UK local by-elections 2011

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And Labour representation returns to Cornwall after a gap of about a year and a half as Camborne North is gained:

Labour 33.1, Con 28.1, LDem 21.6, Lib 8.4, MK 4.4, Green 4.3

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Marl is the less working class half of Junction (Pensarn ward, which includes the train station, is very working class though) probably because it merges into seamlessly into Deganwy, though it is more working class than not and (obviously) more working class than average for the Aberconwy constituency. But, yeah, the result from last time is very misleading (not that that's unusual even in 'urban' wards in North West Wales).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably we're dealing with the kind of "working class" area you expect amid wealthy tourists and retirees... service sector that is, plus perhaps some more working class retirees as well (who wanted to move to the Welsh Coast but could only afford Junction)?

There's a bit of the latter, yeah, and especially in this end of the town.* But Junction was originally a railway town (shocking I know) and still has that feel to it (though not to the extent of Holyhead or even parts of Bangor). As for employment structure, dead on for this ward but there's still some manufacturing employment to speak of in the east of the town (Pensarn ward). Construction was a sizeable employer before the slump; nearly as much as hotels, catering and the like.

*Though the area on the North coast that's really like that is Abergele.

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No more than any other small town with a proper railway station (rather than just a platform).

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They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.

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They didn't; that was a Residents Association candidate.

Ah.

You didn't seriously think Respect could poll 7% in Solihull, did you?

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The division might have voted for David Drew last year, but he was hardly a normal Labour candidate, so yeah... excellent result.

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Might have held a majority on the Chairman's casting vote.

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Worksop North East: Labour 74.0, Con 19.6, Ind 4.6, LDem 1.7
Romney Marsh: Con 54.1, Labour 18.2, LDem 11.7, UKIP 10.2, Ind 5.8

And, surprisingly, Lydd on Shepway DC (see above for the general area) which everyone assumed wouldn't be held due to proximity to the main elections in May: Con 49.3, Labour 20.6, LDem 15.3, Ind 14.8

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Quarry & Coton Hill is certainly bizarrely shaped, but it's better than pairing Quarry with Castlefields (as was done for the old district council from 2002 onwards) and has been done before at various different levels.

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Results...

Kenton: Con 44.1, Labour 37.7, Ind 7.7, LDem 7.4, Green 3.1
Bourn: Con 56.3, LDem 22.2, Labour 21.5
Quarry & Coton Hill: LDem 41.8, Con 31.6, Labour 23.1, Ind 3.5

Comment on the last of those; that's an unusually high Labour vote in that part of the town, to say the least. Boundary issues mean direct comparison isn't possible, but I'd guess probably around level with the 2005 County Council elections, not sure about 'normal' local election rounds. Bad result for the Tories; the unpopularity of the council might be a factor. Wonder whether this defeat will kick off another round of factional infighting?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hard to believe that Riverside was reliable Tory ward until about twenty years ago and would have been one of the reasons for the improbable Commons tenure of Stefan Terlezki. Though large parts of the ward have changed a lot and certain other things have changed elsewhere. It's quite a strange ward, as you can tell from glancing at it's nomis profile. Basically it's a ward of two halves; Riverside itself is a fairly run-down inner city district these days and is one of the least white places in Wales (which isn't saying a lot, I suppose) with sizeable Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Indian communities (so not actually the minorities associated with Cardiff at all). Employment is dominated by low-paid jobs in the service sector and unemployment is high. The other half of the ward, Pontcanna, is crachach central. It is one of the poshest parts of Cardiff (even more so than neighbouring Llandaff) and is home to seemingly the entire Welsh media. The percentage of people who claim to be Welsh speakers is much higher than the Cardiff average in Pontcanna, but you could probably work that out for yourselves. Riverside and Pontcanna have two things in common; both have an unusually low percentage of people in born in Wales and both are good territory for Plaid in local elections. The latter might come as a surprise, but the Welsh Labour Party has always struggled to appeal to ethnic minority voters (perhaps made worse in Cardiff by the continuing strength of a pro-business right-wing faction within the Party; this is the city of Julian Hodge, after all) and Plaid have someone managed to fill part of the gap, at least at local level. No idea what'll happen in the by-election.

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Oh, yeah. I forgot to mention Russell Goodway. You can't write about the right-wing of Cardiff Labour and not mention that remarkable man. Who I note is now on twitter.

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Has Cardiff Labour finally worked out how to appeal to minority voters?

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Brunswick Park: Lab 65.1, LDem 20.7, Green 7.6, Con 4.2, TUSC 2.3

Full results for Rosegrove with Lowerhouse don't seem to be available, but it was a comfortable Labour gain with the LibDems apparently slipping into third behind the BNP.

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It sort of depends what you compare it to

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How did the LibDem do?

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Good result for Labour in a ward utterly dominated by suburban prosperity, good result for the Tories (and Johnson) as well; evidence that that their (his) prosperous suburban base is holding up well.

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Arllechwedd, Gwynedd
Plaid 56.0 (+8.8 )
Lib Dem 20.4 (-32.4)
Lab 15.8
Cons 7.7

Other results aren't up yet on the authories' websites.

Not looking good for LibDem hopes to keep what they have in Gwynedd next year. Though maybe they'll do better with candidates with less... er... offensive surnames.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I can ask why, what is the problem with the Douglas-Pennants? I understand than they are a very old nobility family, but, what else?

Because (and this is no reflection on the man in question; he may be very nice for all I know) they were a bunch of absolute and utter bastards. They developed,* owned and ran Penrhyn Quarry until the 1950s and in terms of how they treated their workforce they were the worst of the families that owned slate quarries in North Wales. Which is saying a lot, actually. Of particular relevance would be the lockouts in Bethesda at the turn of the last century, one of the most important events in the history of North Wales and one of the most important in the modern history of Wales generally. In which they were the bad guys.

So the name is kind of toxic. Which probably isn't especially helpful if you're trying to get elected, no matter how hard you try.

_{(translation: 'there is no traitor in this house'. It's a card put up in the windows of striking quarrymen in Bethesda)}

*Via outright theft and the proceeds of slavery. I don't make this up.

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Haha, Byker.

Anyway... didn't the LibDems used to be fairly strong in south Crewe? Ah, yes. They did. My memory was right. So... wow.

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Serious Business in Caernarfon.

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Both the notion that the council can coopt members in certain circumstances, and the notion that party politics "should not" play a role in that, are so alien to my understanding of representative democracy as to make it impossible to have an opinion. Though neither is as outlandish as the notion that councillors should not discuss who to vote for before the meeting - wtfh?

Town Councils can be Serious Business, you know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both the notion that the council can coopt members in certain circumstances, and the notion that party politics "should not" play a role in that, are so alien to my understanding of representative democracy as to make it impossible to have an opinion. Though neither is as outlandish as the notion that councillors should not discuss who to vote for before the meeting - wtfh?

Town Councils can be Serious Business, you know.

That's why[/i] I don't get it.

I think the general idea is that if you aren't on the Town Council (any Town Council) then you aren't supposed to get it.

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Difficult to think of many less promising wards in London to target, tbh.