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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: South Carolina  (Read 8941 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« on: January 10, 2011, 09:09:13 am »
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Northern end cropped.

Grey district is new. Lopping all of Horry off CD-1 was my starting point... after that I had to rummage around for white or at least >60% Black areas on the Black side of the current CD1/CD6 divide, but I found enough. All incumbents remain in their seat (if we count Duncan's phony registration address; he actually lives in Greenville.) This kinda forced a three-way split of Columbia:



I *think* all white-majority districts should "usually" be safe for Republicans. Race is CD1 69-24, CD2 65-27, CD3 77-18, CD4 70-20, CD5 71-24, CD6 38-58, CD7 66-27. If you know the state better than me (not that hard) and beg to disagree and have an idea how to rectify things, just say so.
Might be possible to draw an alternative map based on a Greenville-Spartanburg split, as the current district is getting quite urban in this iteration. Scott is from Charleston, so removing that end from CD1 is probably not an option. Wilson lives in the western suburbs of Columbia, so, again, yeah.

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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2011, 09:51:39 am »
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Wilson will not like splitting up Lexington County.  He'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he loses half of his base county.  People here think the GOP will be able to get away with providing for only a single minority-majority district, and they really have nothing to lose by trying.  If they get overruled and have a court-drawn plan with two minority-majority districts, it certainly will be a 5 GOP 2 Dem delegation no matter how it is drawn.
The conventional wisdom on this board has been that South Carolina would have to draw two majority-minority districts that would elect Democrats, but there was an article in The State today that indicates that both Clyburn and the GOP are thinking that the General Assembly will be able to draw only one such district and carve things up so that the other six would elect Republicans.

(link)
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dpmapper
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2011, 10:11:30 am »
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I *think* all white-majority districts should "usually" be safe for Republicans. Race is CD1 69-24, CD2 65-27, CD3 77-18, CD4 70-20, CD5 71-24, CD6 38-58, CD7 66-27. If you know the state better than me (not that hard) and beg to disagree and have an idea how to rectify things, just say so.

There are a fair number of white liberals in Columbia and Charleston, so I'd make sure the districts that include them have a larger white majority.  CD7 in particular seems like it might be borderline. 
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2011, 10:18:40 am »
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That is actually a really clean looking map. I've drawn something similar myself.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2011, 10:25:06 am »
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Wilson will not like splitting up Lexington County.  He'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he loses half of his base county.  People here think the GOP will be able to get away with providing for only a single minority-majority district, and they really have nothing to lose by trying.  If they get overruled and have a court-drawn plan with two minority-majority districts, it certainly will be a 5 GOP 2 Dem delegation no matter how it is drawn.
The conventional wisdom on this board has been that South Carolina would have to draw two majority-minority districts that would elect Democrats, but there was an article in The State today that indicates that both Clyburn and the GOP are thinking that the General Assembly will be able to draw only one such district and carve things up so that the other six would elect Republicans.

(link)
Yeah, I remember that. It was actually part of the reason why I drew South Carolina. And after this, I think I'm fairly confident they'll get through with it. One might try looking what a 2 Black seats map would look like... I have a feeling it would have to be hideous.

As to the Wilson objection (though after his 2010 GE showing, the Assembly just might feel that getting rid of him would be a good thing)... well he didn't lose that much of Lexington. It would be possible to draw the other seats into Aiken instead for an even uglier map. He lost the white areas on the east side of Columbia though... if these were an indispensable part of his primary base then he has a problem. One that's insoluble in *this* setup - might require drawing the grey district all along the state line from Horry to Mulvaney's home in Lancaster, give Wilson a district that stretches north from Columbia, and have the southwestern seat be the open seat?
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2011, 12:12:26 pm »
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There are a lot of 2-VRA district maps buried in the Dave's Redistricting App thread the results aren't that bad, especially when people weren't trying to protect Spratt. The African American population is largely in the southeastern 2/3 of the state, so if you make use of Charleston for one district and Columbia for the other and append rural areas, while having R districts running along the NC and GA borders, it works very well.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2011, 11:20:59 am »
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Gives Joe Wilson a seat that will elect a Columbia Republican. As a special bonus, Jeff Duncan gets to choose where he really wants to live as both seats are free of other incumbents.
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2011, 06:43:51 am »

Yeah, I remember that. It was actually part of the reason why I drew South Carolina. And after this, I think I'm fairly confident they'll get through with it. One might try looking what a 2 Black seats map would look like... I have a feeling it would have to be hideous.

There was a debate on this last year. I offered a couple of alternatives to create a new black CD.

If SC gets seven seats, the Justice Department will likely demand a second black-majority seat. Thus the Republican legislature will likely turn Spratt's district into a black-majority one in addition to keeping Clyburn's black-majority. This will allow the GOP to strengthen its hold on the remaning five seats.

I don't believe it's possible to create two majority-minority districts in South Carolina.  If it is, it would be a most hellacious gerrymander.

It's possible. Here is a link to a website where someone gerrymandered South Carolina to have two black-majority districts. The SC map on top is really gerrymandered, but the SC map below it is much less gerrymandered. It is the one that makes Spratt's district black-majority in addition to Clyburn's. Thus, it is possible to create two black-majority districts in South Carolina without extreme gerrymandering.

