US House Redistricting: Alabama

[Invisible Obama]

Yes, it was very simple to accomplish that





Districts are 52% and 53% Black respectively.

[ex-Senator X]

Well if South Carolina, probably won't work out, at least it should be fairly easy to force a minority-majority seat here.

[psychicpanda]

If you wanted to get three leaning Democratic seats in Alabama you could give Jefferson County it's own seat (it's exactly the right size and it went for Obama in '08) and aggressively gerrymander two black-majority seats (one would probably have to reach up to Huntsville).

[Nichlemn]

If you wanted to get three leaning Democratic seats in Alabama you could give Jefferson County it's own seat (it's exactly the right size and it went for Obama in '08) and aggressively gerrymander two black-majority seats (one would probably have to reach up to Huntsville).

A district voting for Obama does not make it "leaning Democratic". After all, it went Democratic by a slightly smaller margin than the nation and importantly, did it with a black surge that may not be present in later elections (the county went 54% for Bush in 2004, for instance).

[krazen1211]

Well, the whiners about Tuscaloosa were shut up.

New plan in action, pdf here. Really awesome map, passed almost unanimously too. The monkey business proposed by some here is not being seriously contemplated by the Alabama democratic party.


http://www.gadsdentimes.com/article/20110519/NEWS/110519696/1016/NEWS?p=all


The joint Legislative Committee on Reapportionment by a 19-1 vote on Thursday approved a congressional redistricting plan that would keep Etowah County in the 4th Congressional District.

Moving Democrat-leaning Colbert County voters from the 5th District into the majority-Republican 4th District potentially will dilute Democratic voting strength in the 5th District that only recently elected its first Republican.

[ex-Senator X]

Well, the whiners about Tuscaloosa were shut up.

New plan in action, pdf here. Really awesome map, passed almost unanimously too. The monkey business proposed by some here is not being seriously contemplated by the Alabama democratic party.


http://www.gadsdentimes.com/article/20110519/NEWS/110519696/1016/NEWS?p=all


The joint Legislative Committee on Reapportionment by a 19-1 vote on Thursday approved a congressional redistricting plan that would keep Etowah County in the 4th Congressional District.

Moving Democrat-leaning Colbert County voters from the 5th District into the majority-Republican 4th District potentially will dilute Democratic voting strength in the 5th District that only recently elected its first Republican.

Hopefully the DOJ will force another majority-minority seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Nobody seems to care, but Alabama has a new map. Here it is:

[krazen1211]

They actually improved slightly on my plan. I'm impressed.

[Lіef]

Hopefully the DOJ will force another majority-minority seat.

^^^^

[MilesC56]

Hopefully the DOJ will force another majority-minority seat.

^^^^

I agree, but AL is only 26% black.

The DOJ would be better off forcing 2 VRA districts in LA and SC. Those states would be more worth the effort.

[Bacon King]

So is the atrocious three-way split in Montgomery a race thing, or is it just to prevent a Bobby Bright comeback?

[krazen1211]

So is the atrocious three-way split in Montgomery a race thing, or is it just to prevent a Bobby Bright comeback?

It was probably just a way to prevent a split in a different county. No racial element as most of the Montgomery blacks went into the black district.

[Mr.Phips]

The Obama DOJ better deny preclearance to this map.  You could very easily create a second black majority district here. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So is the atrocious three-way split in Montgomery a race thing, or is it just to prevent a Bobby Bright comeback?

More likely to protect Mike Rogers. His district currently has a very consistent floor of about 40% for a Democrat; even in 2010, with a nobody opponent, he only won 59-41, and he lost four counties: Coosa (moved to the 6th), Macon, Montgomery (mostly removed), and Russell.

[krazen1211]

So is the atrocious three-way split in Montgomery a race thing, or is it just to prevent a Bobby Bright comeback?

More likely to protect Mike Rogers. His district currently has a very consistent floor of about 40% for a Democrat; even in 2010, with a nobody opponent, he only won 59-41, and he lost four counties: Coosa (moved to the 6th), Macon, Montgomery (mostly removed), and Russell.

I think he was referring to the fact that they could (and probably should) have moved Rogers out of the County entirely and split it between 2 and 7. That of course would have meant that 2 and 3 would have to split something else.

[muon2]

The Obama DOJ better deny preclearance to this map.  You could very easily create a second black majority district here. 

Hopefully the DOJ will force another majority-minority seat.

^^^^

I agree, but AL is only 26% black.

The DOJ would be better off forcing 2 VRA districts in LA and SC. Those states would be more worth the effort.

This is an interesting legal problem. The black voting age population is 24.9% of the state's total, which is equivalent to 1.74 house seats. It's also true that one could certainly draw two-black majority seats in AL. It's not clear whether one must draw two.

The SCOTUS has ruled that if a state creates a number of districts where the minority has control of the district that is roughly proportional to the fraction of the voting age population, then there is no obligation to create additional minority seats. The issue here is what constitutes rough proportionality for a fractional number of districts. Rounding 1.74 to the nearest number gives two seats, but an argument can easily be made that 1 is the nearest whole number that doesn't exceed 1.74, since the decision said that the state didn't have to exceed their standard. Rough is just not a precise term, and the court clearly wanted it that way to avoid the creation of a safe harbor for state redistricting.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The Obama DOJ better deny preclearance to this map.  You could very easily create a second black majority district here. 

Hopefully the DOJ will force another majority-minority seat.

