US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[jimrtex]

But alright. Cassidy Alexander fight set up again; minimal number of county splits not counting those with Richmond. Not three-way-cutting St Charles means wasting some perfectly good suburban Republicans on Richmond, though. Vermilion was transferred cause otherwise (with boundaries elsewhere as is) the St Landry split goes right through Eunice. I didn't actually keep Rapides in one piece, though - better that than Calcasieu, and if you use Allen you need almost (but not quite) the entire parish making Boustany's connection to Alexandria quite erose.





All districts within 100 of optimum.

The fourth is still just 59.9% White, but Fort Polk is bound to have more Republican Whites - and more Republican / nonvoting minorities - than Alexandria, so I suppose it'll be alright.

If you look at the current map without county lines visible, it almost appears as if there are bunches of county cuts, because the shape of the counties is irregular.

[muon2]

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

[Torie]

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.

[muon2]

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.

The old idea of LA-2 entirely within the SE corner clearly can't happen anymore. Most other maps posted link NOLA to either Baton Rouge or perhaps to Lafayette. I could argue that this version of LA-2 would keep it entirely in the traditional Cajun parishes near NOLA, and is no worse than the long river link up to Baton Rouge.

[Torie]

It would be hard to argue I suspect to argue that your LA-02 Muon2 ties together communities of interest. I would think the DOJ would be embarrassed to push for such a thing. But that does not mean that they won't. But I suspect SCOTUS will blow the DOJ away on this one if it goes there.

The old idea of LA-2 entirely within the SE corner clearly can't happen anymore. Most other maps posted link NOLA to either Baton Rouge or perhaps to Lafayette. I could argue that this version of LA-2 would keep it entirely in the traditional Cajun parishes near NOLA, and is no worse than the long river link up to Baton Rouge.

Yes, but does the VRA require it?

[Sam Spade]

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.

[muon2]

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.

So, how does the court handle a jungle primary with the requirement that the minority has the opportunity to elect a candidate of choice? The court has removed the threat of challenges for maps that provide rough proportionality for such opportunities, the lack of an available district that has a majority of the VAP for a single minority, or the lack of different voting behavior between the minority and the white majority. The court has held that a district need not guarantee the specific minority success - note that Cao won in LA-2. If a minority thwarts itself in an open primary by running multiple candidates, isn't that still an opportunity even if missed?

[Sam Spade]

You're playing with a lot of fire there, in that this map creates a decent possibility of a 6-0 GOP LA delegation (especially if Obama is reelected), since come 2012, we go back to the old system of jungle primary night on election day and runoff afterwards.

So, how does the court handle a jungle primary with the requirement that the minority has the opportunity to elect a candidate of choice? The court has removed the threat of challenges for maps that provide rough proportionality for such opportunities, the lack of an available district that has a majority of the VAP for a single minority, or the lack of different voting behavior between the minority and the white majority. The court has held that a district need not guarantee the specific minority success - note that Cao won in LA-2. If a minority thwarts itself in an open primary by running multiple candidates, isn't that still an opportunity even if missed?

You seem to think that the DoJ will play hardball at every point, which is not that ridiculous of an assumption given who runs things.  So there.

However, one wonders whether they would push hard on weak cases, thus giving the USSC greater leeway to strike them down and deliver bad precedent.  After all, 32% is not 33%, last time I checked.  And last term, USSC indicated that section 5 preclearance is not long for this world.  Moreover, the "big" court has not exactly indicated hard and fast rules for everything (if much of anything), and has not exactly been inclined to strike down districts that made it past lower levels.

[krazen1211]

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

CD-6 there looks even more problematic than  CD-2.

[muon2]

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

CD-6 there looks even more problematic than  CD-2.

I'm not sure why it would be problematic. Other intentional VRA districts are often as badly shaped, and in NC one can argue that they are worse than my example here.

[jimrtex]

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

CD-6 there looks even more problematic than  CD-2.

I'm not sure why it would be problematic. Other intentional VRA districts are often as badly shaped, and in NC one can argue that they are worse than my example here.

If you were to shift Plaquemines and St.Bernard, New Orleans Easr, French Quarter, and Garden District to CD-3, could you push CD-3 out of Baton Rouge?  You can come in along the river from Chalmette.

Or go ahead and take Jefferson Parish by using Lake Pontchartrain.

[muon2]

Since LA has a 32% black population, I wonder if the DOJ will want to see roughly 1/3 of the CDs drawn with a black majority? I drew a hypothetical map that achieves that result. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. CD 2 goes from New Orleans to Houma district with 51.4% black VAP. CD 6 takes in Baton Rouge, Alexandria, and Lafayette with 50.6% black VAP. CD 3 ends up wrapping from east of Baton Rouge to the southern suburbs of New Orleans. The Shreveport area parishes are split to avoid a district that runs from Monroe to Lake Charles.

CD-6 there looks even more problematic than  CD-2.

I'm not sure why it would be problematic. Other intentional VRA districts are often as badly shaped, and in NC one can argue that they are worse than my example here.

If you were to shift Plaquemines and St.Bernard, New Orleans Easr, French Quarter, and Garden District to CD-3, could you push CD-3 out of Baton Rouge?  You can come in along the river from Chalmette.

Or go ahead and take Jefferson Parish by using Lake Pontchartrain.

I tried a number of combinations to get CD-3 out of Baton Rouge. I did look at moving CD-3 up to US 61 and picking up the French Quarter, etc. as you suggest. However, it wasn't enough population to push CD-1 all the way across to the Mississippi. I hadn't considered leaping across the lake to connect CD-2, since the maps I saw connected across only at the Causeway.

