US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[Oryxslayer]

Plans vetoed.

[chalmetteowl]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

[Brittain33]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

It passed with 1 D, 1 I who aren’t a lock to override.

[Torie]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

It passed with 1 D, 1 I who aren’t a lock to override.

They are from very conservative districts.

[chalmetteowl]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

I’m no expert on LA politics, but they had a supermajority and change to pass, why would it be hard to veto?

It passed with 1 D, 1 I who aren’t a lock to override.

They are from very conservative districts.

We’re just a state that wants a conservative nationally but moderate Democrats in local and state politics

[Tintrlvr]

Assuming the court isn't completely full of hacks, one has to remember even if they don't order a 2nd Black District, any natural Baton-Rouge based seat would likely be black opportunity at least and be at the very least competative if not D leaning

The only way 5-1 survives is most likely if some conservative Dems/Inds join the GOP to override Edwards which is very possible, or the court somehow finds the LA-02 snake as is reaching all the way up into Baton Rouge as the best representation of LA's electorate.

Ironically, the reddest "fair map" Baton Rouge seat would prolly be the most metro based taking in West Baton-Rouge Parish, Livingston Parish, and Ascension Parish, with 50k extra people. This district would be around Trump + 10. This is thanks to Louisiana's extreme racial polarization and the fact Livingston and Ascension are full of white suburbs and exurbs.

Huh?

A "natural" Baton Rouge seat would be similar to the Trump +10 seat you described above. Splitting the suburbs of Baton Rouge from Baton Rouge itself is clearly not natural, and that's the only way to make the seat black-opportunity or D-leaning.

It's really a question of how much you prioritize VRA.

The Trump + 10 seat may be the fairest when not considering race as a factor, but it's pretty much one of the "least black" Baton Rouge seat possible without outright splitting the black community down the middle. By connecting Black parts of Baton Rouge to rurals and smaller cities with black populations, it splits the metro but increases BVAP.

Feels sorta like the new AL-07, CA-22 or VA-04. Both seats could've been drawn to be more based around a single metro, but instead reach into rurals to increase their minority functioning ability. Why shouldn't the same precedent apply here.

If the seat won't be black majority either way, there's no legal requirement, and if there's no legal requirement it is best to respect communities of interest.

"Communities of interest" can mean all sorts of things. Surely black people in Baton Rouge have more of a community of interest with black people in Lafayette than with white people in Livingston Parish. Metro areas and county/parish lines are not the be-all, end-all of what makes a community have common interests, although they can and are relevant or even, in the absence of other countervailing considerations, determining.

Black people in Baton Rouge have more in common with white people in Livingston Parish than black people in Lafayette from a congressional redistricting standpoint.

Firmly disagree. But this in fact shows why your argument about communities of interest doesn't work: We won't agree on what communities of interest are.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1509226461550583809?s=20&t=dO1mw2nsU4o...

Veto overridden.

[lfromnj]

The vote was all R's + all 3 indies and Francis Thompson. 2 of the indies are in deep red seats but one of them is actually from a Biden +10 district that is now Biden +8 and is actually fairly liberal. IIRC he voted against the trans sports bill from the beginning and also the abortion bill.

[smoltchanov]

Thompson is a relic from the past: in Legislature since 1975, and the only Democratic state legislator in nation, who (IMHO) can be unconditionally named "a conservative" (he is extremely conservative on social issues and (somewhat less) conservative leaning on economy too). When he retires (possibly - in 2023) "conservative Democrats"will become a memory, just as "liberal Republicans" are.. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Thompson is a relic from the past: in Legislature since 1975, and the only Democratic state legislator in nation, who (IMHO) can be unconditionally named "a conservative" (he is extremely conservative on social issues and (somewhat less) conservative leaning on economy too). When he retires (possibly - in 2023) "conservative Democrats"will become a memory, just as "liberal Republicans" are.. 

Eh you still have a few in South Carolina and Alabama. Rep. Ott and Rep. Atkinson both voted for the heartbeat bill and generally err on the more conservative side. Both are dynasty heirs, taking their dad’s seat when he retired

[smoltchanov]

Thompson is a relic from the past: in Legislature since 1975, and the only Democratic state legislator in nation, who (IMHO) can be unconditionally named "a conservative" (he is extremely conservative on social issues and (somewhat less) conservative leaning on economy too). When he retires (possibly - in 2023) "conservative Democrats"will become a memory, just as "liberal Republicans" are..  

Eh you still have a few in South Carolina and Alabama. Rep. Ott and Rep. Atkinson both voted for the heartbeat bill and generally err on the more conservative side. Both are dynasty heirs, taking their dad’s seat when he retired

Yeah, but in my opinion they are more "right of center" type - generally conservative, but rather "moderate conservative"... Besides Thompson there is no one comparable with pre- (or - about) 2010 Democratic legislators, some of which were really conservative (examples: Fannin in Louisiana, Butler (who is a Republican state senator in Alabama now) in Alabama, and whole group (Browning, Stevens, White, Smith a. o.) in Mississippi)...

[chalmetteowl]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

Well I’ll be pleasantly surprised… now the R supermajority needs to show their balls on other things that matter

[smoltchanov]

One of the Dems who voted for the bill is a conservative Dem in deep Trump territory.

The other Dem seems relatively... normal black Louisiana Democrat, though his district is more rural and marginal and could easily be eliminated so my guess is it was some sort of deal with the GOP to save his district.

The 2 GOP reps who voted no is because they were upset about how their local communities were handeled, but could easily become Yea votes if needed.

The GOP should be able to (barely) override.

The LA GOP will find a way to fail… a lot of them aren’t really conservative, they’re just R because that’s what the voters want

JBE will play horse trading politics and get what he wants just barely

Well I’ll be pleasantly surprised… now the R supermajority needs to show their balls on other things that matter

Favorable redistricting is an issue that unites almost anyone in party. Other issues - not so much...