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| | |-+  Obama winning South Carolina by removing upstate corner.
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Author Topic: Obama winning South Carolina by removing upstate corner.  (Read 391 times)
TDAS04
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« on: December 27, 2013, 11:35:14 am »
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Inspired by Cope1989's Georgia thread. 

Could Obama have carried South Carolina in 2008 or 2012 if the shaded counties had been removed?
If not, which other contiguous counties would have to be removed to create an Obama win in the state?
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2013, 12:51:31 pm »
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Obama only slid about a point in the new SC, but still lost in both years.

2008:
McCain- 50.5%
Obama- 48.4%

2012:
Romney- 51.1%
Obama- 47.7%
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2013, 01:11:03 pm »
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Most likely, the answer is to continue along the Georgia border to remove Lexington County and Aiken County.
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2013, 03:39:21 pm »
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This would make South Carolina go to Obama 51-48, about the same margin as Florida in 2008.
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cope1989
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2013, 03:48:18 pm »
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Okay, but the difference between SC and Georgia is that the area of SC you cut off actually contains a big chunk of its population. I believe a lot of Greenville/Spartanburg is in that area- the fastest growing area of the state.

My point with Georgia is that the area I cut off is really a pretty small part of the state's population, yet it is so overwhelmingly GOP that lobbing it off makes the state much less friendly to the Republicans.

My thing was all about whether you could cede a small part of the state, keeping the majority in tact, and change the political affiliation. I mean, you could make California a GOP state if you got rid of every county is SoCal and the Bay Area- but it just wouldn't be California anymore.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2013, 03:50:57 pm by cope1989 »Logged

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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2013, 04:02:08 pm »
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This would make South Carolina go to Obama 51-48, about the same margin as Florida in 2008.

Nice work.

Okay, but the difference between SC and Georgia is that the area of SC you cut off actually contains a big chunk of its population. I believe a lot of Greenville/Spartanburg is in that area- the fastest growing area of the state.

My point with Georgia is that the area I cut off is really a pretty small part of the state's population, yet it is so overwhelmingly GOP that lobbing it off makes the state much less friendly to the Republicans.

My thing was all about whether you could cede a small part of the state, keeping the majority in tact, and change the political affiliation. I mean, you could make California a GOP state if you got rid of every county is SoCal and the Bay Area- but it just wouldn't be California anymore.


Fair enough, South Carolina isn't as an extreme case as Georgia.  Still, it's fun to see how many counties one needs to remove in order to change the result (this forum is the place to do that).  The South Carolina that Obama would have won still contains a majority of the state's original area and probably a solid majority (>60%) of the population, so it's not exactly Illinois or New York either.
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CTRattlesnake
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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2013, 06:31:30 pm »
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What % of the SC population lives there?
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Ernest
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2013, 06:46:56 pm »
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You can do somewhat better if you do not insist that the detached areas themselves be contiguous.  Then you can snip off Horry County at the farthest east and take in several of the other counties.  The bare minimum removal for 2008 is the eight counties of Anderson, Cherokee, Greenville, Horry, Lexington, Oconee, Pickens, and Spartanburg if you don't mind a donut hole.  If you do mind the donut hole, or want this to work for 2012 as well, remove either your choice of Aiken, the pair of Laurens and Newberry, or the triplet of Abbeville, Greenwood, and Saluda.
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2013, 07:53:55 pm »
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What % of the SC population lives there?

The red counties in the OP are about 29% of the population.
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cope1989
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« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2013, 08:32:08 pm »
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What % of the SC population lives there?

The red counties in the OP are about 29% of the population.

hmm, not as much as I thought actually.
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