UK local by-elections 2011

[YL]

Came 4th

SNP 1049 (45.5;+28.6)
Lab 463 (20.1; +6.1)
Ind 245 / 202 / 75 (22.7; -29.2)
LD 236 (10.2; -5.3)
Con 33 (1.4; -0.4)

These aren't the first preference results.  They're what's on the Highland Council website
http://www.highland.gov.uk/yourcouncil/elections/highlandcouncilelections/byelection-ward3/ward3-results.htm
but it also says that the SNP candidate reached the quota of 1047 at the "end of stage 3".  So the 1049 can't be their first preference vote, and the percentages are probably wrong.

Three candidates were eliminated: the Tory and the two independents with the lowest vote listed above.

[YL]

Conwy, Uwchaled

Ind 94.1
Con 5.9

(from Britain Votes)

LOL.  Why no Plaid candidate?

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Roughly what I'd have expected there.

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This seems to be a very strange ward.

[YL]

Derbyshire Dales DC, Stanton

Con 246
Lab 173
LD 84

(via the Council's Twitter feed)

At a glance that looks like a pretty good Labour performance.

[YL]

By-elections next week.  Starting with an unusual Tuesday by-election on 26th July:

SNATCHWOOD, Torfaen, Gwent; caused by the death of a People's Voice councillor.  This ward is a northern suburb of Pontypridd, on the west bank of the river just south of Abersychan.  In 2008 it was won by People's Voice, a group of anti-Labour independents associated with former Independent AM Trish Law; People's Voice defeated Labour here by 372 votes to 282 in a straight fight.  The defeated Labour candidate is standing in the by-election along with candidates from Plaid, the Tories and three Independents.

Deliberate mistake time again?

[YL]

Anyway, after this I'm almost - stress on almost - willing to predict that the Tories lose that big majority on Shropshire council at the next election. Also looks bad for Llais next year. Their candidate in Penrhyndeudraeth didn't look up to much, but their choice in Blaenau wasn't so bad. Plaid's longtime strategy for much of Gwynedd (running people from the local establishment, however defined) seems to be working again.

What do Llais Gwynedd actually stand for?  Just a sort of "not Plaid" but still very much Welsh, or something a bit more than that?

[YL]

Full count details for Inverness South from Highland Council's website.

I always find transfers interesting, particularly weird ones like the 16 from the "Scottish Christian Party" to the Lib Dems.  Generally the Lib Dem seems to have done very well from the transfers, particularly from the elimination of the Tory (not surprising) but also from the elimination of the Labour candidate.

As for Oban North and Lorn, Argyll and Bute, first preferences were (from the Council website)
SNP 1081 (44.1%)
Con 505 (20.6%)
Ind (Neal) 438 (17.9%)
Lib Dem 260 (10.6%)
Ind (Doyle) 165 (6.7%)
Details of later counts don't seem to be on the site but unsurprisingly the SNP won.
 
Edit: now found the full result for Oban North & Lorn, via VoteUK.  Lib Dem transfers were fairly even between SNP/Con/Ind; Ind transfers favoured the other Ind then the SNP.

[YL]

Decent result for us in Leicestershire, I suppose.

... but still a disturbingly high BNP vote, even if it's a bit lower than in 2009.  Is it a "white flight" sort of area?

[YL]

That'll surely be the end of Respect once she's gone?

I've been assuming that it will be, at least as an election-winning force in Brum, but we'll see.  Don't they also still have a presence in Tower Hamlets?

Round here (Sheffield) they disappeared after the Galloway/SWP split; they'd had some decent results before that but never really looked like winning a ward.  Their Burngreave candidate has continued to have some decent results by the standards of non-Labour candidates in Burngreave, but under different labels.

[YL]

So do we think that's basically the end of Respect as a force in Brum, then?  Their leader has gone and that was quite a heavy defeat in what was their stronghold.  Oh, and it's always good to see the Tories come fifth.

It generally looks a good set of results for Labour.

[YL]

SNP hold Hillhead, LDem hold Poulton, Labour gain Ruabon, Tories gain Sighthill, Tories gain Wight West. Most of these - weirdly - were extremely close, it seems.

I'm sure that occasionally happens in afleitch's better dreams...

[YL]

Wycombe, Hazlemere South

Lib Dem 37.7 (+19.0)
UKIP 33.4 (+33.4) (candidate stood as Ind in May, getting 26.6)
Con 20.9 (-33.8 )
Lab 8.1 (+8.1)

The UKIP candidate's personal vote might explain their high vote, but what's the explanation for the Tory collapse?

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Good win for Mebyon Kernow there.

[YL]

Interesting to see the Tories lose Frisby on the Wreake! Is Hutchinson a rightist?

Google finds this:

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So it looks like he stood because he didn't like the Tories' choice of candidate, and it appears the people of the wonderfully named Frisby on the Wreake agreed with him.