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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Louisiana  (Read 11082 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2011, 10:02:49 pm »
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I dismantled LA-06 and actually managed to make it look pretty decent, aside from LA-02, of course.



LA-02 is 66% black. LA-04 is 33% black, but that's where it is currently, so that shouldn't hurt the Republican hold on the district. LA-07 got renumbered to LA-05 (yellow).
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2011, 01:18:52 am »
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It's lovely, isn't it. Republicans have full control and still have to screw one of their own. Grin

This is also why they're talking congressional before state house... it's the controversial part.

Well, technically the same is true in Massachusetts. The difference is they have a senate race and a bunch of old people there who might retire.

I also don't think they're quite as keen on regional interests.
Yes. Democrats are also marginally more used to it... and of course, without the VRA, you might try to eliminate Richmond instead here. Heck, his district is drastically underpopulated.

Anyone tried this (a hypothetical "No VRA") scenario? It's a bit risky because LA's current Republican shift might be temporary as a result of Obama. (There were, after all, 3/7 Democrats as recently as 2008 and what looked like a good shot at getting 4/7). However, LA-01 to the north has a lot of heavily and reliably Republican suburban territory, so it might not be too hard.
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Platypus
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« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2011, 04:26:18 am »
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An attempt to:

*Create a 55% Black district that doesn't include New Orleans
*A second district that is majority-minority
*Avoid crossing Lake Pontchartrain
*Population deviation less that 75 from ideal
*Beyond the A-A non-New Orleans district, attempt to keep parish and city boundaries intact.

I was successful in all but the last category, in which I was relatively close; and in crossing the Lake (but I did it via unpopulated land, not water, so I'm giving myself that one).



Not much detail required, you get the idea.

D1 (thistle) White 75%, Black 19%
D2 (green) White 47%, Black 41%
D3 (orange) White 68%, Black 25%
D4 (yellow) White 74%, Black 20%
D5 (pink) White 67%, Black 29%
D6 (navy blue) White 41%, Black 55%
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 08:52:44 am by No aphrodisiac like Platypus »Logged

Bacon King
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2011, 04:11:56 pm »
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The conventional wisdom here seems to be that the VRA district must extend all the way to Baton Rouge. I just made one that's 53% black and only extends up to take in parts of Iberville and Ascension Parishes. I used 2009 ACS, but something like that should still end up being majority VAP black by census numbers, right?
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« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2011, 04:27:32 pm »
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The conventional wisdom here seems to be that the VRA district must extend all the way to Baton Rouge. I just made one that's 53% black and only extends up to take in parts of Iberville and Ascension Parishes. I used 2009 ACS, but something like that should still end up being majority VAP black by census numbers, right?

Probably not. The ACS ended up way overestimating New Orleans' population. The VRA seat is going to have to go into Baton Rouge.
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Platypus
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« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2011, 07:40:14 pm »
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The conventional wisdom here seems to be that the VRA district must extend all the way to Baton Rouge. I just made one that's 53% black and only extends up to take in parts of Iberville and Ascension Parishes. I used 2009 ACS, but something like that should still end up being majority VAP black by census numbers, right?

Probably not. The ACS ended up way overestimating New Orleans' population. The VRA seat is going to have to go into Baton Rouge.

But it doesn't have to go into New Orleans.

(any comments on my map?)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2011, 06:39:23 am »
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The conventional wisdom here seems to be that the VRA district must extend all the way to Baton Rouge. I just made one that's 53% black and only extends up to take in parts of Iberville and Ascension Parishes. I used 2009 ACS, but something like that should still end up being majority VAP black by census numbers, right?

Probably not. The ACS ended up way overestimating New Orleans' population. The VRA seat is going to have to go into Baton Rouge.

But it doesn't have to go into New Orleans.

(any comments on my map?)



Louisiana Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s

Been there, done that, got the court decree.



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Platypus
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« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2011, 09:02:57 am »
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Well there you go. I wonder if it would survive a challenge nowadays...
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jimrtex
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« Reply #33 on: February 14, 2011, 11:17:07 pm »
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Well there you go. I wonder if it would survive a challenge nowadays...

In the 1990's the USDOJ approved both the Mark of Zorro and the reverse back slash.  Bother were overturned by a district court.

The Supreme Court decision in between had to do with standing.  The original plaintiffs weren't in the 2nd plan.  After they got some new plaintiffs the court then reoverturned the plan.  The court then drew the final plan, which didn't need pre-clearance since it was drawn by a federal court.
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« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2011, 07:38:09 pm »
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So, in short, it depends on the composition of the court at that point in time, if it was the second proposal. If it was the first proposal, it could be rejected completely without any chance of returning.

