Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 21, 2014, 09:08:33 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Redistricting favoring big cities?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Redistricting favoring big cities?  (Read 1004 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5043
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« on: January 15, 2011, 06:50:36 pm »
Ignore

I haven't seen detailed numbers, but several people have said the 2010 census favors larger cities and urban areas.

Anybody else hear this?

I did notice that the population for D.C. jumped about 5% (the first increase in decades), but D.C. isn't a state.

Maybe it only appears to favor big cities because of the fact that the 2000 census deliberately skipped so many urban areas.

Also, if the redistricting doesn't accommodate the cities' growth, will there be a lawsuit to remedy it? And will the new census figures make some Republican-leaning states lean Democratic?
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13776
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2011, 07:10:06 pm »
Ignore

Many major cities have started seeing growth again. But it's usually still below the nationwide growth, and the growth seen in the suburbs, so they'll generally lose CDs again. You mention how DC grew 5%, the first time it's seen growth in a long time. Notable, but the nation grew 10%. If it were part of Maryland or Virginia, a DC-based district would have had to expand into the suburbs.
Logged

Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5043
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2011, 07:16:41 pm »
Ignore

Many major cities have started seeing growth again. But it's usually still below the nationwide growth, and the growth seen in the suburbs, so they'll generally lose CDs again. You mention how DC grew 5%, the first time it's seen growth in a long time. Notable, but the nation grew 10%. If it were part of Maryland or Virginia, a DC-based district would have had to expand into the suburbs.

Yes, but it's usually worse than this.

D.C. has pretty much a fixed boundary and was already pretty well built-up, but what about other big cities?

Somebody said that Louisville and Lexington together now make up a much larger proportion of Kentucky's population (even if you adjust Louisville for merging with the county). I'm wondering how close it'll be to bringing Kentucky back into the Democratic column.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13776
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2011, 07:21:33 pm »
Ignore

Many major cities have started seeing growth again. But it's usually still below the nationwide growth, and the growth seen in the suburbs, so they'll generally lose CDs again. You mention how DC grew 5%, the first time it's seen growth in a long time. Notable, but the nation grew 10%. If it were part of Maryland or Virginia, a DC-based district would have had to expand into the suburbs.

Yes, but it's usually worse than this.

D.C. has pretty much a fixed boundary and was already pretty well built-up, but what about other big cities?

Somebody said that Louisville and Lexington together now make up a much larger proportion of Kentucky's population (even if you adjust Louisville for merging with the county). I'm wondering how close it'll be to bringing Kentucky back into the Democratic column.

I highly doubt Louisville's pre-merger population has exceeded statewide growth.
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5917
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2011, 08:36:35 pm »
Ignore

I haven't seen detailed numbers, but several people have said the 2010 census favors larger cities and urban areas.

Anybody else hear this?

I did notice that the population for D.C. jumped about 5% (the first increase in decades), but D.C. isn't a state.

Maybe it only appears to favor big cities because of the fact that the 2000 census deliberately skipped so many urban areas.

Also, if the redistricting doesn't accommodate the cities' growth, will there be a lawsuit to remedy it? And will the new census figures make some Republican-leaning states lean Democratic?
Most are no longer declining, and 20 of the 50 largest are growing faster the country as a whole.  The following is based on census estimates projected forward to the 2010 census.  These estimates do include boundary changes through 2009.


1New York4.4%
2Los Angeles2.7%
3Chicago-1.6%
4Houston14.4%
5Phoenix19.8%
6Philadelphia2.5%
7San Antonio18.2%
8San Diego6.2%
9Dallas9.0%
10San Jose6.6%
11Detroit-3.0%
12San Francisco4.2%
13Jacksonville9.6%
14Indianapolis3.0%
15Austin16.0%
16Columbus, OH6.8%
17Fort Worth33.5%
18Charlotte23.0%
19Memphis-1.6%
20Boston7.7%
21Baltimore-1.3%
22El Paso10.2%
23Seattle8.7%
24Denver8.8%
25Nashville-Davidson10.2%
26Milwaukee1.5%
27Washington4.0%
28Las Vegas15.0%
29Louisville/Jefferson2.3%
30Portland6.3%
31Oklahoma City10.1%
32Tucson10.4%
33Atlanta27.7%
34Albuquerque17.5%
35Kansas City, MO8.9%
36Fresno11.0%
37Mesa13.3%
38Sacramento11.8%
39Long Beach-0.5%
40Omaha10.9%
41Virginia Beach1.5%
42Miami19.9%
43Cleveland-9.3%
44Oakland1.5%
45Raleigh37.2%
46Colorado Springs9.3%
47Tulsa-0.7%
48Minneapolis1.2%
49Arlington, TX12.2%
50Honolulu1.0%
Logged
jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5917
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2011, 08:43:48 pm »
Ignore

Among mid0sized cities, 26 of 50 are growing faster than the country.

