Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida 
Incumbents always have the upper hand, if he was losing in the polls now before the election has even begun then it would be a landslide for republicans.Indeed they have to be in deep trouble before the campaign season begins -- corruption, incompetence, irrelevance, reputation as an extremist, personal scandals... Such shows in approval ratings in the 30s and low 40s for Senators and Governors. Incumbents almost often gain something during the campaign, but for a real turkey the gain is almost never enough.
1. Minneapolis was the convention site for the Republicans in 2008; how did that work out?
2. Sanctions on Cuba may be becoming more of a hardship for Cuban-Americans than something to be seen as a great principle worthy of some sacrifice. Fidel Castro could vanish from the scene at any time; when such is so, it would be best that sanctions are gone. Cuba isn't exactly North Korea.
3. Jeb running? If so, then the Favorite Son effect removes Florida from contention for the Democrats, who then will have to look elsewhere. But Jeb Bush has to run for President for such to be so. The Obama campaign then would probably try to work on other states -- like Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and -- who knows -- Texas.
4. Weak foreign policy? Relations have gotten better with about every country except Iran and North Korea, and if relations with both countries remain execrable one can't fault the President.
The GOP seems to be in a position now of having lost most of what it dare lose with too many toss-ups.
