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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Alabama  (Read 6610 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« on: January 10, 2011, 09:08:34 am »
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Check out my disgusting Democratic gerrymander that I made in 30 minutes:



District 1: This is the ultimate packing of less-Democratic whites into one district. Notice that I tried to connect Madison/Limestone whites to the rest of the ultra-White hinterlands. This happened for a reason. 86% White/8% Black/6% Other

District 2: My first Democratic district. Black belt + African-American areas of Birmingham + University of Alabama = Democratic stronghold. I'm confident this district voted for Obama by over 60% which means virtually any Democrat could be elected here. No need for blue dog to hold this down. 43% White/53% Black/4% Other

District 3: This is my Blue Dog-mander and my attempt to create a somewhat swingy district to add to the two heavily Black Democratic districts. It connects Black areas of Huntsville, Decatur to the traditional hinterlands of DeKalb and Cherokee. The idea was to remove the exurban ultra-GOP strongholds from the area that would be AL-5. This district might be winnable by a Blue Dog in a wave election. A Bobby Bright toolbag wouldn't be necessary, the old version of Parker Griffith that is slightly better would suffice. 74% White/18% Black/7% Other

District 4: Another attempt to pack whites. This district is even worse than my AL-1 because it has Birmingham's whitey suburbs. At least my AL-1 has some white trash that would vote for a guy like Ron Sparks. This district would vote for a Satanic Republic over Jesus. 85% White/9% Black/5% Other

District 5: This is Alabama's equivalent for Stanford Bishop's seat. Democrats should run a somewhat populist liberal like Ron Sparks here in order to lock this district down. However a white Democrat winning a primary here would be very, very difficult. A generic Black candidate would probably win 9 times out of 10 but I'd be nervous about this one. 48% White/48% Black/4% Other

District 6: Unlike AL-3 this district could never vote for a Democrat, even though there are a decent chunk of African-Americans here thanks to Mobile. This district actually doesn't look gross (!) 68% White/27% Black/5% Other

District 7: Contains a few clumps of Blacks, but other than that is a hellish district. 74% White/21% Black/5% Other

The idea roster for Alabama would be with this map: 3 Democrats and 4 Republicans. Not bad. I probably could work to make this much better but whatevski.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2011, 10:46:31 am by TheDeadFlagBlues »Logged



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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2011, 10:23:08 am »
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If I was the GOP there, I would draw the AA sections of Montgomery into either the 7th or Spencer Bachus's 6th to prevent any Bobby Bright comebacks, and also swap some territory between the 3rd and 4th.

Overall very minor changes.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2011, 05:38:38 pm »
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72% black district in Alabama
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2011, 05:43:46 pm »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2011, 05:51:05 pm »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".

Oh I know. I don't think its necessary to do so anyway. I just wanted to see how high the number could go.

I'm sure there won't be all those tentacles into the 1st, and that the 7th will stop at Montgomery County rather than going into Macon/Bullock.

Then you just use Spencer Bachus and Aderholts R+26 districts to take in the necessary population in Jefferson county.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2011, 06:07:29 pm »
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Something like this is what I guess is the final product. Only a handful of county splits, really, and it safeguards the purple 3rd.

I really like how the teal district looks like a duck or a dragon, depending on your view.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2011, 07:57:37 pm »
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On an aside... just read the profile of the new Congresswoman for AL-07. She is ridiculously impressive. Too bad she's in Alabama, so she'll never be anything more than a Representative unless she gets appointed to something (or runs for President, but I'm not convinced any Representative could leap straight from the House to a Presidential nomination these days).
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brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2011, 08:03:56 pm »
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On an aside... just read the profile of the new Congresswoman for AL-07. She is ridiculously impressive. Too bad she's in Alabama, so she'll never be anything more than a Representative unless she gets appointed to something (or runs for President, but I'm not convinced any Representative could leap straight from the House to a Presidential nomination these days).

She was at Princeton at the same time as Michelle Obama, it looks like.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2011, 08:21:36 pm »
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On an aside... just read the profile of the new Congresswoman for AL-07. She is ridiculously impressive. Too bad she's in Alabama, so she'll never be anything more than a Representative unless she gets appointed to something (or runs for President, but I'm not convinced any Representative could leap straight from the House to a Presidential nomination these days).

She was at Princeton at the same time as Michelle Obama, it looks like.

Funny thing is that Artur Davis has just as impressive of a resume.  Wish her the best, though, she seems like a very intelligent woman.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2011, 02:36:04 am »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".

What is untraditional about a map like that in Alabama?

In 2000, AL-7 was 70.0% black and included an arm over towards Birmingham.  The 2000s redistricting dropped to 62.0%.

