Can Obama win Florida in 2012?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Proposition: Florida has a pro-incumbent bias for presidential elections.

What do people think?

I wouldn't buy it.

I wouldn't either.   Bush43 wasn't going to lose it in his re-election bid against Kerry...no way no how.  And Clinton wasn't going to lose it to Dole, no way, no how......and in 1984 every state turned into a Reagan red state, sans MN and of course the DC.  

Shall we go further back?

He'll win it just because he will.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

2000: Gore wins Florida narrowly

lol

Seriously I didn't think b33 was on that bandwagon.  lulz

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I wouldn't either.   Bush43 wasn't going to lose it in his re-election bid against Kerry...no way no how.  And Clinton wasn't going to lose it to Dole, no way, no how......

I'm looking at the margin of victory, not just who won.

Ok I see where your theory is possible looking at the maps from those other elections.....do you think he can win by a wide margin with a not-so hot economy?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

In that case, Florida went to Bush in 2000, so theres a closer example.

Ok, so let's put it this way. We have two options:

1. Florida has a pro-incumbent bias.
2. Florida is a Republican state that unexpectedly swung to vote close to the national median in 1996 and 2000.

2000 still needs an explanation.

The 2000 election had a lot of bizarre quirks, no?