5.3 (+5.3)
Green 4.9 (-6.9)

(via Vote 2007)
« Last Edit: September 30, 2011, 05:15:06 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #209 on: September 30, 2011, 05:56:25 am »
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As much as 5% in Bishops Castle? I think that may count as a minor triumph.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #210 on: September 30, 2011, 07:09:17 am »
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Anyway, after this I'm almost - stress on almost - willing to predict that the Tories lose that big majority on Shropshire council at the next election. Also looks bad for Llais next year. Their candidate in Penrhyndeudraeth didn't look up to much, but their choice in Blaenau wasn't so bad. Plaid's longtime strategy for much of Gwynedd (running people from the local establishment, however defined) seems to be working again.
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« Reply #211 on: September 30, 2011, 02:13:23 pm »
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By-elections on 6th October:

LOWER STOKE, Coventry; caused by the death of a Labour councillor.  A place close to my heart as I went to university there, Coventry is defined by its industries: originally the city was known for its clocks and watches, but when that industry died around 1900 the watchmakers turned to making bicycles and then cars, creating one of the centres of the UK's motor industry.  This ward is directly east of the city centre, running either side of the Binley Road; at the south end of the ward is Stoke Aldermoor, now a small housing estate but previously the home of a Rootes and Peugeot factory.  Generally the ward is working-class but nowhere near being the most deprived area of the city.  It's a safe Labour ward with the shares of the vote in May being Lab 57.6 C 22.5 Grn 7.8 Socialist Alternative (who are vigorously led in Coventry by the former Militant MP Dave Nellist) 6.4 BNP 5.8.  Candidates in the by-election are the same five parties plus the Lib Dems, who are very weak in Coventry and stand in this ward only intermittently.

NORLAND, Kensington and Chelsea, North London; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor after he was charged with possessing child porn.  Bounded to the south by Holland Park Avenue, to the west by the West Cross Road and to the east by Ladbroke Grove, this ward is served by Holland Park station on the Central Line to the south, Latimer Road station on the Hammersmith Line to the north, and the newly-opened Shepherd's Bush station on the West London Line to the south-west.  Ladbroke Grove at the east end is part of newly-fashionable Notting Hill and the main route for the Notting Hill Carnival; Holland Park in the south has always been a desirable area to live, while the area around Latimer Road station is rather more run down by all accounts.  Politically - this is part of the Kensington constituency, you're not going to get anything other than a super-safe Conservative ward; the shares of the vote on general election day in 2010 were C 55.4 Lab 23.4 LD 21.2.  Even in the adverse circumstances of this by-election the Conservatives should have no trouble holding on.

VICARAGE, Watford, Hertfordshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor who is starting a four-year university degree.  This ward lies directly west of Watford town centre along the Vicarage Road, and includes Watford General Hospital and Vicarage Road Stadium, the home of Watford football club.  The census statistics don't show this ward ranking highly in the deprivation indices, but one striking feature of the ward is the large Asian population - 17% of the population gave their ethnic origin as Pakistani in the 2001 census, by far the largest figure in Watford.  This has helped Labour to win the ward against the yellow tide that has engulfed most of the rest of Watford, and while the Lib Dems did win one seat in a doubleheader in 2006 and held onto the seat in 2007, the Labour position has greatly improved since then; the shares of the vote in May were Lab 50.1 LD 27.5 C 9.2 Ind 8.1 Grn 5.1.  Candidates this time are the three main parties plus two independents; this time Labour and the Lib Dems are fielding white candidates, while one of the independents is an Asian who was a prominent member of the local Lib Dems but failed to get the nomination.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #212 on: October 01, 2011, 02:11:24 am »
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Anyway, after this I'm almost - stress on almost - willing to predict that the Tories lose that big majority on Shropshire council at the next election. Also looks bad for Llais next year. Their candidate in Penrhyndeudraeth didn't look up to much, but their choice in Blaenau wasn't so bad. Plaid's longtime strategy for much of Gwynedd (running people from the local establishment, however defined) seems to be working again.

