NH-Magellan Strategies: Romney 39% Palin 16% Huckabee 10% Gingrich 8% Paul 7%

[Mr. Morden]

NH-Magellan Strategies: Romney 39% Palin 16% Huckabee 10%

Magellan Strategies GOP primary poll of NH:

http://nhjournal.com/2011/01/06/romney-flexes-muscle-in-first-nh-primary-poll-while-palin-and-others-lag-behind/

Romney 39%
Palin 16%
Huckabee 10%
Gingrich 8%
Paul 7%
Pawlenty 4%
Santorum 3%
Barbour 1%

favorability / unfavorability among GOP primary voters:

Palin 59 / 31%
Pawlenty 30 / 14%
Huckabee 55 / 27%
Gingrich 52 / 32%
Santorum 27 / 20%
Romney 73 / 16%
Barbour 21 / 22%
Paul 41 / 28%

[Poundingtherock]

Romney is down 1% from the last poll in May
Palin is up 5%
Pawlenty down 1%
Paul up 1%
Huckabee stable
Gingrich down 8%

So the fair assumption is that Palin and Gingirch are trading votes in New Hampshire.

Interesting that Palin is actually more popular than Kelly Ayotte was in the last Magellan primary poll (Ayotte was 54/34 favorable/unfavorable).

Prediction: Romney loses to Palin or some other conservative in New Hampshire (which will end the race) because of this:

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/rudy_gearing_up_for_dc_run_ZS2RMoR4850sIr72xti5NL

[Tender Branson]

I don't see how Romney could lose this ...

[California8429]

I don't see how Romney could lose this ...

he lost it in 08 and the state loved him.

I just don't see how he rises, he isn't exciting. The things that is keeping him up in the polls is Mitt Romney the myth, the guy not scene on TV, but talked about being a successful business executive and Governor that will give us all jobs. It's sorta like "generic republican". Once he's back in the spotlight, everybody will take hits at him and if Health Care is front and center he's gone. Still a chance he can win the nomination and even the presidency, but I just think he's over rated simply because we haven't seen him in 1.5 years

[Tender Branson]

I don't see how Romney could lose this ...

he lost it in 08 and the state loved him.

I just don't see how he rises, he isn't exciting. The things that is keeping him up in the polls is Mitt Romney the myth, the guy not scene on TV, but talked about being a successful business executive and Governor that will give us all jobs. It's sorta like "generic republican". Once he's back in the spotlight, everybody will take hits at him and if Health Care is front and center he's gone. Still a chance he can win the nomination and even the presidency, but I just think he's over rated simply because we haven't seen him in 1.5 years

True, but Romney never had such a big advantage in early 2007 like he does today:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=33

And Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich are hardly as appealing as McCain to Independents who are likely to participate in the GOP primary.

[Poundingtherock]

Tender,

Ever heard of Rudy Giuliani?  And do you really think Pawlenty or Daniels isn't going to get any cut from Romney's percentage and stay at 3-4% the entire race?

Huckabee won't be in the race in New Hampshire.  So a good moderate candidate should be able to cut down Romney to where a Palin or someone else (Huckabee may be a stretch in New Hampshire) will win it.

[Poundingtherock]

Tender,

You are wrong again.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_120407.html

Romney was up 37-20 on McCain in New Hampshire in December of 2007.

That's not far from the 39-16 advantage he has on Palin right now with Huckabee in the race.  And we haven't had a strong moderate emerge yet.  I'll bet that Daniels or Pawlenty will get double digits at least in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't see how Romney could lose this ...

he lost it in 08 and the state loved him.

I just don't see how he rises, he isn't exciting. The things that is keeping him up in the polls is Mitt Romney the myth, the guy not scene on TV, but talked about being a successful business executive and Governor that will give us all jobs. It's sorta like "generic republican". Once he's back in the spotlight, everybody will take hits at him and if Health Care is front and center he's gone. Still a chance he can win the nomination and even the presidency, but I just think he's over rated simply because we haven't seen him in 1.5 years

True, but Romney never had such a big advantage in early 2007 like he does today:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=33

And Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich are hardly as appealing as McCain to Independents who are likely to participate in the GOP primary.

He was up by like 18 points in November 2007 (and more than 20 ahead of McCain in some polls), less than two months before the primary, and ended up losing to McCain by 5, a swing of more than 20.  Today, he's up by just over 20, and we still have a whole year to go, with numerous candidates who are still unknown, and the potential to break out.  It's not Palin or Huckabee who are the threat to Romney in New Hampshire.  It's candidates like Daniels and Pawlenty, who are presently unknown, and whose ultimate potential is yet to be tested.

I mean, we've seen this story a million times.  Where was McCain in the NH polls back in January 1999?  He ended up winning it by 19 points a year later.  Where was Buchanan in the NH polls back in January 1995?  He ended up winning it a year later.  It is way to early to call anything in 2012.

Romney has NH in the bag.

[Poundingtherock]

Zogby telephone poll (distinguishable from the Zogby Interactive that some here foolishly cite) showed Romney up 18 on McCain 35-17. 

http://zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm?ID=1395

It looks like Romney's ceiling in NH is probably around 35%.  The question is how much Pawlenty and Daniels can knock off from Romney to allow someone like Palin to win.  If people honestly believe Trump can win 15% in NH, then I suspect Pawlenty and Daniels could match that.

[AlexMonteiro93]

I bet romney wins... btw he was govrenror of massachussets

[Niemeyerite]

Aposto em Mitt Romney afinal ele foi governador de Massachussetts

Bem-vindo meu amigo! wlecome my friend

[RogueBeaver]

Pawlenty and Daniels have precisely zero name recognition. Pawlenty has underwater approval ratings in his home state, could not carry his own party's candidate to victory, and has basically done the equivalent of jumping up and down, flapping his arms screaming "look at me!" for 18 months now. Effect on the polls: Zero.

Romney will win NH, because I am highly skeptical that Palin and Huck will run.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty and Daniels have precisely zero name recognition.

Right, just like McCain in January 1999 or Huckabee in January 2007.  Didn't stop them from winning some primaries a year later.

And poor job approval ratings in your home state don't prevent you from winning some primaries.  Just ask Romney 2008.

[Brittain33]

Did Romney move to NH and establish residency there before or after the 2008 race?