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Lewis Trondheim
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« on: January 09, 2011, 05:58:33 am »
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A thread we need to see.

I'll start with a fantasy map. CDs 4, 5, and 6 essentially preserved (4 taking some parishes from 5, 5 and 6 expanding southward), 1 cleaned up with complete disregard to race but respect to political boundaries, 3 distributed between the cleaned-up 2 and 7, which is renumbered 3.
One half of it is actually sort of likely, the other half is utterly impossible - CD3 is 49% White and 41% Black.



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2011, 07:22:29 am »
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So I failed to draw a satisfactorily Black version of this CD2... I would at the very least have had to nudge into Baton Rouge. More reasonable to go the whole hog and do a completely racial split of BR. CD2 is 61% Black.
This required major counterclockwise shifts of territory. Lake Charles will probably have me hunted down & killed as a warning to real life redistricters.
Though this is actually a very clean map - except for the splits involving CD2, there are only three parish splits (Avoyelles and St Landry, and you could avoid one of those but it just looks buttt-ugly; and Jeff Davis). The western CD is composed wholly of entire parishes. Orleans is still a whole lot cleaner than the current map - but that's partly because it's a whole lot cleaner than Baton Rouge.
Populations are within 1000... and if you move that outermost Algiers precinct to the Cajun CD (it's white and just the right size, but it would be the only New Orleans precinct in there) you're within 400 and all but one district (yellow) within 150.








« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 07:27:10 am by Baffone »Logged

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2011, 10:18:47 am »
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It looks like Jeff Landry would be happy with that map; the new LA-03 would probably favor him over Charles Boustany.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2011, 10:54:54 am »
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It looks like Jeff Landry would be happy with that map; the new LA-03 would probably favor him over Charles Boustany.

It seems like the way to ensure Landry takes the hit is to wrap CD-1 down the coast so that CD-1 takes St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes.

I just don't know if they do that.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2011, 08:03:22 am »
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It looks like Jeff Landry would be happy with that map; the new LA-03 would probably favor him over Charles Boustany.

It seems like the way to ensure Landry takes the hit is to wrap CD-1 down the coast so that CD-1 takes St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes.

I just don't know if they do that.

Here's the Jeff Landry hit map.





CD-1 took most of Lafourche as well because the only reasonable alternative to that was to split Lafayette. New Orleans not quite as cleaned as in the last go; Baton Rouge and the corridor (which is majority Black even in this incarnation) a little cleaner.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2011, 09:43:48 am »
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I think you may have to take apart CD 6 in order to keep two Cajun districts.

If you do that, the other districts are short (based on 2009 ACS):

CD 4 -97K; CD 5 -112K, total 209K

CD 7 -85K; CD 3 -119K; total 204K

CD 1 -64K; CD 2 -238K; total 302K

Then take CD 2 across Lake Pontchartrain before dropping down onto the Mississippi, but don't go all the way to Baton Rouge so as to leave a gap for CD 5 and CD 3.  Then go north around Hammond pick up the black areas of Hammond, go west (and maybe east) along the Mississippi border, and then come down into Baton Rouge from the north.  You could also go up the Mississippi, perhaps taking whole parishes.

Bring CD 1 to include St Bernard (and New Orleans East, and connect to Jefferson through the current doohickey that comes from Jefferson down to almost Chalmette (the route across Lake Ponchartrain will be blocked).   Then bring CD 3 around the western tip of the part of CD 2 that goes up the Mississippi, and do the same for CD 5.

Perhaps move CD 7 northward a bit as well, which would end up with CD 5 then taking more in the Baton Rouge area.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2011, 10:13:31 am »
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Not sure what you mean. You certainly don't want to take CD2 to the north shore of Pontchartrain. That's lilywhite posh uberrepublican suburbia there. Also, there are some black suburban areas in southern (populated) Jefferson - south of that weird spike - that you won't want to let go.
Shedding Cassidy's CD6 and letting Landry and Boustany live is probably a workable idea, actually... but only if CD2 is taken into Baton Rouge, as that's pretty much starting the dismemberment already. Then you take CDs4 and 5 east, CD7 north, CD1 west, and CD3 wherever turns out to fit best. I may try that next.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2011, 11:48:51 am »
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I'm calling it the Rape of Baton Rouge.





