US House Redistricting: South Carolina

[True Federalist]

Clyburn realizes that he's safer with just 1 Maj-Min district. Also, given the heavy gerrymandering required to get 2 Maj-Min districts, getting it will be problematic, nd likely to do more long-term harm for a little short term harm.

[Padfoot]

SC maps are out. Basically as predicted.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/05/19/1824510/suggested-horry-anchors-new-congressional.html
http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlanDistrictMaps.html

Both Greenville and Spartanburg were whining about not being split....well, 1 of them had to be. So it was Greenville, as Gowdy is from Spartanburg.

How risky is that 1st district for the Republicans?  I'm assuming it is reasonably safe right now but isn't that area trending Dem?

[krazen1211]

SC maps are out. Basically as predicted.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/05/19/1824510/suggested-horry-anchors-new-congressional.html
http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlanDistrictMaps.html

Both Greenville and Spartanburg were whining about not being split....well, 1 of them had to be. So it was Greenville, as Gowdy is from Spartanburg.

How risky is that 1st district for the Republicans?  I'm assuming it is reasonably safe right now but isn't that area trending Dem?

It's about 56% McCain or so, I believe, and should be fine for the decade. A good number of the white liberals should end up in the Clyburn district. The 7th is actually weaker at about 54% McCain, but Horry County is growing faster than the Pee Dee.

[Dgov]

Actually, since the state has two black representatives you can make an argument that Blacks aren't actually under-represented under a 6-1 plan.  Its the same reason why Georgia only has 2 Black-Majority districts despite deserving 4--the state has 4 Black Congressmen.

[Invisible Obama]

The VRA is about minority voters electing a candidate of their choice, not tailoring districts that will guarantee the election of a minority. SC-1 doesn't qualify under that criteria, even if it is represented by an African-American, but that logic it would had to have been converted to a minority-majority district just because of who was elected to represent it.

[krazen1211]

Some minor tweaks, and we are off.

http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlan/Sub-Committee%20Approved%20Changes%205-26-2011%20Map.tif

[BigSkyBob]

The VRA is about minority voters electing a candidate of their choice, not tailoring districts that will guarantee the election of a minority. SC-1 doesn't qualify under that criteria, even if it is represented by an African-American, but that logic it would had to have been converted to a minority-majority district just because of who was elected to represent it.

The VRA act was about stopping the "cracking" of minorities so that no minority was elected.

[Vasall des Midas]

The VRA wasn't about redistricting at all (except by implication). It's all VRA-related case law.

[True Federalist]

The ACLU has set down a marker announcing they intend to sue.
(link - The State)

South Carolina could carve out two more minority state Senate districts than proposed as well as a new minority U.S. House district, the American Civil Liberties Union said Tuesday.

...

State Sen. John Scott, D-Columbia, said the state should add a second racial minority district given that 34 percent of the state’s population isn’t white. “We need to have a sixth Republican district? Those numbers don’t pan out,” Scott said.

[ACLU voting rights lawyer Katie] O’Connor said that was an ACLU priority. “We considered whether another majority-minority district was possible and it was,” O’Connor said.

The ACLU recommended a seventh district that includes all of Sumter, Fairfield and Lee counties and parts of Chester, Chesterfield, Clarendon, Darlington, Marlboro, Richland, Spartanburg, Union and York counties.

Some of that proposed district was in U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s current 6th District, including Clyburn’s home. Under the ACLU plan, Clyburn’s old 6th District would be enlarged and extend from the Savannah River on the state’s border with Georgia to near the North Carolina border in Marlboro County.

In other news, the two redistricting committees met jointly yesterday and approved the plans each had already made.  They should get approved later this month when the General Assembly comes back for a few days to override the Governor's line item vetoes of parts of the budget.

(One year Sanford was so piqued at the GA for always overriding his budget vetoes, he only did one line item veto, but it was of the entire budget. )

[Vasall des Midas]

Here is a horrible gerrymander I've worked on, that does provide for two majority-minority districts.  While it can likely be improved on, it does show that it is doable.

