Congressional Anomalies?

[HAnnA MArin County]

The following is a list I compiled of Democratic incumbents whose margins of victory INCREASED from 2008-2010, as well as Republican incumbents whose margins DECREASED. Why/How did these incumbents avoid the GOP wave?

P.S.  Does anyone else find it ironic that Nancy Pelosi's margin increased while she became Minority Leader, and John Boehner's margin decreased while he became Speaker?

Democratic Incumbents Whose Margins INCREASED
CA-32: Judy Chu
2009: Chu (D) 61.85% - Betty Chu (R) 32.96% = D + 28.89
2010: Chu (D) 71.04% - Edward Schmerling (R) 28.96% = D + 42.08
CHANGE: D + 13.19

CA-10: John Garamendi
2009: Garamendi (D) 52.85% - David Harmer (R) 42.83% = D + 10.02
2010: Garamendi (D) 58.84% - Gary Clift (R) 37.86% = D + 20.98
CHANGE: D + 10.96

NY-12: Nydia M. Velazquez 
2008: Velazquez (D) 89.95% - Allan E. Romaguera (R) 10.05% = D + 79.90
2010: Velazquez (D) 93.87% - Alice Gaffney (R) 6.13% = D + 87.74
CHANGE: D + 7.84

ME-01: Chellie Pingree
2008: Pingree (D) 54.90% - Charlie Summers (R) 45.10% = D + 9.80
2010: Pingree (D) 56.84% - Dean Scontras (R) 43.16% = D + 13.68
CHANGE: D + 3.88

CA-08: Nancy Pelosi
2008: Pelosi (D) 71.87% - Dana Walsh (R) 9.68% = D + 62.19
2010: Pelosi (D) 80.11% - John Dennis (R) 15.12% = D + 64.99
CHANGE: D + 2.80

CT-04: Jim Himes
2008: Himes (D) 51.32% - Chris Shays (R) 47.56% = D + 3.76
2010: Himes (D) 53.06% - Dan Debicella (R) 46.94% = D + 6.12
CHANGE: D + 2.36

GA-13: David Scott
2008: Scott (D) 69.04% - Deborah Honeycutt (R) 30.96% = D + 38.08
2010: Scott (D) 69.43% - Mike Crane (R) 30.57% = D + 38.86
CHANGE: D + 0.78

PA-02: Chaka Fattah
2008: Fattah (D) 88.93% - Adam A. Lang (R) 11.07% = D + 77.86
2010: Fattah (D) 89.30% - Rick Hellberg (R) 10.70% = D + 78.60
CHANGE: D + 0.74

CA-34: Lucille Roybal-Allard
2008: Roybal-Allard (D) 77.09% - Christopher Balding (R) 22.91% = D + 54.18
2010: Roybal-Allard (D) 77.23% - Wayne Miller (R) 22.77% = D + 54.46
CHANGE: D + 0.28

IL-05: Michael Quigley
2009: Quigley (D) 69.24% - Rosanna Pulido (R) 24.16% = D + 45.08
2010: Quigley (D) 70.62% - David Ratowitz (R) 25.38% = D + 45.24
CHANGE: D + 0.16

Republican Incumbents Whose Margins DECREASED
MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson
2008: Emerson (R) 71.44% - Joe Allen (D) 26.16% = R + 45.28
2010: Emerson (R) 65.56% - Tommy Sowers (D) 28.76% = R + 36.80
CHANGE: R - 8.48

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack
2008: Bono Mack (R) 58.29% - Julie Bornstein (D) 41.71% = R + 16.58
2010: Bono Mack (R) 51.49% - Steve Pougnet (D) 42.14% = R + 09.35
CHANGE: R - 7.23

MT-AL: Dennis Rehberg
2008: Rehberg (R) 64.14% - John Driscoll (D) 32.43% = R + 31.71
2010: Rehberg (R) 60.41% - Dennis McDonald (D) 33.84% = R + 26.57
CHANGE: R - 5.14

WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers
2008: McMorris Rodgers (R) 65.28% - Mark Mays (D) 34.72% = R + 30.56
2010: McMorris Rodgers (R) 63.67% - Daryl Romeyn (D) 36.33% = R + 27.34
CHANGE: R - 3.22