This incarnation of CD2 is 58% Black. I suppose combining the dismantle CD6 idea with the CD1 Eastern Prong idea (from the previous attempt and Jim's suggestion) and connecting New Orleans to St Helena via a string of precincts in western Tangipahoa rather than western Livingston may actually come out minimally less disgusting. Either way though, it has no chance of happening.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2011, 12:23:57 pm »
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Yes, definitely better. And yes, definitely still horrid. Also, back up to 61% Black -  western Tangipahoa (rural parts as well as Hammond) has surprising numbers of Black population. Well, surpising to me, anyhow.



Also, in the preceding map technically you couldn't drive from Baton Rouge to the southern parts of CD3 - in both versions the district has the only bridge between Baton Rouge and just above  Laplace - it's just below Donaldsonville, in heavily Afro-American territory. Those two westernmost St James Parish precincts face each other across it. But in the first map the precinct just north of it, which you'd also need to drive from a to b, was in CD2.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2011, 10:47:10 am »
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So... seeing as dismantling CD6 is just plain ugly... two other ways to preserve two Cajun districts.

Version 1: Steve Scalise's district is packed with Republicans. Share the wealth!







The issue is that it is far from certain that the Cajun part of Landry's district can dominate it, especially as Landry is from New Iberia and Scalise also lives in the district. Worse, with Cajun registration patterns, they might lose the primary and then win the GE with a Melancon revenant as Democratic candidate.

Version 2: That leaves northern Louisiana. Randy Alexander was a Democrat once after all. Can he really be trusted?



The issue here is with district safety in a Democratic waveyear, rather than regionalism. The district at risk being... somewhat surprisingly... the northwestern one, which is down to just 59% White. Probably could be helped a little with more creative boundaries, though.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2011, 03:46:10 am »
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I think Iberville and Pointe Coupee go in the Cajun district.  Will that pull the purple district out of St. Tammany?   Maybe toss in West Baton Rouge for some more population.

It is interesting that the reported percentage of French Ancestry vs French Canadian ancestry has a pretty strong east/west variation, with French Canadian stronger in the west (of Lafayette) vs the east, though French is more common throughout.

About blacks in Tangipahoa, Blacks are about 35% of the current 3 northern districts, and the mid to high 20s in the other districts except the two NOLA districts where they have been deliberately separated.  On that basis, the mark of Zorro district makes sense.  Blacks are too well distributed, vs states like Mississippi or South Carolina.

Are you counting St.Martin as a county split?

So... seeing as dismantling CD6 is just plain ugly... two other ways to preserve two Cajun districts.

Version 1: Steve Scalise's district is packed with Republicans. Share the wealth!







The issue is that it is far from certain that the Cajun part of Landry's district can dominate it, especially as Landry is from New Iberia and Scalise also lives in the district. Worse, with Cajun registration patterns, they might lose the primary and then win the GE with a Melancon revenant as Democratic candidate.

Version 2: That leaves northern Louisiana. Randy Alexander was a Democrat once after all. Can he really be trusted?



The issue here is with district safety in a Democratic waveyear, rather than regionalism. The district at risk being... somewhat surprisingly... the northwestern one, which is down to just 59% White. Probably could be helped a little with more creative boundaries, though.


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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2011, 05:11:04 am »
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Is there a legal requirement to keep county splits low? I'm mostly just avoiding them to a large extent as a matter of personal preference.

Yes, adding Iberville and Pointe Coupee - and Avoyelles, too - to a Cajun seat makes sense.  Splits the state in two, though, leaving too little territory for two seats and far too much for one to the north (considering Lake Charles as non-negotiable). Could probably tweak it by splitting Pointe Coupee. Might try such a map. Wouldn't be enough to get Landry out of North Jefferson and St Tammany though, and yes, given the nature of northern Jefferson I consider the Causeway link indispensable, and the Z clearly inferior and more disruptive - unnatural -  than the Mississippi river link.
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2011, 10:44:54 am »
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Gallot said some coastal legislators are proposing the design of a coastal congressional district that would stretch across the bottom of the state, arguing the parishes have many issues in common, such as hurricane protection and coastal erosion. Currently, two congressional districts contain coastal parishes.

