Barack Obama will win reelection

[ilikeverin]

Prediction:

Barack Obama will win reelection, and it will not be very close.

I've been saying this for a while.  Well, the first part, anyway.

[RJEvans]

I think it is way too early to tell if Obama will be reelected. Clinton and Reagan says he will, but I think circumstances are different this go around. The biggest factor is Democratic turnout. Democratic turnout in 2010 was 3 million votes lower than the 2006 election. Republicans was 9 million higher. Democrats will have to use the Republican House to their advantage and rally the base. Another question is how much influence will the Tea Party exert? Will they focus their anger on Democrats, or will they decide to run their own candidate? Then there are economic questions, security questions, challenger questions and a host of other elements that we just can't predict.

[ilikeverin]

The biggest factor in Obama's re-election will be the state of the economy.  The economy will have recovered by then (and, if it hasn't or if it enters a second recession, or whatnot, I think it might not be entirely unfair to toss Obama out).  Ergo, Obama will win re-election.

[Inmate Trump]

I'm not a fan, but I think he'll win reelection too.  At least unless the GOP gets a worthy enough candidate to beat him--and all of their current "field" would lose in a head to head matchup....

[tmthforu94]

I think the Presidential race can go either way right now. Regarding the Senate, I think Republicans will take it back. The only seats we have a chance to lose in, really, is Nevada and Massachusetts, and possibly Maine if Snowe loses the primary and doesn't run as an Independent. On the other hand, Democrats have around 12, give or take a few (Cantwell, Tester, Kohl (assuming he retires), Conrad, both Nelsons, McCaskill, Stabenow, Brown, Casey, Webb, Menendez). Republicans have a good chance of at least picking up 4 of those, if not more.

[Inmate Trump]

I think the Presidential race can go either way right now. Regarding the Senate, I think Republicans will take it back. The only seats we have a chance to lose in, really, is Nevada and Massachusetts, and possibly Maine if Snowe loses the primary and doesn't run as an Independent. On the other hand, Democrats have around 12, give or take a few (Cantwell, Tester, Kohl (assuming he retires), Conrad, both Nelsons, McCaskill, Stabenow, Brown, Casey, Webb, Menendez). Republicans have a good chance of at least picking up 4 of those, if not more.

The Senate may be in play, but I'm not so hopeful for the White House.  It might be close, but I just don't see the Republicans winning it back this time.  If they had a good candidate, sure.  But they don't.

[milhouse24]

I think Obama will lose Florida and Ohio. 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Barring a double dip, the only Republican who could win the general election is Mitch Daniels.

[Mehmentum]

I think Obama will lose Florida and Ohio. 

I think you are right.  Both Ohio and Florida voted for Obama by a smaller margin than the country as a whole, but he really doesn't need those two states to win.  Obama performed much better in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and to a lesser extent Virginia, and I think he will probably win in the first three.

If Obama looses Ohio and Florida, but wins Nevada, Colorado, and Iowa, then he will win the election.

[opebo]

Carter was simply horrible combined with an opponent like few incumbents will ever face.

Well he was an excellent president, just a poor politician..