In 2000, AL-7 and AL-6 were 70.0% and 14.9%, after redistricting 62.0% and 26.0%.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2011, 11:26:44 am by jimrtex »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2011, 05:40:47 am »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".

What is untraditional about a map like that in Alabama?
I didn't say it's untraditional. Justice Kennedy says it's unconstitutional if he can be bothered on that particular day. (Actually the words are Sandra Day O'Connor's.) The current AL-7 unites urban Birmingham with the western half of the Black Belt. That's necessary to create a certainly Black seat even though the percentage is well in excess... cause if you swap out the rural parts for an equally sized part of lily white suburbia from Bachus' seat, you're on highly polarized bellwether territory. It also includes Tuscaloosa because it was in the way, even though it's 60odd% White. The eastern half of the Black Belt is instead divided between two usually Republican seats, and one of those fell in 2008 and wouldn't have if it didn't include some Black influence. (There aren't enough Blacks for a second Black seat without some really "extremely irregular" mapmaking, so let's ignore that option.)
Any attempt to further pack the seventh will end up in court. A well-done one like krazen's second will be upheld there. A seriously overstretching one like his first might or might not be, and it's just not a risk worth taking.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2011, 08:54:09 am »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".

What is untraditional about a map like that in Alabama?

Most of the black pack occurs from the move into Montgomery. The district goes up from 61% to 69%, from there all the chopping in the world only gets you another 3-4%.
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2011, 11:09:18 am »
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Raising it to that high might be problematic in court, seeing as the district is "so extremely irregular on its face that it rationally can be viewed only as an effort to segregate the races for purposes of voting, without regard for traditional districting principles".

What is untraditional about a map like that in Alabama?
I didn't say it's untraditional. Justice Kennedy says it's unconstitutional if he can be bothered on that particular day. (Actually the words are Sandra Day O'Connor's.) The current AL-7 unites urban Birmingham with the western half of the Black Belt. That's necessary to create a certainly Black seat even though the percentage is well in excess... cause if you swap out the rural parts for an equally sized part of lily white suburbia from Bachus' seat, you're on highly polarized bellwether territory. It also includes Tuscaloosa because it was in the way, even though it's 60odd% White. The eastern half of the Black Belt is instead divided between two usually Republican seats, and one of those fell in 2008 and wouldn't have if it didn't include some Black influence. (There aren't enough Blacks for a second Black seat without some really "extremely irregular" mapmaking, so let's ignore that option.)
Any attempt to further pack the seventh will end up in court. A well-done one like krazen's second will be upheld there. A seriously overstretching one like his first might or might not be, and it's just not a risk worth taking.

The third district was actually drawn being designed for a conservative Democrat.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2011, 10:06:27 am »
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So, how likely is it that Alabama be required to have two black-majority seats? It's 26% black, which is much closer to 2/7 than 1/7, and two black majority seats are not only possible but fairly easy. Map below has seats that are 55% black (the Birmingham seat) and 64% black (the Montgomery seat).


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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2011, 10:11:52 am »
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These districts are not genuine communities of interest, and the population is still below exactly 2/7th. You might have a chance forcing it if the Black population were over 2/7th, or if your seventh seat were entirely in the Birmingham metro or at very maximum extended only to Tuscaloosa. As is though, nigh on zero.
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2011, 10:24:27 am »
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It could probably be cut back from Etowah and Calhoun Counties in exchange for some rural areas to the south if they would be better suited to communities of interest analysis. I don't think you could do a 50% black seat in just the Birmingham MSA, though.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2011, 11:07:54 am »
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It could probably be cut back from Etowah and Calhoun Counties in exchange for some rural areas to the south if they would be better suited to communities of interest analysis. I don't think you could do a 50% black seat in just the Birmingham MSA, though.

Can the green seat be done without chopping CD-1 in half and forcing water continuity? And I'm not talking a single precinct chain, but rather cutting the Mobile leg out entirely.
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2011, 11:16:09 am »
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It could probably be cut back from Etowah and Calhoun Counties in exchange for some rural areas to the south if they would be better suited to communities of interest analysis. I don't think you could do a 50% black seat in just the Birmingham MSA, though.

Can the green seat be done without chopping CD-1 in half and forcing water continuity? And I'm not talking a single precinct chain, but rather cutting the Mobile leg out entirely.

Probably. I didn't try it. It has a LOT of wiggle room, though.

You could also get land continuity by just drawing out the southern and coastal parts of Mobile to get the western areas connected to one of the bridges across Mobile Bay while leaving the other black parts of Mobile in the Montgomery black seat. That's definitely feasible, especially because I-10 runs right along the water on the Mobile side so you don't need to cut through the populated areas.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: February 28, 2011, 08:58:11 am »
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The Alabama map with updated census figures.

