UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 9 (Wales)

[London Man]

Now we're getting interesting. Will Plaid Cymru do well here?

Constituency MP Name Party Prediction 
Aberavon  Hywel Francis  LAB Hold
Alyn and Deeside  Mark Tami  LAB Hold
Blaenau Gwent  Llew Smith  LAB Hold
Brecon and Radnorshire  Roger Williams  LIB Hold
Bridgend  Win Griffiths  LAB Hold
Caernarfon  Hywel Williams  PC Hold
Caerphilly  Wayne David  LAB Hold
Cardiff Central  Jon Owen Jones  LIB Gain from LAB: 659 votes is too small to hold it.
Cardiff North  Julie Morgan  LAB Hold
Cardiff South and Penarth  Alun Michael  LAB Hold: He's Rural Affairs Minister, but this is a city. Callaghan's old seat will stay red.
Cardiff West  Kevin Brennan  LAB Hold
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr  Adam Price  PC Hold
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South  Nick Ainger  LAB Hold
Ceredigion  Simon Thomas  PC Hold
Clwyd South  Martyn Jones  LAB Hold
Clwyd West  Gareth Thomas  CON gain from LAB: The majority's just too small and he voted for the hunting ban. Even Electoral Calculus gives him a lead of only 0.01%.
Conwy  Betty Williams  LAB Hold
Cynon Valley  Ann Clwyd  LAB Hold
Delyn  David Hanson  LAB Hold
Gower  Martin Caton  LAB Hold
Islwyn  Don Touhig  LAB Hold
Llanelli  LAB Hold
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy  Elfyn Llwyd  PC Hold
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney  Dai Havard  LAB Hold
Monmouth  Huw Edwards  CON Gain from LAB: Edwards won by less than 1,000 votes. Voting for the hunting ban will finish him off.
Montgomeryshire  Lembit Opik  LIB Hold: He'll be around for a while yet.
Neath  Peter Hain  LAB Hold: The Lord Privy Seal is as safe as anything.
Newport East  Alan Howarth  LAB Hold
Newport West  Paul Flynn  LAB Hold
Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies  LAB Hold- This place had one of the few by-elections of this Parliament (Dec 2001 due to Ray Powell's death), where PC 2nd placed. PC will do the same this time, but he's safe.
Pontypridd  Kim Howells  LAB Hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire LAB Hold
Rhondda  Chris Bryant  LAB Hold: Wasn't this the guy who took a picture of himself in his underwear? It won't be enough to swing it unless there's another Tatton.
Swansea East  LAB Hold
Swansea West  Alan Williams  LAB Hold
Torfaen  Paul Murphy  LAB Hold
Vale of Clwyd  Chris Ruane  LAB Hold
Vale of Glamorgan  John Smith  LAB Hold
Wrexham  Ian Lucas  LAB Hold
Ynys Mon  Albert Owen  PC Gain from LAB: Tories will 3rd place here, LDs end up 4th.

[Peter]

I agree for the most part here, though I would say that Clwyd West will move into the Conservative column - a majority of a little over 1,000 won't protect the incumbent against the national drop of support for Labour.

Also to note: For Carmarthen East you use NAT, but for the other PC seats, you use PC.

Chris Bryant will be fine - its not like he's accused of anything grossly immoral, unlike Neil Hamilton. And even if he was, its Rhondda for crying out loud.

Also, Donald Anderson is standing down at the next election.

[Sibboleth]

Brecon and Radnor: A seriously weird seat... Rador and most of Brecon swings between the Liberals and the Tories, but the extreme SW of the seat is fanatically Labour. I'll only predict this one when I find out who's running.

Caernarfon: potential upset here. Not likely, but I'd love to see it...

Cardiff Central: Traditionally Tory, which in places like this translates into LibDemness. Easy LibDem win.

Cardiff South and Penarth: Not really a City seat... more a blue collar 'burb seat. Michael is safe.

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr: Historically a Lab/Nat swinger (the seat's a mix of ultra-Nat East Camarthen, and solidly Labour SE Camarthen) Plaid are doing badly at the moment... the odious Adam Price might go down.