CD	Pop	Dev	%W All	%B All	%W 18+	%B 18+	%Rep	%Dem
1	661,272	+506	75.5	14.8	78.3	14.6	65.4	34.6
2	661,383	+617	75.9	16.8	78.1	15.9	66.3	33.7
3	660,894	+128	75.5	15.8	78.0	14.8	66.0	34.0
4	661,498	+732	76.6	14.1	78.8	13.6	68.7	31.3
5	660,016	-750	69.2	23.2	71.8	21.9	62.7	37.3
6	660,204	-562	39.9	52.8	42.7	50.9	38.1	61.9
7	660,097	-669	35.8	56.2	38.8	54.1	33.2	66.8

What is needed is ugly, but not anywhere near that ugly.



Columbia seat 52.4-40.3 Black total, 50.3-43.2 VAP, 62.5 Obama
Charleston seat 52.3-41.0 Black total, 50.3-43.9 VAP, 59.8 Obama - and thus actually the most marginal district in this map, as the southwestern seat is 59.9 McCain. The Blackest of the white seats is the eastern one, at 20.1.

[Vasall des Midas]

I was just idly wondering... it obviously wouldn't fly in real life... but since our argument here is "SC is over 2/7th Black and thus must draw two Black-opportunity districts if it can also be shown to have the areas necessary to drawing two majority-Black VAP districts to at least arguably represent reasonable communities of interest"... and any two Black districts map will rely on one district of Charleston Blacks plus rural/smalltown Blacks in the state's south-central portion and one of Columbia Blacks plus rural/smalltown Blacks in the state's central portion... wouldn't it actually make far more sense, CoI wise, to draw one wholly rural/smalltown Black seat and one urban Black seat that's in two noncontiguous parts, half in Columbia and half in Charleston?

[True Federalist]

What is needed is ugly, but not anywhere near that ugly.

I admit I was going for maximum minority stuffing.

wouldn't it actually make far more sense, CoI wise, to draw one wholly rural/smalltown Black seat and one urban Black seat that's in two noncontiguous parts, half in Columbia and half in Charleston?

Not really. The divide between the low country and the rest of the state is far more significant than urban/rural as far as CoI.

[Vasall des Midas]

Not really. The divide between the low country and the rest of the state is far more significant than urban/rural as far as CoI.

Is that why you drew the areas by the Savannah River into the Columbia seat? It makes the map very ugly. Where exactly would you say the Low Country ends?

[True Federalist]

Not really. The divide between the low country and the rest of the state is far more significant than urban/rural as far as CoI.

Is that why you drew the areas by the Savannah River into the Columbia seat? It makes the map very ugly. Where exactly would you say the Low Country ends?

At its core, the Low Country is the seven counties of Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Colleton, Dorchester, Hampton, and Jasper.  More broadly I'd include the whole coastal plain between the Savannah and Santee Rivers, which adds Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Orangeburg and most of Calhoun.

The Pee Dee region shares some similarity with the Low Country.

However my choice of where to split the 6th and 7th CDs was because of a desire to avoid splitting counties if possible.  If one were willing to accept a split of Orangeburg county, then swapping Allendale, Barnwell, and Bamberg for eastern Orangeburg makes more sense from a CoI and media market POV.

[timothyinMD]

I'm sick of this disgraceful, race based gerrymandering.  That section of the VRA must be stricken.  It's archaic.   The notion that minorities must have their own "majority" seats is inherently biased, racist and segregationist

[Vasall des Midas]

That's right, Democrats took about 3/7th of the SC vote, so they should by right get about 3/7th of seats. Right?

[Vasall des Midas]

According to the newly added partisan figures in DRA, my 1st is 58.6 McCain.  The app's numbers are (on average) 2.7% redder than the real numbers due to the lack of absentee ballots, so figure about 56% for the true total.  It should be safe for Tim Scott.  

Ah, right, that explains my partisan figures per district. They did seem a bit off...

[Vasall des Midas]

Just for hilarity's sake, I'll attempt to draw one (correcting for the figures issue, so I'll be content with McCain by less than 5.)

[Vasall des Midas]

Didn't draw the R parts.
Green district is 50.5-48.4 McCain on app figures, which translates to approximately 51.0-47.9 Obama in real life. Yellow district is 49.7-49.1 Obama even in the app. Both are 56% White (total, 59% in VAP) - you'll notice yellow has the white dem bits of Charleston. As an added bonus, the grey district is over 60% Obama (59.8% in the app) and has a barest of Black pluralities, though not in VAP.
Obviously it's possible - probably not particularly hard - to draw four rl Obama districts. Though they wouldn't look as pretty, I reckon.