PA-15: Charlie Dent
2008: Dent (R) 58.57% - Sam Bennett (D) 41.43% = R + 17.14
2010: Dent (R) 53.55% - John B. Callahan (D) 39.00% = R + 14.55
CHANGE: R - 2.59

CA-02: Wally Herger
2008: Herger (R) 57.89% - Jeff Morris (D) 42.11% = R + 15.78
2010: Herger (R) 57.14% - Jim Reed (D) 42.86% = R + 14.28
CHANGE: R - 1.50

WA-08: Dave Reichert
2008: Reichert (R) 52.78% - Darcy Burner (D) 47.22% = R + 05.56
2010: Reichert (R) 52.05% - Suzan DelBene (D) 47.95% = R + 04.10
CHANGE: R - 1.46

NE-03: Adrian M. Smith
2008: Smith (R) 76.87% - Jay C. Stoddard (D) 23.13% = R + 53.74
2010: Smith (R) 70.15% - Rebekah Davis (D) 17.84% = R + 52.31
CHANGE: R - 1.43

VA-07: Eric Cantor
2008: Cantor (R) 62.72% - Anita Hartke (D) 37.09% = R + 25.63
2010: Cantor (R) 59.21% - Rick E. Waugh, Jr. (D) 34.11% = R + 25.10
CHANGE: R - 0.53

OH-08: John Boehner
2008: Boehner (R) 67.90% - Nicholas von Stein (D) 32.10% = R + 35.80
2010: Boehner (R) 65.64% - Justin Coussoule (D) 30.30% = R + 35.34
CHANGE: R - 0.46

[Sam Spade]

Gaffney wasn't running as a Republican, she ran on the Conservative party only.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems: Freshman, freshman, no Republican, freshman, no Cindy Sheehan, freshman, insignificant shift x4.

Reps: serious opponent + bigger third-party share x2, no idea x2, serious opponent, unpopular incumbent, better opponent, third-party candidate x3.

[cannonia]

P.S.  Does anyone else find it ironic that Nancy Pelosi's margin increased while she became Minority Leader, and John Boehner's margin decreased while he became Speaker?

No, because of the Cindy Sheehan protest vote in 2008.

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Special elections...  Both races were discussed on these forums.

[memphis]

OMGZ, NE-3 will soon be solid Dem !!111

[Keystone Phil]

I still don't understand what the hell happened in PA 2. I know both candidates pretty well (one of them is actually more of a friend). Our 2008 nominee wasn't just running in 2008 in one of the worst districts for us in the country during an historic Presidential election but he had less time to campaign. Someone else had been nominated in the primary but withdrew. Our nominee this year was incredibly impressive and was getting a lot of praise from both sides. There were also national climate/midterm advantages yet he still managed to do worse. Very weird.

[Torie]

I still don't understand what the hell happened in PA 2. I know both candidates pretty well (one of them is actually more of a friend). Our 2008 nominee wasn't just running in 2008 in one of the worst districts for us in the country during an historic Presidential election but he had less time to campaign. Someone else had been nominated in the primary but withdrew. Our nominee this year was incredibly impressive and was getting a lot of praise from both sides. There were also national climate/midterm advantages yet he still managed to do worse. Very weird.

The last few Republicans left in PA-02 (say in Chestnut Hill) may still be in the process of  decamping. JJ may be about the only one left. PA-02 is the 4th most Dem CD in the nation, and the way I just redrew it, it will become the number three Dem seat, with Obama pulling in 91% of the vote (Chestnut Hill among other things is no longer in CD-02).

Help will soon be on the way for Charlie Dent.

[Keystone Phil]

I still don't understand what the hell happened in PA 2. I know both candidates pretty well (one of them is actually more of a friend). Our 2008 nominee wasn't just running in 2008 in one of the worst districts for us in the country during an historic Presidential election but he had less time to campaign. Someone else had been nominated in the primary but withdrew. Our nominee this year was incredibly impressive and was getting a lot of praise from both sides. There were also national climate/midterm advantages yet he still managed to do worse. Very weird.

The last few Republicans left in PA-02 (say in Chestnut Hill) may still be in the process of  decamping. JJ may be about the only one left. PA-02 is the 4th most Dem CD in the nation, and the way I just redrew it, it will become the number three Dem seat, with Obama pulling in 91% of the vote (Chestnut Hill among other things is no longer in CD-02).

