US House Redistricting: South Carolina

[MattTX]

It's not at all difficult to add a second (relatively) compact African American VRA district in South Carolina. The map below has two districts with an outright majority Non-White Hispanic Single-Race African American VAP:

(I apparently can't post images because I don't have 20 posts, but you can look at the map/statistics on Swing State Project)

As a consequence of adding a second African American VRA district, all 5 incumbent Republicans are made very safe. The main beneficiaries of this are Joe Wilson and Mick Mulvaney - the African American %s in their districts decline considerably. Jim Clyburn would probably run in the 6th District, since he lives in Columbia, and the 7th District would almost certainly elect another African American Democrat.

The two African American VRA districts meet a very high legal population % threshold - it is by no means settled that a majority African American VAP is actually legally required, but this map meets even that standard. White Non-Hispanics are only 43% of the total population in each district.

The two African American VRA districts could be made more compact if any or all of the following are true:

1) Hispanic African Americans are allowed to count towards the African American %.
2) Multi-Racial people who are part African American are allowed to count towards the African American %.
3) African Americans only have to be a majority of the total population, rather than the VAP.
4) African Americans only have to be a plurality of the district.
5) All minority groups combined count towards VRA status, and all that is necessary is that the White Non-Hispanic population

I will be surprised if the DOJ or a group like the NAACP does not sue to force a second such district to be created under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act/the Gingles test.