There are basically two ways to create 2 black-majority districts in SC using 7 districts, and I posted one on this thread back in Sept. I've posted both below. The major difficulty to making nice districts is the large non-black population along the coast - it's about enough for a district and a half. That means a connection is needed along one side of the state or the other.

The first map maintains the connection that currently exists between Hilton Head and Lexington county. However, it splits Charleston between three districts. The second way is to link Charleston and Hilton Head and avoid a three-way split, but then Myrtle Beach ends up connecting to Rock Hill.




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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2011, 12:20:07 pm »
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Idea here was to split Spratt's old territory and otherwise maintain the existing map.

CD-1: 73% white, 20% black
CD-2: 66% white, 20% black
CD-3: 76% white, 19% black
CD-4: 69% white, 21% black
CD-5: 67% white, 27% black
CD-6: 38% white, 56% black
CD-7: 67% white, 27% black
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2011, 08:46:39 pm »
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For those who want to follow the official process here are the websites for the two subcommittees that will be handling redistricting:

http://redistricting.schouse.gov

http://redistricting.scsenate.gov

Incidentally, the Senate subcommittee does tell you how to go about making a submission if you want to.  Warning, a file from Dave's Redistricting App will not be sufficient.  You'll need access to GIS software, as they expect an ASCII file that lists for each of the 181,908 census blocks which district it is assigned to.
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« Reply #10 on: March 28, 2011, 10:30:30 pm »
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Idea here was to split Spratt's old territory and otherwise maintain the existing map.

CD-1: 73% white, 20% black
CD-2: 66% white, 20% black
CD-3: 76% white, 19% black
CD-4: 69% white, 21% black
CD-5: 67% white, 27% black
CD-6: 38% white, 56% black
CD-7: 67% white, 27% black


That would put both Mulvaney and Spratt as well into SC-7.
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2011, 10:11:06 am »
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In an attempt to spread the GOP strength in the northwest, I tried the following:



Shoving a tendril from Duncan's district into Columbia (to take a few blacks, plus what I assume would be the most liberal white neighborhoods around USC) allows Clyburn to take more of Charleston's blacks from Scott.  Mulvaney seems like a decent fellow, so I'm guessing he's more amenable to the rest of Columbia's moderate white voters than Joe Wilson is.  Instead of Columbia, Wilson soaks up some blacks downstate.  The grey seat is the open seat, perfect for a Myrtle Beach Republican. 
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« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2011, 04:07:00 am »
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I think you set up Wilson to lose a primary to Duncan.
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2011, 12:33:13 pm »
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In an attempt to spread the GOP strength in the northwest, I tried the following:



Shoving a tendril from Duncan's district into Columbia (to take a few blacks, plus what I assume would be the most liberal white neighborhoods around USC) allows Clyburn to take more of Charleston's blacks from Scott.  Mulvaney seems like a decent fellow, so I'm guessing he's more amenable to the rest of Columbia's moderate white voters than Joe Wilson is.  Instead of Columbia, Wilson soaks up some blacks downstate.  The grey seat is the open seat, perfect for a Myrtle Beach Republican. 

That CD-1 looks somewhat marginal. I know though that the Hilton Head Republicans want to get out of Wilson's Lexington based district.




This configuration unfortunately maintains Beaufort in Wilson's Lexington County based district; I'm trying to think of a way around it.
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2011, 01:31:04 pm »
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It's not at all difficult to add a second (relatively) compact African American VRA district in South Carolina. The map below has two districts with an outright majority Non-White Hispanic Single-Race African American VAP:

(I apparently can't post images because I don't have 20 posts, but you can look at the map/statistics on Swing State Project)

As a consequence of adding a second African American VRA district, all 5 incumbent Republicans are made very safe. The main beneficiaries of this are Joe Wilson and Mick Mulvaney - the African American %s in their districts decline considerably. Jim Clyburn would probably run in the 6th District, since he lives in Columbia, and the 7th District would almost certainly elect another African American Democrat.

The two African American VRA districts meet a very high legal population % threshold - it is by no means settled that a majority African American VAP is actually legally required, but this map meets even that standard. White Non-Hispanics are only 43% of the total population in each district.

The two African American VRA districts could be made more compact if any or all of the following are true:

1) Hispanic African Americans are allowed to count towards the African American %.
2) Multi-Racial people who are part African American are allowed to count towards the African American %.
3) African Americans only have to be a majority of the total population, rather than the VAP.
4) African Americans only have to be a plurality of the district.
5) All minority groups combined count towards VRA status, and all that is necessary is that the White Non-Hispanic population

I will be surprised if the DOJ or a group like the NAACP does not sue to force a second such district to be created under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act/the Gingles test.
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2011, 03:56:15 pm »
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Here's the map Matt was talking about:




Not the most horrible gerrymander I've ever seen, but one that might leave SC with a 7-0 GOP delegation in an election such as we had in 2010.  Could well stay 6-1 if this map or a similar one were to put Tim Scott into the 7th district.  Far too clever for its own good.
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2011, 05:56:49 pm »
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That CD-1 looks somewhat marginal. I know though that the Hilton Head Republicans want to get out of Wilson's Lexington based district.


