States Voting Together

[jimrtex]

In the following diagram, the 2004 election is at the top, 1840 at the bottom.  The winner at each election is the left branch (MO is therefore has the longest streak of being correct)

[Хahar 🤔]

Bump for a great map. I've been waiting for one of these for a long time. The results aren't exactly surprising, but it's interesting how long VT and CA have been together.

[SPC]

Missibama's been voting together since 1840!?

[ottermax]

Only eleven states don't have "pairs:" MA, MD, NH, ME, WY, NE, TX, GA, WV, NV, KY, and MO. All with interesting voting habits.

[nclib]

Interesting map. I'd say in November, the ones most likely to break are TN-OH or CO-MT, with the other ones likely remaining.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Interesting map. I'd say in November, the ones most likely to break are TN-OH or CO-MT, with the other ones likely remaining.

OK-VA ia probably breaking, also.

[Хahar 🤔]

NH is the "uniquest" state.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     It's a sad commentary on the electoral performance of Democrats when DC votes for a winner the least often.

     It's also amazing that so many states have voted Republican consistently for the last 40 years.

[minionofmidas]

Missibama's been voting together since 1840!?

Only if you count Alabama 1960 as voting against Kennedy as well as against Nixon... which is... not entirely outside the ballpark... but certainly not "right", either.

Although for the purpose of a graph like this, "keep'em together in case of doubt" makes sense.

[Sensei]

Interesting map. I'd say in November, the ones most likely to break are TN-OH or CO-MT, with the other ones likely remaining.

OK-VA ia probably breaking, also.

I would call that one a "Possibly" rather than a "Probably" personally. The campaign is still young.

[jimrtex]

Missibama's been voting together since 1840!?

Only if you count Alabama 1960 as voting against Kennedy as well as against Nixon... which is... not entirely outside the ballpark... but certainly not "right", either.
Although for the purpose of a graph like this, "keep'em together in case of doubt" makes sense.

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.  You might have a better case for a 1868 (which I just noticed should have been credited to Grant).

[Associate Justice PiT]

Missibama's been voting together since 1840!?

Only if you count Alabama 1960 as voting against Kennedy as well as against Nixon... which is... not entirely outside the ballpark... but certainly not "right", either.
Although for the purpose of a graph like this, "keep'em together in case of doubt" makes sense.

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.  You might have a better case for a 1868 (which I just noticed should have been credited to Grant).

     Eh, I'm sure that Mississippi voted for Grant in spirit.

[Verily]

     It's a sad commentary on the electoral performance of Democrats when DC votes for a winner the least often.

Only because the most recent Presidential election was won by a Republican. If Obama wins in 2008, the new chart will place DC to the left of the center (because it will have been right at the most recent election, and Obama is unlikely to win more than half of all states). About where Utah is.

[jimrtex]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.  You might have a better case for a 1868 (which I just noticed should have been credited to Grant).

     Eh, I'm sure that Mississippi voted for Grant in spirit.

In July 1868, Mississippi held congressional elections that chose 4 Democrats and 1 Republicans, but the House rejected the results.  In November of 1869, Mississippi held new elections and elected 5 Republicans, who were all seated.

[minionofmidas]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.

Ah, the *electors*. Next thing you'll start crediting Florida to Bush in 2000.

[Associate Justice PiT]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.  You might have a better case for a 1868 (which I just noticed should have been credited to Grant).

     Eh, I'm sure that Mississippi voted for Grant in spirit.

In July 1868, Mississippi held congressional elections that chose 4 Democrats and 1 Republicans, but the House rejected the results.  In November of 1869, Mississippi held new elections and elected 5 Republicans, who were all seated.

     Yeah, that was a bad attempt at a joke.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I like how Minnesota is paired with D.C.... cuz it's about all we have in common.

[minionofmidas]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.  You might have a better case for a 1868 (which I just noticed should have been credited to Grant).

     Eh, I'm sure that Mississippi voted for Grant in spirit.

In July 1868, Mississippi held congressional elections that chose 4 Democrats and 1 Republicans, but the House rejected the results.  In November of 1869, Mississippi held new elections and elected 5 Republicans, who were all seated.

     Yeah, that was a bad attempt at a joke.

Well there is the slight matter of Black enfranchisement... Blacks were a majority of the population back then, you know?

[Хahar 🤔]

Jim, will you make another one of these in November?

[jimrtex]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.

Ah, the *electors*. Next thing you'll start crediting Florida to Bush in 2000.

The electors in Alabama were chosen by the Democratic voters in their primary.  Neither Kennedy nor Byrd's name appeared on the ballot.

[minionofmidas]

A majority of the electors in both Alabama and Mississippi voted for Byrd.

Ah, the *electors*. Next thing you'll start crediting Florida to Bush in 2000.

The electors in Alabama were chosen by the Democratic voters in their primary.  Neither Kennedy nor Byrd's name appeared on the ballot.

Yeah, I know. It's OK.



Of course Byrd's name didn't appear on any ballots - he wasn't a candidate. In both AL and MS  (and LA too, though the regular Dems won here) we're effectively talking conditional vs unconditional Kennedy/Johnson delegates. In GA, only conditional Kennedy/Johnson delegates  and Nixon/Lodge electors stood, the difference being the Kennedy received their EVs but not the MS and conditional AL votes.

[go85bucks10]

The graph shows Kansas voting Cleveland in 1892, but they voted populist. Great graph none the less. Amazing to look at.

[jimrtex]

The graph shows Kansas voting Cleveland in 1892, but they voted populist. Great graph none the less. Amazing to look at.

Oops!  Cleveland wasn't on the ballot in Kansas in 1892, and North Dakota also voted Populist in 1892, but it was actually a Populist-Democrat fusion ticket in which two electors from the fusion ticket were elected, with one voting for Cleveland and one for Weaver.  The 3rd elector was a Republican who voted for Harrison.  I've redone with the chart, showing both Kansas and North Dakota voting for a 3rd party in 1892, which was North Dakota's first presidential election, while Kansas voted for Harrison.

You may have to do a refresh to see the updated chart.

[jimrtex]

In the following diagram, the 2004 election is at the top, 1840 at the bottom.  The winner at each election is the left branch (MO is therefore has the longest streak of being correct)

Following the 2008 election, assuming that McCain carries Missouri and Obama carries North Carolina:

The following pairs are dissolved:
IN and SD since 1916. 

SD now joins (its fellow plains states of ND, NE, and KS since 1920.  IN is now the most reliable Republican state, having voted for a Democrat in 1896 (Bryan) by 0.2%, FDR for his first two terms only in 1932 and 1936, and LBJ in 1964.  Even when SD voted for Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, it was as the nominee of the SD Republican party.

IN joins VA since 1952.
VA and OK since 1924.

OK join ID and UT since 1928.

VA joins IN since 1952.
OH and TN since 1948,

TN joins KY since 1956.

OH joins NV since 1980, and also becomes the bellwether for the US (since 1964) replacing MO.
CO and MT since 1948.

MT joins GA since 1984.

CO joins IN, NC, and VA since 1996
NC and SC since 1968.

SC joins TX, MS, AL since 1972

NC joins VA and IN since 1980
FL and AZ since 1980.

FL joins OH and NV since 1996.

AZ joins MO, TN, KY, AR, LA, WV since 1996
NV and 7 states since 1980.

NV and OH, the only one of the 7 to vote for Obama (since 1980)
NM and IA since 1992

Continues as these were the only states to switch parties in both 2004 and 2008.

[Nym90]

There's actually a slight error in the chart as KS and ND split in 1896 (KS D, ND R).