^^^^

I agree, but AL is only 26% black.

The DOJ would be better off forcing 2 VRA districts in LA and SC. Those states would be more worth the effort.

This is an interesting legal problem. The black voting age population is 24.9% of the state's total, which is equivalent to 1.74 house seats. It's also true that one could certainly draw two-black majority seats in AL. It's not clear whether one must draw two.

The SCOTUS has ruled that if a state creates a number of districts where the minority has control of the district that is roughly proportional to the fraction of the voting age population, then there is no obligation to create additional minority seats. The issue here is what constitutes rough proportionality for a fractional number of districts. Rounding 1.74 to the nearest number gives two seats, but an argument can easily be made that 1 is the nearest whole number that doesn't exceed 1.74, since the decision said that the state didn't have to exceed their standard. Rough is just not a precise term, and the court clearly wanted it that way to avoid the creation of a safe harbor for state redistricting.

I don't buy that logic. If the argument is made that 1 is the nearest whole number that doesn't exceed 1.74, then surely the same logic must be applied to white-majority seats. The white voting age population of Alabama is 69.4% of the state's total, which is equivalent to 4.86 house seats. By that logic, whites are only entitled to 4 house seats, since 4 is the nearest whole number that doesn't exceed 4.86. This would yield 4 white-majority seats and 1 black-majority seat, and leave 2 seats undetermined.

Alternatively, one could simply round both 4.86 and 1.74 to the nearest whole number, yielding 5 white-majority seats and 2 black-majority seats.

[Vasall des Midas]

Whites are not a protected minority. We're dealing with case law about a minimum number that must be drawn unless it would look totally ridiculous and throw together areas that absolutely don't belong together (which two Black seats in Alabama wouldn't... but two Black seats in South Carolina would... though really it would only look ridiculous... South Carolina, of course, having right about Black population for 2.0 seats, and looking the more winnable case).

[jimrtex]

So is the atrocious three-way split in Montgomery a race thing, or is it just to prevent a Bobby Bright comeback?

They probably just wanted to include Autaga and Elmore in AL-2 and needed a connector, while shoring up the the black percentages in AL-7 and AL-3.  They also appear to have tried to avoid splitting too many counties.

[krazen1211]

Lame state legislators are bickering about the congressional plan again. Some chump wants to keep Tuscaloosa County whole in the 4th (including the black areas). The 4th is R+28 or so now so its completely irrevelant and stupid.

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/05/alabama_redistricting_panel_ba.html
http://www.whnt.com/news/whnt-congressional-redistricting-to-shake-up-north-alabama-20110518,0,4465368.story

Montgomery blacks of course go into the 7th.

That would be what is called "packing" and the Obama Justice Department should deny preclearance to any map that packs blacks into one district when it would be easy to create two black majority districts that are both about 53% black. 

Precleared.

[Torie]

This VRA is a nightmare. I wish the courts would cut it back to the pornography standard, which means it needs to be pretty gross before the courts move in. Better yet would be to just repeal it, which will never happen anytime soon.

[krazen1211]

This VRA is a nightmare. I wish the courts would cut it back to the pornography standard, which means it needs to be pretty gross before the courts move in. Better yet would be to just repeal it, which will never happen anytime soon.

This district in particular would be no different. It makes too much sense in the south to shove all the obama vote into 1 district.

[Vasall des Midas]

Yeah, I understood that adding Montgomery would not be deemed packing when I noticed it was done in the 90s too...

[muon2]

I thought I would look to see how well a district could be drawn in AL with whole counties that would elect a black candidate of choice. Technically the courts have interpreted the VRA to set a 50% threshold to qualify for relief, but have only said that the district should be able to elect the candidate of choice for the minority group. In IL the East St Louis state house district was just drawn with under 50% BVAP, even though a district over 50% could have been drawn.

I started with a whole county district within 0.5% of the ideal population as CD 2. The constraint of the southern population required a path along the eastern edge, which limited the district to 46.0% BVAP. White VAP is at 49.7%, and I suspect this district would elect the candidate of choice for the black minority.

To draw the rest of the map, I used whole counties except for a split of Jefferson, since I found that at least one county needed to be split to maintain districts within 0.5% of the ideal population. The split I used created a second opportunity for blacks in CD 7 which would be 43.6% BVAP.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I thought I would look to see how well a district could be drawn in AL with whole counties that would elect a black candidate of choice. Technically the courts have interpreted the VRA to set a 50% threshold to qualify for relief, but have only said that the district should be able to elect the candidate of choice for the minority group. In IL the East St Louis state house district was just drawn with under 50% BVAP, even though a district over 50% could have been drawn.

I started with a whole county district within 0.5% of the ideal population as CD 2. The constraint of the southern population required a path along the eastern edge, which limited the district to 46.0% BVAP. White VAP is at 49.7%, and I suspect this district would elect the candidate of choice for the black minority.

To draw the rest of the map, I used whole counties except for a split of Jefferson, since I found that at least one county needed to be split to maintain districts within 0.5% of the ideal population. The split I used created a second opportunity for blacks in CD 7 which would be 43.6% BVAP.

I realize I'm a little late commenting on this, but this is a really tough sell. The district is R+1, with both Obama and Kerry underperforming their national average. What's more, in 2008, Jeff Sessions carried the district against an African-American challenger with an African-American on the top of the ticket. While it may be the best that one can do with whole counties, it's hardly a lock.