Other lawmakers are arguing to merge north Louisiana parishes -- which are split between two congressional districts -- into one district that contains both Monroe and Shreveport. The chairman of the Senate redistricting committee, Sen. Bob Kostelka, R-Monroe, has said he objects to such a plan, however.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_Redistricting2011/NewsPDF/1221_10_Gallot_PressClub.pdf

Gallot said something similar to today’s majority black PSC district that runs from New Orleans to
north Baton Rouge, including communities near the Mississippi River, “certainly is a reasonable
footprint to look at.”
Gallot said two north Louisiana-based congressional districts could undergo substantial changes.
The Shreveport-based 4th Congressional District would have to extend to the Gulf of Mexico to pick
up needed population, Gallot said. And, he said, the Monroe-based 5th District would expand to
Plaquemines Parish instead of just to outside Baton Rouge.


I'll have to try to draw that first plan later today. That would effectively combine Boustany and Landry, but the populations of all those southern coastal parishes seem to add up to too much.





If powerful people are keeping both northern districts, and of course Lafayette/Lake Charles together, well, the only district that seems to be left to chop is Cassidy's 6th.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2011, 03:29:30 am »
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Gallot said some coastal legislators are proposing the design of a coastal congressional district that would stretch across the bottom of the state, arguing the parishes have many issues in common, such as hurricane protection and coastal erosion. Currently, two congressional districts contain coastal parishes.
You could probably draw this a couple of ways.  Start out with Lake Charles and Lafayette and then swing down fairly south towards Houma and the bird foot delta.  This opens the Mississippi for CD-2 to get to Baton Rouge.

Thicker in the east, and and narrow in the west, so mostly preserves CD-3, plus Lafayette.  Maybe hard to include Lake Charles, and blocks CD-2.

Other lawmakers are arguing to merge north Louisiana parishes -- which are split between two congressional districts -- into one district that contains both Monroe and Shreveport. The chairman of the Senate redistricting committee, Sen. Bob Kostelka, R-Monroe, has said he objects to such a plan, however.
This is going to be the sticking point.  The north says they get two districts, which means the Cajuns will want two districts.  The blacks have to have a district, which means that there is also a district for the people that aren't black.  So CD-6 is the odd-man out.

If it for feelings being hurt, this might work.  I'm guessing a merged district ends up north of Alexandria.  Which opens a number of possibilities such as a CD-7 becoming a Lake Charles-Alexandria district, with Lafayette shifting to CD-3.

Or perhaps CD-3 takes all of the Atchafalaya basis and extends up to Alexandria.

Or maybe CD-6 extends to Alexandria to make up for the loss of north Baton Rouge.

It is kind of surprising they are talking congressional redistricting.  They need to get legislative redistricting done for this fall.  But because of the open primary for congressional elections is in November 2012, they have until Summer 2012 to finish.  And since they serve 4 year terms, they wouldn't have to worry about the political fallout.

Gallot said two north Louisiana-based congressional districts could undergo substantial changes.  The Shreveport-based 4th Congressional District would have to extend to the Gulf of Mexico to pick up needed population, Gallot said. And, he said, the Monroe-based 5th District would expand to Plaquemines Parish instead of just to outside Baton Rouge.
I assume the latter was a bit of hyperbole.

Shreveport-Lake Charles means that Boustany and Landry end up running against each other, but that you go from 2 not so certain Republican seats to one.

If powerful people are keeping both northern districts, and of course Lafayette/Lake Charles together, well, the only district that seems to be left to chop is Cassidy's 6th.
There is a pretty strong rivalry between north and south Louisiana, so I could see this one ending up deadlocked.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2011, 08:08:38 am »
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It's lovely, isn't it. Republicans have full control and still have to screw one of their own. Grin

This is also why they're talking congressional before state house... it's the controversial part.
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« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2011, 09:09:18 am »
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This was my first shot at it.

The problem is you end up over population. You either don't cover the full coast, or you have to split either Calcasieu or Lafayette. Plus I didn't cover St Bernard or all the population in Jefferson that probably should be covered.
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« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2011, 09:24:20 am »
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It's lovely, isn't it. Republicans have full control and still have to screw one of their own. Grin

This is also why they're talking congressional before state house... it's the controversial part.

Well, technically the same is true in Massachusetts. The difference is they have a senate race and a bunch of old people there who might retire.