[krazen1211]

I'm not sure why it would be problematic. Other intentional VRA districts are often as badly shaped, and in NC one can argue that they are worse than my example here.

Mostly because I don't expect any court to actually require that, and I don't expect newly empowered LA Republicans to roll over for the Justice department.

[Bacon King]

Update here.

Special Legislative session to handle redistricting is starting in 8 days. The proposed deadline to submit everything for preclearance is May 2nd. Fun fact: Louisiana has never qualified preclearance on the first try before! This can be a problem- state legislature's districts have to be finalized by the end of August for the 2011 elections.

Looking pretty clear that two districts will remain in the north while the lost district will be one of the coastal ones; Boustany's already gearing up to fight a primary against Landry (even holding events in what's still the latter's district). Traditionally, the US House delegation submits it's own redistricting proposal for the state legislature to consider; everyone except Landry agreed on the principle of mostly gutting Landry's district but changing the others as little as possible.

Also, the Louisiana legislative Black Caucus has hired a consultant to draw a map with two majority-black districts.

[Sam Spade]

Also, the Louisiana legislative Black Caucus has hired a consultant to draw a map with two majority-black districts.

Instead of hiring a consultant, they should just have talked to muon2.

[muon2]

Also, the Louisiana legislative Black Caucus has hired a consultant to draw a map with two majority-black districts.

Instead of hiring a consultant, they should just have talked to muon2.

And I could give a cleaner looking map with 2 majority-black districts if I had data at the block level.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Hey, look, it's our first officially-proposed maps:

http://www.2theadvocate.com/blogs/politicsblog/118209134.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Senate passed this map which puts Landry in Boustany's district and gives LA-04 about a 40% black VAP.

[krazen1211]

One has to wonder how on earth this can be that difficult. Jindal I hope would veto any map like the Senate one.

[Bacon King]

This was the two-district black map plan. It stretched the 2nd District from New Orleans to Lafayette (56.6% black registered voters) and the 5th district from Baton Rouge to Monroe (51.8% black registered voters). Didn't make it out of committee in the House because of universal Republican opposition: the map chopped up every Congressman's political base except Boustany, put Alexander and Fleming in the same seat, cut Landry's hometown between the districts of Boustany, Scalise, and Richmond, and I think forced Bill Cassidy to move, too.

One has to wonder how on earth this can be that difficult. Jindal I hope would veto any map like the Senate one.

A Jindal spokesman has said that the governor disagrees with a horizontal "I-20 district" that covers the north of the state and puts Shrevport and Monroe into the same district, so yeah, I'm not really sure what the Senate is doing passing that map.

[cinyc]

Other than eliminating an incumbent (which has to be done somewhere and the incumbent lost under this plan isn't in the North, anyway), why is putting Monroe and Shreveport in the same district so controversial?

[Bacon King]

This ugly map has been the most popular with the House redistricting committee (passing fifteen to five). It keeps two vertical districts in the north, keeps Boustany's district nice and compact, makes the 2nd district 61.6% black (registered voters) with a New Orleans-Baton Rouge connection (that's actually kind of tidily designed coming out of New Orleans but then becomes only a single precinct wide on the outskirts of Baton Rouge). The 1st district covers most of both shores of Lake Ponchartrain but then cuts across Lake Borgne (no connection of any sort exists there) to cover the eastern bayou as well. Most strangely, the 5th district comes south to the northern edge of Baton Rouge then cuts across to the east in a two precinct-wide line between the 6th district and the state line to the north, as if for some reason it had to include as much of the Mississippi border as possible. I don't know why they did that.

Other than eliminating an incumbent (which has to be done somewhere), why is putting Monroe and Shreveport in the same district so controversial?

Well, first off, neither Alexander nor Fleming want to run against each other at all, while Boustany has no problem running against Landry if given favorable conditions. Also, nobody wants to mess with Alexander because he's the only member of the delegation on the Appropriations Committee. Besides that, though, there's a pretty strong community of interest argument- the northwest has several big army bases and Fleming's on the Armed Services Committee, while the northeast is mostly farmland. There's also a tradition argument because both districts have been historically shaped that way, with the two cities serving as the centers of two separate districts.

[cinyc]

The 1st district covers most of both shores of Lake Ponchartrain but then cuts across Lake Borgne (no connection of any sort exists there) to cover the eastern bayou as well.

If you wanted to create a road connection, LA-01 would have to pick up the two eastmost New Orleans precincts, 9-45 and 9-45A.   They have about 1,000 residents between them and are majority non-Hispanic white.  But former Congressman Cao lives in one of those precincts in the Venetian Isles neighborhood.  Perhaps they didn't want to draw him out of the New Orleans district or into a Republican district where he might challenge the party's man.

[krazen1211]

This ugly map has
Well, first off, neither Alexander nor Fleming want to run against each other at all, while Boustany has no problem running against Landry if given favorable conditions. Also, nobody wants to mess with Alexander because he's the only member of the delegation on the Appropriations Committee. Besides that, though, there's a pretty strong community of interest argument- the northwest has several big army bases and Fleming's on the Armed Services Committee, while the northeast is mostly farmland. There's also a tradition argument because both districts have been historically shaped that way, with the two cities serving as the centers of two separate districts.

The other issue is that Monroe and Shreveport combined have too many blacks to become a safe R district.

[Miles]

I did this map for kicks and grins more than anything else.

My goals were:
-Create a super-packed VRA district with >75% minority
-Create 2 horizontal districts in the north
-Have 1 district span almost the entire coastine
-Split as few parishes as possible.



This is a closer look at the VRA district. Its 76% minority with 24% white. Note the deviation of zero; I know these numbers are older, but I thought that was pretty cool.