US House Redistricting: Kentucky

[Sibboleth]

They ought to draw a Western district, an Eastern district a Southern district, a Louisville district and then districts based around the Cincinnati suburbs and Lexington&etc respective made up from whatever else is left. Not in the interests of either party to draw that map, so it won't happen. Alas.

[So the Heroes Fall]

They ought to draw a Western district, an Eastern district a Southern district, a Louisville district and then districts based around the Cincinnati suburbs and Lexington&etc respective made up from whatever else is left. Not in the interests of either party to draw that map, so it won't happen. Alas.

Isn't that basically the current map?

[Sibboleth]

They ought to draw a Western district, an Eastern district a Southern district, a Louisville district and then districts based around the Cincinnati suburbs and Lexington&etc respective made up from whatever else is left. Not in the interests of either party to draw that map, so it won't happen. Alas.

Isn't that basically the current map?

Oh no, not at all. Have a closer look:



It's not a gerrymander, but it's completely illogical.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Ah, I never noticed that weird appendage in the first.

[jimrtex]

Ah, I never noticed that weird appendage in the first.

It wraps around Bowling Green.  There are probably more people in Bowling Green than in the area to its east.  KY-1 also just barely comes up to Owensboro.  I suspect you might have ended up splitting either city.  Since KY-1 needs some more population, it might make sense to take Owensboro this time, and switch the area east of Bowling Green to KY-2.

[Sibboleth]

Yeah, the logical thing to do would be to draw a district based on Bowling Green to an extent.

[MilesC56]

BUMP

Here's what I came up with yesterday.

Given the split redistricting control, I made very minor changes.

Basically, KY-02 trades out parts of 2 Paul counties (Scott and Lincoln) for 2 Conway counties (Bath and Montgomery).

[Vasall des Midas]

I don't think KY 2000 was a GOP gerrymander or even an incumbent gerrymander.

It preserved the 1990 map, which I'm not sure who drew it and how it was intended, but which certainly functioned as a GOP gerrymander from 94 on (until Chandler captured the sixth and dug in. Counting the continued presence of a Blue Dog in the 4th as an accident.) It splits the Dems' coal country strongholds.

[Torie]

It splits the Dems' [former] coal country strongholds.

Once upon a time, the coal mountain counties (Dem) dominated those mountain counties without (GOP). Those days are just so yesterday.

[Vasall des Midas]

It's not just that. The southern end of coal country has swung really, really, heavily to the GOP over the last decade. Like, really heavily. Like they've rediscovered their submerged GOP roots after 70 years.

[nclib]

It's not just that. The southern end of coal country has swung really, really, heavily to the GOP over the last decade. Like, really heavily. Like they've rediscovered their submerged GOP roots after 70 years.

Have they swung nearly as strong in House/Senate races?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's still enough Dem-friendly territory to constitute a non-Louisville district. The question is whether Chandler would *want* a safer district, given his conservadem tendencies.

[MilesC56]

I don't think Chandler would have to worry much about a challenge from the left. From what I can tell, most KY Democrats are still more conservative than the national party.

[MilesC56]

This is probably the safest Democratic district that could be drawn (outside of Louisville).

Actually, neither Hal Rogers nor Geoff Davis would live in that district. If the Legislature draws an incumbent-protection plan, we could see a district that looks like this for Chandler.

[dpmapper]

Why would the GOP agree to help Chandler?  None of their Reps. are in any danger.  If I were them I'd just argue for status quo and/or compactness. 

[MilesC56]

I was just putting that out there. I'm expecting a pretty status quo map.

[Vasall des Midas]

*whistles innocently*

[Torie]

Nice Dem Gerry there. 

[Vasall des Midas]

Nice Dem Gerry there. 

Yep - the Green district was drawn as a max R pack based on the 1996 results map.



Though *something somewhat like this map* is actually also what makes the most CoI sense... I'll need to find some better solution for the red district and especially for Fort Knox / Elizabethtown. There's a few too many people west of Frankfort (which I feel belongs with Lexington) and the Cinci burbs and a few too few to the east...

[MilesC56]

Its sounds like the Legislature may actually pass an incumbent-protection map.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Last time, Republicans were trying to get Oldham County moved into the 3rd to help Anne Northup.  After Ken Lucas won relatively big in 1998, it was assumed  that he was pretty safe.  Only after Don Bell ran closer than expected in 2000 did Republicans think that they could get the 4th back.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kentucky House Dems have proposed a map:

[Sibboleth]

lol

[MilesC56]

...I don't get it.

[Sibboleth]

...I don't get it.

At a quick glance, it makes Chandler ever-so-slightly safer. It also makes the Whitfield and Rogers districts somewhat easier to target in the event of retirement and/or death.