Can Obama win Florida in 2012?

[°Leprechaun]

271-267 for Obama if he wins Florida and the states which have gone Dem for the last 5 elections. Obviously, it will be a hard fought state. Bush carried it 52-47 in 2004. Obama won it 50-48.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Odds are definitely against him, especiallly if Jeb Bush makes an (unlikely) run for Senate. Overall if the Republican nominee is good than he will lost Florida.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

[Miles]

This year worried me. The Democrats have a superminority in both Houses and Democrats lost 4 House seats there this year. They could, however, have taken the statehouse, but Alex Sink was a terrible candidate.

I'd say the odds are with the Republican.

[ShamDam]

If the odds are looking like they're against Obama in the final months of the campaign (i.e., losing NH Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin and Michigan are toss-ups), then Florida could be Obama's Pennsylvania. Although, I do think that in that circumstance Obama would have much more of a fighting chance at winning the state than McCain did in Pennsylvania, but he'd still probably lose it.

In short, in any situation where Obama needs to win Florida, he'll probably lose it.

[CatoMinor]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

[Poundingtherock]

He is leading every republican according to Elaine Marshall's pimp

Whether he is leading in reality is another story.

[pbrower2a]

Odds are definitely against him, especiallly if Jeb Bush makes an (unlikely) run for Senate. Overall if the Republican nominee is good than he will lost Florida.

The Republicans need a miracle to win overall. The most recent PPP polls show Obama winning against every major Republican candidate in Ohio and Florida and against everyone but Huckabee in North Carolina. No polls say anything about the President in either Colorado or Nevada, but in view of Republican losses in those two states of the Senate seat in a bad year for Democrats, those two states seem to be drifting away from the Republicans.

This is a time of mass discontent with politicians of all kinds, and the GOP has far more convincing to do than does President Obama. An economic miracle that saves the GOP hold of the House and allows the GOP to take over the Senate solidifies the chance of re-election of President Obama.


Sure, if it all boils down to Florida, then President Obama loses because he would have lost a bunch of states that should be easy wins. If he wins Florida he is also winning Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire any way -- and he is already on the way to winning about 360 electoral votes as in 2008 because he is also winning Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and one of Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri.

[albaleman]

Absolutely, in fact I think he will. If he's winning Florida that means he will also likely carry other swing states such as Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virgina.

If the presidential election comes down to one state, my guess is that that state will be Colorado.

[Psychic Octopus]

Of course he can. If he won it in 2008, he definitely has a shot at winning it in 2012.

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

Because, you know, nothing can happen in the next 22 months -- and won't.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I could see it coming down to a few thousand votes, so yes I think there is the possibility of him winning the state.

[°Leprechaun]

A lot depends on how seriously he takes Florida. All things being equal he won't need to win Florida, if he wins certain western states, as people have already noted. However, he may spend a disproportional amount of money there, it is difficult to say. He will probably raise a lot of money, so he can spend a lot in certain places early in the campaign and focus more on more critical states like Colorado later in the campaign and abandon those states where he is behind. I have no idea what kind of strategy he is going to use except obviously focusing on swing states. But, whether he takes Florida as being the most important state or not, I have no idea. It will be interesting to see if he can win there should the election be close. I have no idea at this point whether it will be close.

[DrScholl]

He can win it. Yes, it's a long time to the election, but the fact that he is leading at a point when things aren't very good for him is very encouraging. Throwing out Dewey vs. Truman references and attacking PPP (who was the most accurate pollster in 2010) doesn't change the fact that he's doing much better than he should be right now.

[°Leprechaun]

Florida could be on of a small number of tossups, too close to call.
Here's is a map showing 266-206-66:

[Poundingtherock]

In what world was Elaine Marshall's pimp the most accurate pollster in 2010?

Even Nate Silver said that Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA beat Marshall's pimp like a drum in 2010.

[California8429]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

Incumbents always have the upper hand, if he was lossing in the polls now before the election has even begun then it would be a landslide for republicans.