I also don't think they're quite as keen on regional interests.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2011, 09:27:54 am »
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It's lovely, isn't it. Republicans have full control and still have to screw one of their own. Grin

This is also why they're talking congressional before state house... it's the controversial part.

Well, technically the same is true in Massachusetts. The difference is they have a senate race and a bunch of old people there who might retire.

I also don't think they're quite as keen on regional interests.
Yes. Democrats are also marginally more used to it... and of course, without the VRA, you might try to eliminate Richmond instead here. Heck, his district is drastically underpopulated.
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« Reply #18 on: January 13, 2011, 06:29:57 pm »
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This was my first shot at it.

The problem is you end up over population. You either don't cover the full coast, or you have to split either Calcasieu or Lafayette. Plus I didn't cover St Bernard or all the population in Jefferson that probably should be covered.
Probably bring LA-1 down through St.Bernard (most of the population is, or was) just outside New Orleans, and then keep going to Plaquemines if this let's you help get all of Calcasieu and Lafayette.  You could also get the whole of Jefferson in LA-1 or 2, and start the coastal district at Lafourche.
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« Reply #19 on: January 13, 2011, 09:49:48 pm »
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This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.




The Cajuns will be pretty happy here, as will the guys in the red district.

Scalise gets a fairly compact and solid district, but he's safe under any map.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

I can't blame Jindal for running away from this.

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« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2011, 11:37:41 pm »
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This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.




The Cajuns will be pretty happy here, as will the guys in the red district.

Scalise gets a fairly compact and solid district, but he's safe under any map.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

I can't blame Jindal for running away from this.


Not too bad really.  Change it so the 3 NOLA districts are Purple, Yellow, and Green, with the two that reach up to Baton Rouge, purple and yellow. 
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2011, 05:48:39 am »
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Yep, seems you read the two posts about where additional cajuns live. Smiley Saves me the bother of going back to the map one last time, since (except probably for a cleaner New Orleans) this is what it'd have come out as.
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2011, 08:47:29 am »
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This is the best I could do to keep everyone happy. Well, 5/6 of the state anyway.




The Cajuns will be pretty happy here, as will the guys in the red district.

Scalise gets a fairly compact and solid district, but he's safe under any map.

The Republicans in Livingston might cry bloody murder at getting represented by Rodney Alexander, though.

But that's the problem with the 2 cajun/2 north configuration. By definition it means crunching the 6th, but someone has to take that territory.

I can't blame Jindal for running away from this.


Not too bad really.  Change it so the 3 NOLA districts are Purple, Yellow, and Green, with the two that reach up to Baton Rouge, purple and yellow. 

Close up of New Orleans. I left Orleans Parish intact.





Its odd how Rodney Alexander (elected 2002) is the senior member of the delegation here. Boustany was elected in 2004, the rest of them are over the last 2 years. They have a combined ~20 years of seniority.
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« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2011, 04:29:09 pm »
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Its odd how Rodney Alexander (elected 2002) is the senior member of the delegation here. Boustany was elected in 2004, the rest of them are over the last 2 years. They have a combined ~20 years of seniority.
When the legislature was debating returning to the open primary for congressional elections, those opposed argued that it would cost Louisiana seniority (with a party primary, representatives are elected in early November; with the open primary in December, if a runoff is needed).  But they didn't figure out the reason that there was so little seniority was that they had replaced everyone in the last few years, with some of them two times.  In addition, seniority is measured from January when the term begins.  At worst, a representative elected in December is going to get an office a long way from the capitol.

Incidentally, Edwin Edwards has been released from prison, to serve the rest of his sentence in home confinement.

It might make sense to put all of Point Coupee in the purple district, and Avoyelles entirely in the yellow or the purple district.  This would eliminate a couple of county splits, and place the entire Atchafalaya River in the purple district.  While it may look cosmetically worse, it is very difficult to travel through that area by road.  Mapquest says to cross over at Natchez if traveling between Monroe and Baton Rouge.

This assumes a balancing adjustment can be founde in East Baton Rouge and Ascension.

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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2011, 11:53:28 am »
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Louisiana (on the 2009 ACS, so this will have to change slightly for the Census as Orleans Parish was overestimated in the ACS). Two Cajun seats, two Northern seats, one black seat, no problems. The key was to put a bunch of Jefferson Parish in with LA-03. LA-02 is 57% black.










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