What do Llais Gwynedd actually stand for?  Just a sort of "not Plaid" but still very much Welsh, or something a bit more than that?
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« Reply #213 on: October 01, 2011, 11:39:39 am »
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What do Llais Gwynedd actually stand for?  Just a sort of "not Plaid" but still very much Welsh, or something a bit more than that?

Basically it's a 'fyck you Gwynedd council' vote, combined (some of the time at least) with an intense parochialism. A protest party, in other words. But as to the people in it rather than their voters...

They they started as a group opposed to school closures on the Llŷn and in Meirionnydd (always an extremely emotive issue in Wales, especially this part of it) and this is the issue that they exploited with stunning results in 2008; most of Plaid's senior councillors were beaten by (including both their Party President and the Leader of the council) Llais candidates because of the issue. There are interesting parallels with People's Voice (and not just because of the similar name) as they attracted a very odd range of people, most of which had some grudge or other with Plaid, but who were (to put it mildly) not friendly with the established networks of Independents or with Labour. Two of their most high profile members are Owain Williams and Simon Glyn (who you may remember for this). The now-imprisoned Gwilym Euros Roberts was a good example as well; he had previously been a Plaid councillor (managing to lose his seat in 1999 of all years) but seems to have thought himself badly treated (though in his case that may have just been psychosis).
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« Reply #214 on: October 03, 2011, 04:25:11 pm »
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The Conservative candidate in Norland, Catherine Faulks is the sister in law of Sebastian Faulks
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« Reply #215 on: October 03, 2011, 04:34:46 pm »
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The Conservative candidate in Norland, Catherine Faulks is the sister in law of Sebastian Faulks

lol
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« Reply #216 on: October 04, 2011, 06:23:48 am »
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Well.. I just thought I hadn't posted here for a while, came here to see if Andrew had some useful background to the by-elections which I didn't know already and thought I may as well post that here rather than another place.  I can talk in more detail about Vicarage if you prefer
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« Reply #217 on: October 04, 2011, 06:48:36 am »
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I can talk in more detail about Vicarage if you prefer

I can't speak for the others o/c but I follow this thread closely (without posting, because I have nothing to contribute due to lack of knowledge) and I'm very interested in local political and economical geography of Britain.
The more information the better, so go ahead Smiley
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« Reply #218 on: October 04, 2011, 07:05:01 am »
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Well.. I just thought I hadn't posted here for a while, came here to see if Andrew had some useful background to the by-elections which I didn't know already and thought I may as well post that here rather than another place.  I can talk in more detail about Vicarage if you prefer

Oh, I wasn't having a go at you; I just found that particular fact to be... well... lol. What else do you say, you know?
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« Reply #219 on: October 04, 2011, 07:33:39 am »
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Yeah I knew what you meant
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Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« Reply #220 on: October 05, 2011, 04:27:20 am »
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The Conservative candidate in Norland, Catherine Faulks is the sister in law of Sebastian Faulks

The Labour candidate was a contestant in the 2009 UK series of Big Brother.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1191485/Evicted-Beinazir-leaves--Big-Brother-housemate.html

Let the Z-list catfight begin!
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #221 on: October 06, 2011, 06:32:37 pm »
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Watford, Vicarage

Lab 52.9 (+2.8.)
Lib Dem 23.2 (-4.3)
Ind (Azam) 11.0 (+11.0)
Ind (Baker) 7.4 (-0.7)
Con 5.5 (-3.7)

Coventry, Lower Stoke

Lab 54.1 (-3.5)
Con 22.3 (-0.2)
Soc 10.1 (+3.7)
BNP 5.9 (+0.1)
Green 4.5 (-3.3)
Lib Dem 3.1 (+3.1)

Kensington and Chelsea, Norland

Con 43.8 (-11.6)
Lab 28.4 (+5.0)
Lib Dem 23.2 (+2.0)
UKIP 4.5 (+4.5)

(via BritainVotes)
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⚑ Comrade Corbyn for PM ⚑
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« Reply #222 on: October 06, 2011, 07:27:58 pm »
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I usually agree with your colouring (so sick of coming across bizarrely coloured parties when trawling through the councils' results), but I disagree with your BNP and Soc colours. Tongue

