US House Redistricting: South Carolina

[muon2]

Yeah, I remember that. It was actually part of the reason why I drew South Carolina. And after this, I think I'm fairly confident they'll get through with it. One might try looking what a 2 Black seats map would look like... I have a feeling it would have to be hideous.

There was a debate on this last year. I offered a couple of alternatives to create a new black CD.

If SC gets seven seats, the Justice Department will likely demand a second black-majority seat. Thus the Republican legislature will likely turn Spratt's district into a black-majority one in addition to keeping Clyburn's black-majority. This will allow the GOP to strengthen its hold on the remaning five seats.

I don't believe it's possible to create two majority-minority districts in South Carolina.  If it is, it would be a most hellacious gerrymander.

It's possible. Here is a link to a website where someone gerrymandered South Carolina to have two black-majority districts. The SC map on top is really gerrymandered, but the SC map below it is much less gerrymandered. It is the one that makes Spratt's district black-majority in addition to Clyburn's. Thus, it is possible to create two black-majority districts in South Carolina without extreme gerrymandering.

There are basically two ways to create 2 black-majority districts in SC using 7 districts, and I posted one on this thread back in Sept. I've posted both below. The major difficulty to making nice districts is the large non-black population along the coast - it's about enough for a district and a half. That means a connection is needed along one side of the state or the other.

The first map maintains the connection that currently exists between Hilton Head and Lexington county. However, it splits Charleston between three districts. The second way is to link Charleston and Hilton Head and avoid a three-way split, but then Myrtle Beach ends up connecting to Rock Hill.

[muon2]

Congressional redistricting debate splinters Senate

(link - The State)

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As mentioned later in the article, the GOP will do its best to find a plan to agree to so as to avoid having a three-judge Federal panel draw the lines and possibly giving the Democrats the chance to elect a second Representative.

The Senate will resume debate on redistricting on Monday.

I wonder if part of the public fight stems from a private recognition that any 6-1 plan will be vulnerable to a challenge. Black statewide VAP is 26.3%, which is equivalent to 1.84 congressional districts. The standard is "rough proportionality", but there's no clear guidance as to whether 1 district is roughly proportional to 1.84. Perhaps the lawyers internally are suggesting that it would be unlikely to be viewed that way.

It would be bad politically to have the SC GOP appear to give away their new seat to the Dems. If there is no agreement and federal judges give that seat away, then perhaps the political blame is on the judges, not the SC Senate.

[muon2]

I'm pretty sure the Constitution says nothing of dividing congressional districts according to race.  Enough said.

The 15th Amendment to the Constitution bars voting discrimination on account of race and gives Congress the power to enact laws to enforce the amendment. It gave Congress broad power as part of the Reconstruction Acts. In some ways the Reconstruction Amendments were among the broadest grants of power to Congress within the Constitution.

Drawing districts very much affects the power of an individual's vote; the art of gerrymandering is to minimize the potency of your opponents' votes while maximizing your sides' potency at the ballot. So discrimination in redistricting is akin to discrimination in voting. In 1965 the Voting Rights Act became law, and was promptly challenged in court. SCOTUS ruled that the VRA was a proper exercise of the power granted by the 15th Amendment.

So, I would conclude that the Constitution specifically granted Congress the power to require race as a factor in drawing districts.

[muon2]

I drew a plan that might result if the process is handled by a special master assigned by the court should there be no agreement. I take as assumptions that the court directs that 2 districts be drawn with majority black VAP, and that the cores of the 5 white-majority districts be maintained when possible. In this map all districts are within 100 of the ideal population and CD 6 and 7 are 50.2% and 50.1% black VAP respectively.

[muon2]

Congressional redistricting debate splinters Senate

(link - The State)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As mentioned later in the article, the GOP will do its best to find a plan to agree to so as to avoid having a three-judge Federal panel draw the lines and possibly giving the Democrats the chance to elect a second Representative.

The Senate will resume debate on redistricting on Monday.

I wonder if part of the public fight stems from a private recognition that any 6-1 plan will be vulnerable to a challenge. Black statewide VAP is 26.3%, which is equivalent to 1.84 congressional districts. The standard is "rough proportionality", but there's no clear guidance as to whether 1 district is roughly proportional to 1.84. Perhaps the lawyers internally are suggesting that it would be unlikely to be viewed that way.

Substitute "Hispanic" for "Black," and "California" for "South Carolina" and you have about 20 "Hispanic" VRA districts. Good Luck drawing that many seats. The reality is that Hispanics are fairly dispersed in California, and Blacks are fairly dispersed in the South, including South Carolina.

Strict proportionality would provide 17.54 districts in CA based on 33.1% Hispanic VAP. Last year I posted a CA map that met that standard with 18 Hispanic-majority districts. However, as has been noted in the IL thread, a 50% VAP generally will not be sufficient for Hispanics to elect a candidate of choice. If one uses a 60% standard, then one would roughly expect 5/6 the number of districts, or 14.6 districts out of 53. That same map has 15 districts meeting that threshold.

I would conclude that the minority populations are not so dispersed as to prevent reasonable districts from being drawn.

[muon2]

Ooh, pretty good. That's a map you could take the state to court with.

[muon2]

Senate passes surprise plan
Beaufort would anchor new congressional district

The State

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It's so hard to imagine these goings on in SC. It is inconceivable to think that a split among Dems in IL would result in a rogue group banding with the GOP to pass an alternate plan.

Then again, maybe I should be prepared to submit my credentials to the federal court in SC.

[muon2]

It's so hard to imagine these goings on in SC. It is inconceivable to think that a split among Dems in IL would result in a rogue group banding with the GOP to pass an alternate plan.

Then again, maybe I should be prepared to submit my credentials to the federal court in SC.

I can believe it.  A couple decades we had a similar squabble over reapportioning the General Assembly. The then minority Republicans and Black Democrats worked together to pass a plans that created more GOP districts and more Black majority districts. It worked, but with a couple of white Democrats who switched parties, the Republicans took control of the Assembly and have never relinquished it since. Ooops!

I don't think any three-judge panel plan is likely to create two safe Democratic seats, maybe one safe Dem and one lean Dem seat, but as I posted earlier, for most Republicans, this is about which Republican will be elected from the 7th district, especially since the area the 7th covers will determine who can run and what type of Republican will be likely to win. I haven't checked, but I'm willing to bet that some Republican State Senator from Beaufort County is hoping to run for Congress in 2012.

It still strikes me as quite dangerous, since I don't think the state GOP could seriously rule out a judicial requirement to create two black-majority districts. This could be a costly gamble at the national level.