I think?
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« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2011, 09:52:00 pm »
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So, in short, it depends on the composition of the court at that point in time, if it was the second proposal. If it was the first proposal, it could be rejected completely without any chance of returning.
The court would have to find some reason to overturn the reasoning of their earlier decision.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2011, 03:36:55 pm »
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Well, with the 2010 Census numbers added for LA, I thought I'd try and make a Louisiana map that doesn't involve going into Baton Rouge to maintain LA-02. Landry gets the shaft, since he's the freshman.

State:



Zoom of LA-02 and surrounding area:



LA-01 (blue, Steve Scalise - R) - Created a district that encircles Lake Pontchartrain. Extremely safe for Stivers.
LA-02 (green, Cedric Richmond - D) - Okay, so this one stretches from New Orleans to Lafayette. It's 59.3% black, with a 56.5% black VAP. It also has the advantage of cutting right through Jeff Landry's home of New Iberia. Boustany lives in Lafayette, but probably not in the heavily-black portions (just guessing).
LA-03 (purple, Charles Boustany - R) - Boustany gets nearly all of his old district plus part of Landry's. He'd be a prohibitive favorite if Landry were to run here.
LA-04 (red, John Fleming - R) - This one pulls in a few new parishes, and loses one (Grant). 60.6% white, 32.9% black, but the VAP is 63.0% and 31.3%, respectively.
LA-05 (yellow, Rodney Alexander - R) - Stretches southeast to take in parts of LA-06 and the former LA-03. 62.6% white, 33.2% black, with a VAP of 65.0% and 31.3%.
LA-06 (teal, Bill Cassidy - R) - Pulls in some parts of LA-01, loses some areas around Baton Rouge. 60.5% white, 32.5% black, with VAP of 63.2% and 30.3%.

The danger here, of course, is if Republicans stop getting 75% of the white vote. Anything below that and they start to have problems.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2011, 03:56:40 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2011, 03:42:52 pm »
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Apart from not seeing why going into Lafayette should be preferrable to going into Baton Rouge... if such a map were to be drawn you certainly should shift a lot of territory counterclockwise around the 2nd.
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« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2011, 09:33:58 am »
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Couldn't the state of Louisiana just argue that the African American populations of Baton Rouge and New Orleans are two discrete and distinct population groups, geographically distant enough that the Gingles test wouldn't apply for creating a minority district in the area? They could initiate preclearance with the DC District Court rather than waiting for Eric Holder's move, and cite Miller v. Johnson and such for the three judge panel.

Then the legislature could just put all of the NOLA metro neatly into a single district that would put Richmond in a tough fight against Scalise. That would also let the Baton Rouge district take in some GOP-heavy North Shore territory from the current 1st district to shore up Cassidy. All six Republican Congressmen keeping their seats sounds great for them, no?
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« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2011, 09:40:14 am »
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Couldn't the state of Louisiana just argue that the African American populations of Baton Rouge and New Orleans are two discrete and distinct population groups
At which the first judge they not picked specifically for the purpose by them laughs so hard that the state is blown right into Lake Maracaibo, right?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2011, 09:48:35 am »
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Couldn't the state of Louisiana just argue that the African American populations of Baton Rouge and New Orleans are two discrete and distinct population groups, geographically distant enough that the Gingles test wouldn't apply for creating a minority district in the area? They could initiate preclearance with the DC District Court rather than waiting for Eric Holder's move, and cite Miller v. Johnson and such for the three judge panel.

Then the legislature could just put all of the NOLA metro neatly into a single district that would put Richmond in a tough fight against Scalise. That would also let the Baton Rouge district take in some GOP-heavy North Shore territory from the current 1st district to shore up Cassidy. All six Republican Congressmen keeping their seats sounds great for them, no?


I can't see Scalise willingly bumping his district up to 35% black or so.

What you could do is make sure you hit only 50.000001% VAP and pair New Orleans with, say, Livingston parish for Joseph Cao to make a comeback. But I highly doubt they do it.
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« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2011, 10:37:05 am »
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What you could do is make sure you hit only 50.000001% VAP and pair New Orleans with, say, Livingston parish for Joseph Cao to make a comeback. But I highly doubt they do it.

I would guess that New Orleans includes some of the only liberal non-minority neighborhoods in the state which would make a non-corrupt Democrat viable even at that level.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2011, 10:46:53 am »
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What you could do is make sure you hit only 50.000001% VAP and pair New Orleans with, say, Livingston parish for Joseph Cao to make a comeback. But I highly doubt they do it.

I would guess that New Orleans includes some of the only liberal non-minority neighborhoods in the state which would make a non-corrupt Democrat viable even at that level.

That seems to be the case, given how Orleans Parish voted 77% Kerry and 79% Obama, and New Orleans is something like 65% black or so. Might be less now.