Not much to say; the urban Birmingham districts contract a bit and the rural southern ones expand a bit.




By VAP CD-7 is 64.8% black. CD-1 is 24.5%, CD-2 is 28.1%. The rest are in the teens.
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muon2
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« Reply #19 on: February 28, 2011, 11:07:13 am »

The Alabama map with updated census figures.

Not much to say; the urban Birmingham districts contract a bit and the rural southern ones expand a bit.




By VAP CD-7 is 64.8% black. CD-1 is 24.5%, CD-2 is 28.1%. The rest are in the teens.

One could accuse that map of packing the blacks in CD-7. I did the following map back in '09 with estimates, but a quick check of the 2010 data shows that basic idea still works. With 2010 data one can make CD-2 51.4% black VAP and CD-7 53.5% black.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: February 28, 2011, 11:48:36 am »
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The Alabama map with updated census figures.

Not much to say; the urban Birmingham districts contract a bit and the rural southern ones expand a bit.




By VAP CD-7 is 64.8% black. CD-1 is 24.5%, CD-2 is 28.1%. The rest are in the teens.

One could accuse that map of packing the blacks in CD-7. I did the following map back in '09 with estimates, but a quick check of the 2010 data shows that basic idea still works. With 2010 data one can make CD-2 51.4% black VAP and CD-7 53.5% black.




I'm sure they could, but I doubt they get anywhere. I would expect the Alabama redistricters to draw this kind of map I made.
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muon2
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« Reply #21 on: February 28, 2011, 12:36:10 pm »

The Alabama map with updated census figures.

Not much to say; the urban Birmingham districts contract a bit and the rural southern ones expand a bit.

By VAP CD-7 is 64.8% black. CD-1 is 24.5%, CD-2 is 28.1%. The rest are in the teens.

One could accuse that map of packing the blacks in CD-7. I did the following map back in '09 with estimates, but a quick check of the 2010 data shows that basic idea still works. With 2010 data one can make CD-2 51.4% black VAP and CD-7 53.5% black.

I'm sure they could, but I doubt they get anywhere. I would expect the Alabama redistricters to draw this kind of map I made.

It goes to my same argument I made yesterday on the LA thread. An aggressive DoJ could try to challenge mapmakers in R-controlled states by demanding better minority representation. AL is 26% black, and 2/7 is 28.5% so two districts is in better proportion to the state's black population than one district.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #22 on: February 28, 2011, 12:47:35 pm »
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The Alabama map with updated census figures.

Not much to say; the urban Birmingham districts contract a bit and the rural southern ones expand a bit.

By VAP CD-7 is 64.8% black. CD-1 is 24.5%, CD-2 is 28.1%. The rest are in the teens.

One could accuse that map of packing the blacks in CD-7. I did the following map back in '09 with estimates, but a quick check of the 2010 data shows that basic idea still works. With 2010 data one can make CD-2 51.4% black VAP and CD-7 53.5% black.

I'm sure they could, but I doubt they get anywhere. I would expect the Alabama redistricters to draw this kind of map I made.

It goes to my same argument I made yesterday on the LA thread. An aggressive DoJ could try to challenge mapmakers in R-controlled states by demanding better minority representation. AL is 26% black, and 2/7 is 28.5% so two districts is in better proportion to the state's black population than one district.

If they want the fight, then they'll get it.  One would think they would choose better cases, given prior precedent. 

Also, one wonders how happy the blacks will be down there.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2011, 09:52:30 am »
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Lame state legislators are bickering about the congressional plan again. Some chump wants to keep Tuscaloosa County whole in the 4th (including the black areas). The 4th is R+28 or so now so its completely irrevelant and stupid.

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/05/alabama_redistricting_panel_ba.html
http://www.whnt.com/news/whnt-congressional-redistricting-to-shake-up-north-alabama-20110518,0,4465368.story

Montgomery blacks of course go into the 7th.

Beyond that, Brooks wants to drop some of the Northwestern Alabama counties (historically Democratic) to Aderholt in exchange for heavy GOP counties in Northeastern Alabama. Doesn't look like he's getting it.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2011, 03:18:26 pm »
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Lame state legislators are bickering about the congressional plan again. Some chump wants to keep Tuscaloosa County whole in the 4th (including the black areas). The 4th is R+28 or so now so its completely irrevelant and stupid.

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/05/alabama_redistricting_panel_ba.html
http://www.whnt.com/news/whnt-congressional-redistricting-to-shake-up-north-alabama-20110518,0,4465368.story

Montgomery blacks of course go into the 7th.


That would be what is called "packing" and the Obama Justice Department should deny preclearance to any map that packs blacks into one district when it would be easy to create two black majority districts that are both about 53% black. 
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