Ceredigion: The Liberals would kill to regain their old fiefdom... good turnouts in Aber and in rural areas could see it happen. The Nats need a good turnout in Cardigan and along the coast to hang on. Labour freakishly won this (twice! And with less than 40% both times!) in the '60's and '70's, but unless voting is restricted to Lampeter and the council estastes outside Aber, no chance of that fluke being repeated.

Clwyd West: How Labour won this is beyond me... The Tories won in the '66 sweep!!! Hunting Ban =Normal Service to be resumed

Llanelli: Small chance of a Nat upset (IIRC Davies is retiring) but I don't see it right now.

Monmouth: Used to be a swinger: Cwmbran was cut out for '83 and it became a safe Tory seat. In theory. For 2005 see Clwyd West.

Pontypridd: The next P.M (if only...) will win easily.

Preseli Pembrokeshire: Lawrence is retiring. Possible Tory upset. Doubt it.
Rhondda: Yes, the Rhondda is socially conservative and Bryant is gay, but it didn't hurt him in 2001 (despite a disgusting homophobic campaign by the Nat candidate) and the mismanagement of the local council by the Nats resulted in a Labour landslide earlier this year (only a handful of Nats survived). Bryant is also a good constituency M.P

Swansea East: Blue collar 'burbs. Anderson is retiring, but it's a Labour stronghold.

Wrexham: It'll be amusing to see "Forward Wales" get a drubbing here... not worth watching for a lot else...

Ynys Mon: Anglesey might change parties a lot, but I don't think a sitting M.P has lost here for a long time.

[English]

Agreed apart from Ceredigion, certain LD Gain.

Cardiff Central is a certain LD Gain.
Similarly Clwyd West and Monmouth are certain CON Gains.

The Tories might gain Brecon and Radnor, watch for that one.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

hey there i am very interested in the plaid cymru party but i dont know if it leans tory or labour is there a website for them? im wondering either way im happy to see welsh nationals getting their act together and not being part of the 2 big parties. I saw an election map from the preivious years and saw they only held the more northern counties and that the southern ones went heavy labour wich as my family is from port talbot I was very dissapointed in this but i babble and im just wondring if you had any information on them

[London Man]

Plaid Cymru's website:

http://www.plaidcymru.org/

They're a socialist party, but they don't like Labour. They're the ones behind the impeachment bid.

[Sibboleth]

They're a socialist party

BAH!!!!!

Tell that to people in RCT...

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

RCT...

What's RCT?

[Sibboleth]

RCT...

What's RCT?

Rhondda-Cynon-Taff, a Unitary Authority in the Valleys (as you can work out by the name).
The Nats won control of it in 1999 because of a scandal over a waste tip, along with the general protest voting seen in 1999.

Pretty much all they did when in control was go on a budget slashing spree (although Council Tax and Councillers Allowances etc. went up by a lot), grandstanding, cutting back council services (in one of the poorest Local Authorities in the U.K), embezzeling (note to lawyers: I didn't say that)... you get the idea. Cargo Cult Libertarians the lot of 'em...

When the council came up for re-election it was brutal: before the election RCT had a small (but not tiny) Nat majority. It now has one of the biggest Labour majorities in the country...

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

...and few if any of the changes were undone, right?

That's the way it usually plays out...

[Sibboleth]

...and few if any of the changes were undone, right?

That's the way it usually plays out...

Problem with local politics in Wales is that terms are fixed at 5 years... I'm not sure how the new administration in RCT will do yet. I *hope* they'll remember that RCT is one of the poorest parts of the U.K, has a serious drug problem etc. etc... but I'm worried they'll try to get awards for balanced budgets and stuff (that is NOT what local government should be about. Bloody Thatcher...)
Local AM's and MP's are in favour of the council doing what it should do so...
Wait and see...
---
The big problem with 5 year terms is that in Wales you get a lot of protest voting in local elections... and the electorate are then stuck with the protest party for 5 years...

[London Man]

Updated.

[Rural Radical]

Am I right in thinking that Montgomery is the only sweat in wales that has never elected a labour mp.

AS NW Wales (Caernafon etc was labour up to 1974 and brecon up to 1979) used to be and credigion was labour in 1966

[Sibboleth]

Am I right in thinking that Montgomery is the only sweat in wales that has never elected a labour mp.

Yep... with the brief exception of 79-83 (when it was Tory) it's been Liberal since the late C19th

[London Man]

Ynys Mon has been held by all four parties for extended periods of time.