What if Hillary wins despite losing the popular vote?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  What if Hillary wins despite losing the popular vote?
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Author Topic: What if Hillary wins despite losing the popular vote?  (Read 2078 times)
Seneca
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« on: September 17, 2016, 04:33:12 PM »

Here's the scenario

Election Night
Trump 47.4, 266
Clinton 46.7, 272
Johnson 4.2
Stein 1.4



CO, ME-02, NC, NE-02, NV and WI are close enough that recounts are ordered in all of those states. The recounts add marginally to Clinton's popular vote totals and flip NE-02 but have no effect on the outcome of the race. On December 15, the electors select Clinton as President-Elect.

How does the public respond? Given the Trump campaign's preemptive suggestions that the election might be rigged, it would seem that the spectacle of a minority-PV victory and multiple recounts might serve to "validate" those claims in the eyes of his supporters. Might we see a generalized breakdown of civil order, with mass shootings and bombings over the winter?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 02:07:53 PM »

Highly unlikely. In fact, the opposite scenario is a lot more likely.
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Seneca
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2016, 04:10:45 PM »

Highly unlikely. In fact, the opposite scenario is a lot more likely.

Democrats' advantage in the electoral college would suggest that a Democrat winning the EC with a slim minority of votes is more likely than a Republican doing the same.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2016, 07:57:20 PM »

This is the map I think we get:

274: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 46.3%
264: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 47.1%
Gary Johnson/William Weld - 5.5%
Others - 1.1%

I think that a 2020 GOP ticket of Cory Gardner/Brian Sandoval then proceeds to landslide. They could get to 400 over 138 with this map:
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AGA
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2016, 09:42:28 PM »


I think that a 2020 GOP ticket of Cory Gardner/Brian Sandoval then proceeds to landslide. They could get to 400 over 138 with this map:


Oregon, and maybe Washington, would most likely flip before Illinois and Hawaii in this scenario.
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Present
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2016, 10:15:00 PM »

I'd expect the midterms to be a Democrat's bloodbath. That would probably look something like this (give or take Minnesota).

This would be a GOP +14.
Then, twelve years is quite some time for a single party to control the white house. Unless, the Republicans barf out an even worse candidate that Trump, it would be an easy victory.
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uti2
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2016, 01:10:51 AM »

It means the Republicans will be winning in 2020 by a landslide because the public will see it as HRC stealing the election. Or Trump could form a new political party and pull a Ross Perot like move and form something that is like the Reform Party.

Just as it did for Bush 'stealing' the election?

I'd expect the midterms to be a Democrat's bloodbath. That would probably look something like this (give or take Minnesota).

This would be a GOP +14.
Then, twelve years is quite some time for a single party to control the white house. Unless, the Republicans barf out an even worse candidate that Trump, it would be an easy victory.

That's not what happened in 2002. You also need to keep in mind there's an ideological struggle, and the 'nevertrumpers' would be blamed in such a situation, that doesn't mean all those nationalist trump voters would back a 'globalist GOPe candidate', when 'the globalist GOPe refused to back them'.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2016, 09:18:52 AM »

Congressional Republicans would suck for four years and obstruct everything badly because “she has no mandate”. The Trumpster would go mad with “system rigged”.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2016, 02:35:42 PM »

I'd expect the midterms to be a Democrat's bloodbath. That would probably look something like this (give or take Minnesota).

This would be a GOP +14.
Then, twelve years is quite some time for a single party to control the white house. Unless, the Republicans barf out an even worse candidate that Trump, it would be an easy victory.

I think Menendez, Warren, and Murphy all lose before Heinrich. Cantwell might lose before Heinrich. Also, if Cardin and Carper retire, only Sarbanes, Markell, and Hunter Biden could keep their seats Lean/Likely D.
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