Tampa is the convention site, Jeb bush may run, the state is gaining more old people and cubans who can turn into a huge anti-obama force since he has begun opening relations with cuba and has taken a rather weak foreign policy stance on...everything.

Florida is a toss-up at best for him

[°Leprechaun]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

Incumbents always have the upper hand, if he was lossing in the polls now before the election has even begun then it would be a landslide for republicans.

Tampa is the convention site, Jeb bush may run, the state is gaining more old people and cubans who can turn into a huge anti-obama force since he has begun opening relations with cuba and has taken a rather weak foreign policy stance on...everything.

Florida is a toss-up at best for him

Florida is a must win for Republicans. It is not a must win for Democrats. Whether or not Obama will target it and to what extent depends on how much money he has compared to his opponent. If he has more he can afford to spend a lot in Florida, thereby forcing the Repblican candidate to spend money there, which obviously will make it harder for the Republican to compete in other swing states.

[pbrower2a]

Florida could be on of a small number of tossups, too close to call.
Here's is a map showing 266-206-66:

Except that I would also put North Carolina in gray, that is my map. But President Obama isn't going to win North Carolina without also winning Virginia; in the absence of current polls, I could say that he has no chance of winning Indiana without also winning Ohio. So  your map is practical. I concur with both Colorado and Nevada being more secure for the President than is Iowa.

That is a very good map.

So far, everyone bit Huckabee loses North Carolina to President Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

Incumbents always have the upper hand, if he was losing in the polls now before the election has even begun then it would be a landslide for republicans.

Indeed they have to be in deep trouble before the campaign season begins -- corruption, incompetence, irrelevance, reputation as an extremist, personal scandals... Such shows in approval ratings in the 30s and low 40s for Senators and Governors. Incumbents almost often gain something during the campaign, but for a real turkey the gain is almost never enough.   

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. Minneapolis was the convention site for the Republicans in 2008; how did that work out?

2. Sanctions on Cuba may be becoming more of a hardship for Cuban-Americans than something to be seen as a great principle worthy of some sacrifice. Fidel Castro could vanish from the scene at any time; when such is so, it would be best that sanctions are gone. Cuba isn't exactly North Korea.

3. Jeb running? If so, then the Favorite Son effect removes Florida from contention for the Democrats, who then will have to look elsewhere. But Jeb Bush has to run for President for such to be so. The Obama campaign then would probably try to work on other states -- like Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and -- who knows -- Texas.     

4. Weak foreign policy? Relations have gotten better with about every country except Iran and North Korea, and if relations with both countries remain execrable one can't fault the President.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The GOP seems to be in a position now of having lost most of what it dare lose with too many toss-ups.

[feeblepizza]

No. ObamaCare killed his chances with seniors.

[California8429]

No. ObamaCare killed his chances with seniors.

^

And how has his foreign policy been strong? He has shown no international leadership. He's sending others who actually can do things to do his biddings like Richardson to North Korea. He failed to statisfy China that he'll be able to repay them. He didn't support the protecting the Missile Defense shield in eastern europe how in the freaking world does that improve relations with countries at the border of Russia who are taunted by Russia?

And come on, did you honestly think republicans in 08 moving their convention anywhere would have helped? The economy crashed, the war was unpopular and McCain's plan to turn that around was drowned out with the public being set on the idea that republicans caused it, it was an impossible win. The only state it could have saved was North Carolina with margins that close, and how would that have turned out with the republicans holding the convention in the south?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think it's a toss-up at this point, with slight lean toward him being able to win the Sunshine State, but anything can happen in 22 months.  It also depends on how Governor Rick Scott does in the next 22 months.

[milhouse24]

I think Obama will lose Florida

[Ben Romney]

NO WAY
NO OBUMBLER

[AndrewTX]

Can he win Florida in 2012? Sure, I dont see why not.

 Will he win Florida? No. It doesnt matter if he is leading every republican, a lot can happen in 2 years. Not saying he wont win re-election, but I doubt he will do it carrying Florida.