Help will soon be on the way for Charlie Dent.

I could see what you're saying about Chestnut Hill but there are pockets of South Philly in the 2nd that are Republican. No, not just receptive to Republicans but actually Republican. Both of our nominees won those areas.

[Torie]

I still don't understand what the hell happened in PA 2. I know both candidates pretty well (one of them is actually more of a friend). Our 2008 nominee wasn't just running in 2008 in one of the worst districts for us in the country during an historic Presidential election but he had less time to campaign. Someone else had been nominated in the primary but withdrew. Our nominee this year was incredibly impressive and was getting a lot of praise from both sides. There were also national climate/midterm advantages yet he still managed to do worse. Very weird.

The last few Republicans left in PA-02 (say in Chestnut Hill) may still be in the process of  decamping. JJ may be about the only one left. PA-02 is the 4th most Dem CD in the nation, and the way I just redrew it, it will become the number three Dem seat, with Obama pulling in 91% of the vote (Chestnut Hill among other things is no longer in CD-02).

Help will soon be on the way for Charlie Dent.

I could see what you're saying about Chestnut Hill but there are pockets of South Philly in the 2nd that are Republican. No, not just receptive to Republicans but actually Republican. Both of our nominees won those areas.

Actually Phil that South Philly Pubbie pocket was about evenly split between PA-01 and PA-02, per the existing PA CD map (not that you meant to suggest otherwise, but the numbers are relatively small, split or otherwise). Here are the numbers for the entirety South Philly Pubbie pocket for 2008:

Obama 6,380
McCain 6,723   
Total  13,101 51.31% McCain

This pocket in my new PA map is now all in PA-07.  When drawing maps, efficiency is my motto.  Here (scroll down to the bottom of the page, with zooms of the Philly area above)  is the link to my PA map in case  you are interested.

Oh Phil, why do City of Philadelphia precincts have such small populations? Is it because it helps the Philly ward bosses get the vote out, because voters only need to walk one block to their precinct to their voting place to vote, or what?

[Keystone Phil]

I still don't understand what the hell happened in PA 2. I know both candidates pretty well (one of them is actually more of a friend). Our 2008 nominee wasn't just running in 2008 in one of the worst districts for us in the country during an historic Presidential election but he had less time to campaign. Someone else had been nominated in the primary but withdrew. Our nominee this year was incredibly impressive and was getting a lot of praise from both sides. There were also national climate/midterm advantages yet he still managed to do worse. Very weird.

The last few Republicans left in PA-02 (say in Chestnut Hill) may still be in the process of  decamping. JJ may be about the only one left. PA-02 is the 4th most Dem CD in the nation, and the way I just redrew it, it will become the number three Dem seat, with Obama pulling in 91% of the vote (Chestnut Hill among other things is no longer in CD-02).

Help will soon be on the way for Charlie Dent.

I could see what you're saying about Chestnut Hill but there are pockets of South Philly in the 2nd that are Republican. No, not just receptive to Republicans but actually Republican. Both of our nominees won those areas.

Actually Phil that South Philly Pubbie pocket was about evenly split between PA-01 and PA-02,

No, the specific pocket I'm referring to is entirely in the 2nd. You're including an area that is generally receptive to Republicans but is still a lean Dem area.

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It's probably a combination of both reasons. In these South Philly precincts, there really is no reason why someone can't get out to vote. Your polling place is almost literally right around the corner.

[Torie]

Phil, the South Philly GOP pocket to which I refer (and there is no other GOP pocket in South Philly) is surrounded by a wall of heavily Dem precincts (nothing below 60% Obama, with about a third of the appending precincts about 70% Obama, with one above 80% Obama). There is nothing left to pick up. And this pocket is about evenly split between the existing PA-01 and PA-02, plus or minus a bit. I could do the splits between the existing PA-01 and PA-02 of this handful of voters in about 3 minutes if you wish.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, the South Philly GOP pocket to which I refer is surrounded by a wall of heavily Dem precincts. There is nothing left to pick up. And it is about evenly split, plus or minus a bit. I could so the splits between the existing PA-01 and PA-02 of this handful of voters in about 3 minutes if you wish.

