Can Obama win Florida in 2012?

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Odds are definitely against him, especiallly if Jeb Bush makes an (unlikely) run for Senate. Overall if the Republican nominee is good than he will lost Florida.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Proposition: Florida has a pro-incumbent bias for presidential elections.

What do people think?

It went for Reagan in 1980, sooooo not exactly.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Proposition: Florida has a pro-incumbent bias for presidential elections.

What do people think?

It went for Reagan in 1980, sooooo not exactly.

Yes, but you have to go back 30 years and when the state had half its current population to find a swing against an incumbent party like that.

Well to be fair there were 3 elections since then that there were incumbents.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

Proposition: Florida has a pro-incumbent bias for presidential elections.

What do people think?

It went for Reagan in 1980, sooooo not exactly.

Yes, but you have to go back 30 years and when the state had half its current population to find a swing against an incumbent party like that.

Well to be fair there were 3 elections since then that there were incumbents.

Plus 2 where the incumbent VP ran for President, which is close.

In that case, Florida went to Bush in 2000, so theres a closer example.

[Mr. Taft Republican]

In that case, Florida went to Bush in 2000, so theres a closer example.

Ok, so let's put it this way. We have two options:

1. Florida has a pro-incumbent bias.
2. Florida is a Republican state that unexpectedly swung to vote close to the national median in 1996 and 2000.

2000 still needs an explanation.

He got by with a little help from his friends.

Let's just get the partisan hacks out of the administration of elections -- OK?

End the FEC, that seriously screws third parties, like Perot in '96.

As for 2000, sh*t happens.