Anyway, pretty good result for the latter. Also for Labour to improve upon last year's result in Watford is an achievement.
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« Reply #223 on: October 07, 2011, 04:59:34 am »
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I usually agree with your colouring (so sick of coming across bizarrely coloured parties when trawling through the councils' results), but I disagree with your BNP and Soc colours. Tongue

If there was a deeper pink available I'd use it for the SP. Brown seems somehow appropriate for the BNP.
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« Reply #224 on: October 07, 2011, 03:12:25 pm »
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By-elections on 13th October:

BAMBER BRIDGE EAST, South Ribble, Lancashire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor due to ill health.  Brig, as it's known locally, is a large village located about five miles south-east of Preston on the A6, the old road to London.  This, the easterly of the village's three wards, is based on the area known as Walton Summit in a triangle between three motorways: the M61 to Manchester, the M65 to Blackburn and the M6, which here is the southern end of the original Preston Bypass, opened in 1958 as the UK's first ever motorway.  The ward was quite a close three-way marginal in 2007: Labour won both seats but the second Labour candidate was only 35 votes ahead of the Conservatives who in turn were only 30 votes ahead of the bizarrely-named local political movement 'Idle Toad', led by a former Labour councillor who is still the local county councillor (although this ward is not his powerbase).  The Idle Toad fell apart shortly after the 2007 election, with one former councillor suing the party after its newsletter described him as a "defecator" (the party's defence was that this was a misprint for "defector"!), and they haven't stood here since.  The 2011 election resulted in two Labour holds with a greatly increased majority; shares of the vote were Lab 57.4 C 42.6.  The by-election is another straight Labour/Tory fight.

MEOPHAM NORTH, Gravesham, Kent; caused by the resignation of a Conservative councillor.  The Kentish village of Meopham (pronounced MEPPam) is located in the North Downs five miles south of Gravesend; this ward is the northern half of the Meopham parish and includes the whole of Meopham itself plus the hamlets of Meopham Green and Meopham Station; as the name suggests Meopham Station has a railway station on the London-Chatham main line, with trains taking 48 minutes to London Victoria; this makes Meopham a very well-off area popular with London commuters.  Under first-past-the-post Gravesham council has had a few wrong-winner results in recent years caused by the Tory votes piling up in super-safe wards, and this is one of those; the result in May was C 71.1 Lab 28.9, and the local county council division (Gravesham Rural) had an even larger majority in 2009.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus UKIP.

ST HELEN'S, Barnsley, South Yorkshire; caused by the resignation of a Labour councillor.  Located at the north end of the town on the road to Wakefield, this ward is based on the post-war New Lodge, Athersley North and Athersley South council estates.  It's a very depressed part of a very depressed town, and Labour are rarely seriously challenged here; the closest races in the last few years were in 2006 (Lab majority 198 over Independent) and 2008 (Lab majority 330 over BNP).  The BNP have finished second here at every election since 2008 (including a 2009 by-election) but apart from that first result have never come anywhere near winning.  May's result was Lab 79.3 BNP 12.1 C 8.6; the by-election also sees an English Democrat and an independent candidate.

SLEAFORD WEST AND LEASINGHAM, Lincolnshire County Council; caused by the death of the Deputy Leader of the Council, who was a Conservative councillor.  A market town 19 miles south of Lincoln, Sleaford became a regional centre at the junction of the Nottingham/Skegness and Peterborough/Lincoln roads and railway lines and was once the county town of the Parts of Kesteven, the south-western of Lincolnshire's three Parts.  Industries in the town were mainly agricultural, including seeds and the Bass Maltings.  This division includes the town centre, the south-west of the town and the villages of North and South Rauceby to the west and Leasingham to the north.  These are generally well-off areas and this is safe Conservative ward, with the 2009 result being C 57.0 Ind 18.3 LD 13.9 Lab 10.8.  Candidates for the by-election are the three main parties plus the Lincolnshire Independents, a group of independent county councillors. 

Brown seems somehow appropriate for the BNP.

Just please don't use teal like the BBC do.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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