The point here is: the uglyness of the above two black democratic seats maps is due only to their having to reach an unnaturally high threshold of Black population, thanks to the way Republicans on the SC have interpreted the VRA. Two Black Democratic (defining a white man whose primary and general electorate is Black-dominated as a Black Democrat) representatives from SC would occur naturally on any not gerrymandered map, unless all the White Liberals decide to vote for the Republican over the Black.
(The three seats wouldn't - fptp even with fair districts doesn't provide for fair representation of political minorities unless they're highly concentrated, and my split of Charleston here is quite unnatural.)

[BigSkyBob]

Didn't draw the R parts.
Green district is 50.5-48.4 McCain on app figures, which translates to approximately 51.0-47.9 Obama in real life. Yellow district is 49.7-49.1 Obama even in the app. Both are 56% White (total, 59% in VAP) - you'll notice yellow has the white dem bits of Charleston. As an added bonus, the grey district is over 60% Obama (59.8% in the app) and has a barest of Black pluralities, though not in VAP.
Obviously it's possible - probably not particularly hard - to draw four rl Obama districts. Though they wouldn't look as pretty, I reckon.

The point here is: the uglyness of the above two black democratic seats maps is due only to their having to reach an unnaturally high threshold of Black population, thanks to the way Republicans on the SC have interpreted the VRA. Two Black Democratic (defining a white man whose primary and general electorate is Black-dominated as a Black Democrat)

1) I see the VRA is now being reintrepreted to protect White liberals. In case you have forgotten, White liberals have never been subjected to the types of acts that the VRA was suppose to remedy.

2)  This presumes a closed primary system in which White voters whom typical vote Republican don't nominate the White Democrat in the primary.

representatives from SC would occur naturally on any not gerrymandered map, unless all the White Liberals decide to vote for the Republican over the Black.
(The three seats wouldn't - fptp even with fair districts doesn't provide for fair representation of political minorities unless they're highly concentrated, and my split of Charleston here is quite unnatural.)

[timothyinMD]

That's right, Democrats took about 3/7th of the SC vote, so they should by right get about 3/7th of seats. Right?

A.  Dems didn't get 3/7th of the vote.

B. It doesn't work that way

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's right, Democrats took about 3/7th of the SC vote, so they should by right get about 3/7th of seats. Right?

A.  Dems didn't get 3/7th of the vote.

Kid, I think it's time to leave your laptop and pick up a math book.

[krazen1211]

http://www.thestate.com/2011/06/15/1859409/house-signs-off-on-plan-to-redraw.html


Dick Harpootlian, chairman of the S.C. Democratic Party, said the party or a group of Democrats will challenge the proposed new maps in court, contending they create too many majority minority districts.


The gist of the lawsuit, he said, would be to encourage the U.S. Justice Department to approve a S.C. plan that moves African-American voters out of majority-black districts to other districts, giving them more sway over who is elected.




LOL, what a bunch of hacks! They say the opposite in so many other states, and for that matter, in the same state for the Congressional map.

ACLU liberals are whining that the Senate map creates too FEW minority districts. Shrug.

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/SC-Dems-call-GOP-district-electoral-apartheid-1424667.php

South Carolina senators with a 33-0 vote gave the Senate's redistricting plan a key second reading with a final vote expected Thursday. That plan includes nine majority black districts instead of the 11 pushed by the American Civil Liberties Union, which also has threatened legal action.

[Insula Dei]

I just spent 45 minutes trying to gerrymander 2.5 Democratic seats in SC  (The result is 2 lean Dem, 2 toss-up, 3 GOP, ftr), but don't know how to post the results. How do I post them?

PS: yes, Dave's Redistricting App, and yes, I've never done this before. The result looks fittingly horrendous

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

That's right, Democrats took about 3/7th of the SC vote, so they should by right get about 3/7th of seats. Right?

A.  Dems didn't get 3/7th of the vote.

3/7 = 42.86%

Obama = 44.90%

2010 Democratic Congressional Candidates = 41.91%

Vincent Sheheen (2010 Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate) = 47.73%