Torie, I'm not talking about anything to pick up. You're misunderstanding my point. I'm just pointing out that there is a specific Republican pocket that you're lumping in with a not so Republican area.

[Torie]

Phil, the South Philly GOP pocket to which I refer is surrounded by a wall of heavily Dem precincts. There is nothing left to pick up. And it is about evenly split, plus or minus a bit. I could so the splits between the existing PA-01 and PA-02 of this handful of voters in about 3 minutes if you wish.

Torie, I'm not talking about anything to pick up. You're misunderstanding my point. I'm just pointing out that there is a specific Republican pocket that you're lumping in with a not so Republican area.

What area am I "lumping in" that is a "not so Republican area?"  What I described loosely as "Chestnut Hill" in that NWW edge of the strip of the triangle of Philly that juts against Montco that I chose to append to PA-07 (perhaps mistakenly now that I have done the numbers), voted as follows:

Obama 4,381   57.49%
McCain 3,245   
Total    7,626   

The only other relatively "Pubbie zone" in the City of Philly (other than 5 precincts that overall were marginally Obama which link along the Delaware River in my map PA-13  from its City of Philly sector, which  along the Delaware River almost touches downtown Philly, to its quite substantial "attack" on the Dem precincts in Bucks County), is a carefully selected (and at the edges quite erose) series of contiguous precincts in your neck of the woods. This NE sector of Philly is indeed quite substantial, and makes South Philly and "Chestnut Hill" seem like rounding error for purposes of using as Pubbie "cutouts." This relatively Pubbie sector of NE Philly voted as follows:

Obama 37,971   52.38%
McCain 34,521      
Total    72,492

This carefully selected series of NE Philly precincts were all dumped by me in my map into PA-08, because everything else in the neighborhood was worse for the purpose of maximizing the Dem sink of appending precincts of the troika of Dem  CD's, PA-01, PA-02 and PA-13, respectively.

In short, everything else, other than described above, the cutouts of NE Philly, South Philly and "Chestnut Hill," is nothing other than a massive Dem sink in the City of Brotherly Love. Everything.

[Keystone Phil]

We're misunderstanding each other. I thought you said the strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in the 2nd; you said they are split between the 1st and 2nd but were referring to your new map, not the current map.

The strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in most of the 26th Ward. The not so Republican but still receptive to the GOP areas of South Philly are in the neighboring 39th Ward.

[Torie]

We're misunderstanding each other. I thought you said the strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in the 2nd; you said they are split between the 1st and 2nd but were referring to your new map, not the current map.

The strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in most of the 26th Ward. The not so Republican but still receptive to the GOP areas of South Philly are in the neighboring 39th Ward.

No in the current map, the South Philly precincts are split between PA-01 and PA-02. In my map, none are in either CD. Rather they are all in PA-07.

[Keystone Phil]

We're misunderstanding each other. I thought you said the strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in the 2nd; you said they are split between the 1st and 2nd but were referring to your new map, not the current map.

The strong pocket of Republicans in South Philly are in most of the 26th Ward. The not so Republican but still receptive to the GOP areas of South Philly are in the neighboring 39th Ward.

No in the current map, the South Philly precincts are split between PA-01 and PA-02.

The South Philly precincts in the specific Republican stronghold which I am referring to are not split between those two. I will stand corrected on this though: the 26th Ward (which is home to that stronghold) isn't entirely in the 2nd. Two precincts are in the 1st.

[Torie]

Well then, Dave Bradlee's software must be flawed.

[bgwah]

In WA-8, Reichert's opponent (DelBene) was a self-funder, which I'm sure helped counter the GOP wave. Still, he should have won by more than he did... he ran a pretty poor campaign IMO. Other things worth mentioning would be the Seattle Times endorsing DelBene (they endorsed Reichert both times against Burner), but I'm not sure newspaper endorsements are all that critical anymore. And the fact that Reichert was caught saying some pretty stupid things (I occasionally vote this way just to make myself look moderate!).

[Keystone Phil]

Well then, Dave Bradlee's software must be flawed.

...

I don't think software is going to pinpoint the specific GOP stronghold I'm referring to unless it comes with commentary.