Can Obama win Florida in 2012?

[°Leprechaun]

271-267 for Obama if he wins Florida and the states which have gone Dem for the last 5 elections. Obviously, it will be a hard fought state. Bush carried it 52-47 in 2004. Obama won it 50-48.

[°Leprechaun]

A lot depends on how seriously he takes Florida. All things being equal he won't need to win Florida, if he wins certain western states, as people have already noted. However, he may spend a disproportional amount of money there, it is difficult to say. He will probably raise a lot of money, so he can spend a lot in certain places early in the campaign and focus more on more critical states like Colorado later in the campaign and abandon those states where he is behind. I have no idea what kind of strategy he is going to use except obviously focusing on swing states. But, whether he takes Florida as being the most important state or not, I have no idea. It will be interesting to see if he can win there should the election be close. I have no idea at this point whether it will be close.

[°Leprechaun]

Florida could be on of a small number of tossups, too close to call.
Here's is a map showing 266-206-66:

[°Leprechaun]

Obama is leading EVERY republican candidate at this moment. he WILL win florida

Incumbents always have the upper hand, if he was lossing in the polls now before the election has even begun then it would be a landslide for republicans.

Tampa is the convention site, Jeb bush may run, the state is gaining more old people and cubans who can turn into a huge anti-obama force since he has begun opening relations with cuba and has taken a rather weak foreign policy stance on...everything.

Florida is a toss-up at best for him

Florida is a must win for Republicans. It is not a must win for Democrats. Whether or not Obama will target it and to what extent depends on how much money he has compared to his opponent. If he has more he can afford to spend a lot in Florida, thereby forcing the Repblican candidate to spend money there, which obviously will make it harder for the Republican to compete in other swing states.

[°Leprechaun]

Not a likely scenario, but it shows how important the smallest of states are.
270-268 for Obama.