It looks like it might be, but I shoved basically every black precinct in Charleston/North Charleston into Clyburn's district, and there's room to put some liberal white areas in there too.  (I don't know which ones those are, but I have some white downtown Charleston precincts in Clyburn's right now.  Switch them around if they are the wrong ones.)   A significant number of these areas are in CD-01 currently. 

Berkeley and Dorchester have also had their black areas removed, so the remaining parts are pretty hyper GOP.  The only Dem areas left are the Geechees along the coast, and who knows, maybe Tim Scott might appeal to them more than a white Charleston liberal.  
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« Reply #17 on: April 16, 2011, 06:02:40 pm »
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I tried running the numbers on Scott's district in my map.  It's kind of hard because SC lists absentee ballots separately from their precincts, and there are a sizable number of them.  Using a conservative estimate of them, I have Scott's district at 55.22 McCain.  This is probably low since I assumed that absentee ballots ran roughly in the same proportion as each precinct, but they actually go quite a bit more Dem than the in-person ballots.  

So Scott should be quite safe this way, and you could easily make him a point or two safer if you want to soften the grey district a bit.  
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« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2011, 07:33:17 am »
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I tried running the numbers on Scott's district in my map.  It's kind of hard because SC lists absentee ballots separately from their precincts, and there are a sizable number of them.  Using a conservative estimate of them, I have Scott's district at 55.22 McCain.  This is probably low since I assumed that absentee ballots ran roughly in the same proportion as each precinct, but they actually go quite a bit more Dem than the in-person ballots.  

So Scott should be quite safe this way, and you could easily make him a point or two safer if you want to soften the grey district a bit.  

Solid.

From what I've read, my map might be problematic because of Kershaw. They don't want Shaheen in the new district, so Kershaw has to go in the 5th, and Georgetown in the 7th.

So your post 11 map is dead on.

The other unresolved question is what happens to Greenville/Spartanburg county. Neither wants to be split, but 1 of them has to be if they remain together, and you can't attach Spartanburg to the 5th unless Gowdy is willing to move.
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2011, 09:15:22 am »
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According to the newly added partisan figures in DRA, my 1st is 58.6 McCain.  The app's numbers are (on average) 2.7% redder than the real numbers due to the lack of absentee ballots, so figure about 56% for the true total.  It should be safe for Tim Scott.  

I'll repost the map:


Other numbers for my map, before the absentee adjustment:
CD2 (orange, Joe Wilson): 61.8% McCain
CD3 (purple, Duncan): 62.2%
CD4 (red, Gowdy): 61.6%
CD5 (yellow, Mulvaney): 60.4%
CD6 (teal, Clyburn): 68.4% Obama, 57.2% VAP black
CD7 (grey, open): 59.3% McCain.

So the balance is pretty good; Mulvaney shouldn't mind getting parts of Columbia at all, given that, overall, his district goes from 53% McCain to about 57-58%.  Duncan's district is hurt the most by taking in parts of Columbia but he is still in the reddest district of them all.  
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2011, 09:30:56 am »
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SC maps are out. Basically as predicted.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/05/19/1824510/suggested-horry-anchors-new-congressional.html
http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlanDistrictMaps.html

Both Greenville and Spartanburg were whining about not being split....well, 1 of them had to be. So it was Greenville, as Gowdy is from Spartanburg.
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2011, 10:00:39 am »
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SC maps are out. Basically as predicted.

http://www.thestate.com/2011/05/19/1824510/suggested-horry-anchors-new-congressional.html
http://redistricting.schouse.gov/CongressionalPlanDistrictMaps.html

Both Greenville and Spartanburg were whining about not being split....well, 1 of them had to be. So it was Greenville, as Gowdy is from Spartanburg.

Hopefully the DOJ will push for a second Minority-Majority district.
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« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2011, 10:25:57 am »
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It'll be up for a challenge I'm sure.  While it takes a horrible gerrymander to do it, it is possible to draw two minority majority districts.
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Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
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« Reply #23 on: May 19, 2011, 11:19:33 am »
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Here is a horrible gerrymander I've worked on, that does provide for two majority-minority districts.  While it can likely be improved on, it does show that it is doable.


CDPopDev%W All%B All%W 18+%B 18+%Rep%Dem
1661,272+50675.514.878.314.665.434.6
2661,383+61775.916.878.115.966.333.7
3660,894+12875.515.878.014.866.034.0
4661,498+73276.614.178.813.668.731.3
5660,016-75069.223.271.821.962.737.3
6660,204-56239.952.842.750.938.161.9
7660,097-66935.856.238.854.133.266.8
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My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
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« Reply #24 on: May 19, 2011, 11:42:26 am »
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The Democrats actually are somewhat happy with those proposed maps. Nobody seems to be comtemplating such a monstrosity.

Clyburn just released his own 6-1 map.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/472/political-roundup-for-may-18-2011
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