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| | |-+  US House Redistricting: Louisiana
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Louisiana  (Read 11496 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #75 on: April 09, 2011, 07:23:20 pm »
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http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/04/5_louisiana_congressmen_call_f.html

With just days remaining in the Legislature's post-census redistricting session, five members of Louisiana's congressional delegation are calling for state lawmakers to postpone drawing new U.S. House districts.



Bottom line: Boustany is being a huge d-bag and trying to sink Fleming as well as Landry. Rest of the GOP delegation is pissed.
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Miles
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« Reply #76 on: April 10, 2011, 10:31:55 pm »
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Boustany already has a Safe R district and even with redistricting , he'd be in pretty good shape anyway.

Oh well, I'll have more time to work on a plan. I have relations on the Legislature's Redistricting Committee. I've been wanting to send in a plan...
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Bacon King
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« Reply #77 on: April 11, 2011, 02:48:40 pm »
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HB 1 (which redistricts state House seats) and SB 1 (which redistricts the Senate) have both passed the the opposite chambers today without amendment, meaning all that's left now is for their originating chambers to send them to the governor.

The U.S. Congressional districts are the only thing still left to consider.
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« Reply #78 on: April 11, 2011, 07:12:27 pm »
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The Senate passed this map today:

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« Reply #79 on: April 11, 2011, 07:35:15 pm »
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The Senate passed this map today:



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Miles
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« Reply #80 on: April 11, 2011, 08:09:09 pm »
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Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #81 on: April 11, 2011, 08:11:04 pm »
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Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

4th and 5th you mean? I can't imagine the Baton Rouge district being competitive anymore now that the black population was removed.
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« Reply #82 on: April 11, 2011, 08:12:40 pm »
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Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

Really?  Because I'd think the 4th is the Democrat's best pickup opportunity, given that its probably ~40% black.  Both the 5th and 6th cover fairly Conservative white territory.
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« Reply #83 on: April 11, 2011, 08:22:05 pm »
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Not bad.

I could see the 5th and 6th being competitive with the right wave.

Really?  Because I'd think the 4th is the Democrat's best pickup opportunity, given that its probably ~40% black.  Both the 5th and 6th cover fairly Conservative white territory.

So, the gamble is going to be - let's create a district where there are so many blacks that only a black Dem will be nominated in a open seat jungle general election, and then said black Dem will get f-ed in the runoff.  Seems to me a little dangerous, but LA GOP must still be afraid of the white Dem and not afraid off the black Dem (which is not that unreasonable).  Of course, as long as there is a GOP incumbent, there won't be any problem until the wave, and maybe the silly jungle primary will be effective there to.  I'd still spread the blacks out, but that's a choice...

This makes the three other GOP CDs really safe though and Boustany will not lose that CD while he's around (so I guess he's planning on being around).
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Miles
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« Reply #84 on: April 11, 2011, 08:30:50 pm »
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Yeah, I meant the 4th.
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Meeker
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« Reply #85 on: April 13, 2011, 03:43:06 pm »
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This map just passed both chambers and Jindal is expected to sign it:


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krazen1211
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« Reply #86 on: April 13, 2011, 04:24:50 pm »
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Looks pretty solid. LA-05 is 62% white/36% black, but not that big an issue.
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« Reply #87 on: April 13, 2011, 04:26:56 pm »
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« Reply #88 on: April 13, 2011, 04:42:43 pm »
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This is the actual map

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Miles
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« Reply #89 on: April 13, 2011, 05:35:39 pm »
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The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.
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« Reply #90 on: April 13, 2011, 10:48:12 pm »
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The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.

The southern tip of Concordia Parish comes just south of 31 degrees north (the boundary between Mississippi and Louisiana) and touches West Feliciana.  There is also a loop at Old River which is part of West Feliciana, but not contiguous to the main part.  No roads in the area, but you can come across at Natchez to get to Baton Rouge.
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Meeker
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« Reply #91 on: April 14, 2011, 12:07:46 am »
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That second map is the correct one; the blog I got mine from updated a few hours later.

The 4th is 35% Black and the 5th is 36%.
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Miles
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« Reply #92 on: April 14, 2011, 12:08:16 am »
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The 5th looks like it almost has touch-point contiguity.

The southern tip of Concordia Parish comes just south of 31 degrees north (the boundary between Mississippi and Louisiana) and touches West Feliciana.  There is also a loop at Old River which is part of West Feliciana, but not contiguous to the main part.  No roads in the area, but you can come across at Natchez to get to Baton Rouge.
It still looks pretty awkward though.

The 6th looks like it cuts the 5th into 2 pieces.
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« Reply #93 on: April 17, 2011, 08:24:23 am »
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So they screwed Landry and gave Scalise some nasty Cajuns to deal with. Which is pretty much what it takes to save Cassidy. They must like Cassidy.
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« Reply #94 on: April 18, 2011, 12:45:25 pm »
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So they screwed Landry and gave Scalise some nasty Cajuns to deal with. Which is pretty much what it takes to save Cassidy. They must like Cassidy.

The only representatives they really like are Boustany and Alexander, hence why their respective districts changed so little. Keeping Boustany comfortable is what forced them to screw over Landry (which was inevitably going to happen from the start). Boustany's district is also what forces the 1st District to pick up the rest of cajun country. Scalise may have dislike his new district but he should be comfortable because his base in East Jefferson will always outvote the bayou. I don't think the map really gives Cassidy any sort of preferential treatment in particular, especially considering that he has to deal with +50,000 angry cajuns as well (note how Houma's basically split in half).
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« Reply #95 on: April 18, 2011, 01:57:24 pm »
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Wow, that's right. They really screwed over the eastern part of Cajun country.
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« Reply #96 on: April 19, 2011, 12:45:25 pm »
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SSP has the Presidential numbers for the new districts:

LA-01 - 72.7 McCain, 25.3 Obama
LA-02 - 73.4 Obama, 25.4 McCain
LA-03 - 64.3 McCain, 34.1 Obama
LA-04 - 58.9 McCain, 39.9 Obama
LA-05 - 62.0 McCain, 36.7 Obama
LA-06 - 67.5 McCain, 30.9 Obama
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krazen1211
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« Reply #97 on: August 01, 2011, 08:58:48 pm »
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Congressional map precleared.
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Miles
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« Reply #98 on: August 01, 2011, 11:54:49 pm »
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They could have forced another VRA seat....
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« Reply #99 on: August 05, 2011, 03:18:37 pm »
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They have the racial breakdown (which is a fairly close voter proxy in Louisiana) but does anyone know where I could get ready information on the actual vote of the 2008 election within these new districts (I'm new at this)?  I'd like to know how safe the Republican districts would be in another Democratic blowout election.
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