You would have to gerrymander liberal whites out into Scalise's district.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #43 on: February 21, 2011, 10:49:32 am »
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Couldn't the state of Louisiana just argue that the African American populations of Baton Rouge and New Orleans are two discrete and distinct population groups
At which the first judge they not picked specifically for the purpose by them laughs so hard that the state is blown right into Lake Maracaibo, right?

Well, most likely, yeah, but it doesn't mean that the blind opportunists populating the Louisiana state government wouldn't try to do it anyway. Tongue

Especially considering the local unpopularity of a BR-NO district (among NOLA whites, anyway), the legal history of previous districts in the state that connected black cities with narrow strands, and the fact that Anthony Kennedy wrote the majority opinion in some arguably relevant case law. IMO there's just enough of an impetus here that I could see 'em actually trying to do it.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #44 on: February 21, 2011, 10:55:23 am »
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What you could do is make sure you hit only 50.000001% VAP and pair New Orleans with, say, Livingston parish for Joseph Cao to make a comeback. But I highly doubt they do it.

I would guess that New Orleans includes some of the only liberal non-minority neighborhoods in the state which would make a non-corrupt Democrat viable even at that level.

That seems to be the case, given how Orleans Parish voted 77% Kerry and 79% Obama, and New Orleans is something like 65% black or so. Might be less now.

You would have to gerrymander liberal whites out into Scalise's district.

Yes, New Orleans has plenty of liberal whites, probably the only in the state.

As a vague/general rule of thumb if you're going to be trying a map of this, you can assume the only Orleans Parish whites that will vote reliably Republican are those living directly west of City Park (the really big north-central precinct in the redistricting app).

That's just a generalization of course but if I start going on about the exceptions I'll probably end up writing an essay. Tongue
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« Reply #45 on: February 23, 2011, 03:34:09 pm »
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This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

The problem is that the sixth is actually majoritarian in that 4th. Meaning that Rodney Alexander won't be happy at all.

So, apart from amending for the changes between estimates and census results, this map attempts to rectify that and give the north a plurality vs suburban BR and suburban NOLA...



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« Reply #46 on: February 23, 2011, 05:25:38 pm »
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This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

The problem is that the sixth is actually majoritarian in that 4th. Meaning that Rodney Alexander won't be happy at all.

So, apart from amending for the changes between estimates and census results, this map attempts to rectify that and give the north a plurality vs suburban BR and suburban NOLA...




It seems like there are a lot of extra county splits.  In the current map it appears that there was an effort to reduce splits.  You have two counties split between salmon and turquoise, and turquoise and purple.  Since the yellow district will split counties, there is no reason to split a county between salmon and yellow.  I'd try to keep Rapides in one district (turquoise) and bring the Salmon district further south along the border (you've probably split Fort Polk between districts also).  And then eliminate the three-way splits of Saint. James, Saint John the Baptist, and Saint Charles.  The split of Jefferson is unavoidable.

But I'm not sure that I'd worry about Alexander.  And in any case, if comes down to a regional race, Monroe will vote more provincially than Baton Rouge, and rural areas even more so.
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« Reply #47 on: February 24, 2011, 03:23:17 am »
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Yeah, I know I have a lot of county splits that just looked prettier. Smiley

Putting Alexandria in teal (where it doesn't belong from a "regional" perspective) probably does make sense for the GOP - that red district is getting awfully black otherwise.

They're two centres of population in Vernon Parish, one right by Fort Polk, the other Leesville, and I ran the boundary between them. I suppose their economies are tied to each other and they're better off left together, though...

What's Cassidy going to do after his district is dismantled? If the 4th is really a majorly redrawn 6th, I don't see why he wouldn't run there.
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« Reply #48 on: February 24, 2011, 04:58:32 am »
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But alright. Cassidy Alexander fight set up again; minimal number of county splits not counting those with Richmond. Not three-way-cutting St Charles means wasting some perfectly good suburban Republicans on Richmond, though. Vermilion was transferred cause otherwise (with boundaries elsewhere as is) the St Landry split goes right through Eunice. I didn't actually keep Rapides in one piece, though - better that than Calcasieu, and if you use Allen you need almost (but not quite) the entire parish making Boustany's connection to Alexandria quite erose.





All districts within 100 of optimum.

The fourth is still just 59.9% White, but Fort Polk is bound to have more Republican Whites - and more Republican / nonvoting minorities - than Alexandria, so I suppose it'll be alright.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2011, 05:03:39 am »
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Just noticed that I still technically have a three-way split of Orleans with that outermost Algiers precinct. Easily remedied, though - the precinct just west of those two easternmost Jefferson Landry precincts is almost exactly the same size and plurality White.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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