51Wichita5.8%
52St. Louis2.0%
53New Orleans-27.5%
54Tampa12.5%
55Santa Ana0.1%
56Anaheim2.5%
57Cincinnati0.6%
58Bakersfield32.0%
59Aurora, CO15.8%
60Toledo0.4%
61Pittsburgh-6.1%
62Riverside12.8%
63Lexington-Fayette13.1%
64Stockton14.9%
65Corpus Christi4.6%
66Anchorage9.1%
67St. Paul-2.0%
68Newark1.7%
69Plano, TX18.0%
70Buffalo-7.2%
71Henderson, NV35.7%
72Fort Wayne1.2%
73Greensboro11.7%
74Lincoln11.1%
75Glendale, AZ10.8%
76Chandler, AZ33.7%
77St. Petersburg-1.5%
78Jersey City0.9%
79Scottsdale, AZ13.7%
80Orlando21.3%
81Madison, WI11.4%
82Norfolk-0.7%
83Birmingham-4.3%
84Winston-Salem13.0%
85Durham20.8%
86Laredo24.4%
87Lubbock12.3%
88Baton Rouge-0.6%
89North Las Vegas84.7%
90Chula Vista, CA23.3%
91Chesapeake, VA10.7%
92Gilbert, AZ81.6%
93Garland, TX1.4%
94Reno17.6%
95Hialeah, FL-3.9%
96Arlington, VA13.6%
97Irvine, CA37.1%
98Rochester, NY-5.2%
99Akron-4.2%
100Boise City4.4%
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5043
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2011, 08:46:43 pm »
Ignore

Wow! Look at Boston!

And Tulsa is one of few big cities to shrink?

Wow. Just wow.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5917
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2011, 08:51:51 pm »
Ignore

Mid-small 13 faster than country.

101Irving, TX5.6%
102Fremont, CA-0.7%
103Richmond, VA3.4%
104Spokane3.7%
105Modesto3.7%
106Montgomery0.5%
107Yonkers1.8%
108Des Moines0.0%
109Tacoma2.6%
110Shreveport-0.0%
111San Bernardino4.0%
112Fayetteville, NC-0.6%
113Glendale, CA0.1%
114Augusta-Richmond, GA-0.3%
115Grand Rapids-2.1%
116Huntington Beach, CA1.3%
117Mobile-2.0%
118Newport News6.7%
119Little Rock4.9%
120Moreno Valley, CA34.5%
121Columbus, GA2.2%
122Amarillo9.3%
123Fontana, CA24.5%
124Oxnard, CA7.8%
125Knoxville4.8%
126Fort Lauderdale7.6%
127Salt Lake City0.4%
128Worcester6.7%
129Huntsville, AL13.0%
130Tempe, AZ12.6%
131Brownsville, TX22.0%
132Jackson, MS-4.8%
133Overland Park, KS13.6%
134Aurora, IL16.5%
135Oceanside, CA5.4%
136Tallahassee13.8%
137Providence-1.7%
138Rancho Cucamonga, CA30.1%
139Ontario, CA7.0%
140Chattanooga8.6%
141Santa Clarita, CA7.1%
142Garden Grove, CA0.3%
143Vancouver, WA12.0%
144Grand Prairie, TX25.0%
145Peoria,AZ41.4%
146Sioux Falls23.5%
147Springfield, MO3.6%
148Santa Rosa, CA4.6%
149Rockford4.0%
150Springfield, MA3.1%
Logged
jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5917
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2011, 11:10:37 pm »
Ignore

Wow! Look at Boston!

And Tulsa is one of few big cities to shrink?

Wow. Just wow.
Tulsa lost 12K between 2000 and 2005 and gained 8K from 2005 to 2009.  The projection assumed constant change from 2000 to 2009, so it will be low.  Tulsa is pretty hemmed in by suburbs which all grew strongly (Broken Arrow, Jenks, Bixby, Owasso, Glenpool)

Logged
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73035
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2011, 11:12:29 pm »
Ignore

So Cleveland is even worse off than Detroit?
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
danny
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1104
Israel


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2011, 11:41:00 pm »
Ignore

Many major cities have started seeing growth again. But it's usually still below the nationwide growth, and the growth seen in the suburbs, so they'll generally lose CDs again. You mention how DC grew 5%, the first time it's seen growth in a long time. Notable, but the nation grew 10%. If it were part of Maryland or Virginia, a DC-based district would have had to expand into the suburbs.

Yes, but it's usually worse than this.

D.C. has pretty much a fixed boundary and was already pretty well built-up, but what about other big cities?

Somebody said that Louisville and Lexington together now make up a much larger proportion of Kentucky's population (even if you adjust Louisville for merging with the county). I'm wondering how close it'll be to bringing Kentucky back into the Democratic column.

Even if the cities were to grow faster than the suburbs that wouldn't necessarily make more democratic. people probably won't vote for a different party just because they moved, it could be that people that moved to the city were predisposed to vote for the democrats even before they moved to the cities. Conversely, it could be Republicans moving from the suburbs but they will just keep voting republican which would simply make the cities more republican.
Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13776
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2011, 12:39:07 am »
Ignore

Many of the faster-growing cities are sprawling ones that include what many of us would consider suburbs, anyway. So it ultimately comes down to where we've drawn the arbitrary lines on the map. At a glance, though, Atlanta's growth seems fairly impressive, though. But considering its large land area, its total population isn't terribly high, IMO... And I'm not sure how much they annexed.

Seattle's growth has really picked up in the past few years, while it grew quite slowly during the boom years.
Logged

incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73035
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2011, 12:54:29 am »
Ignore

Sprawl in Atlanta is so bad that the two black majority districts will probably end up being roughly the same size as Newt Gingrich's old seat. Even the black areas are sprawly messes.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Bacon King
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16611
United States Minor Outlying Islands


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2011, 02:22:14 am »
Ignore

Sprawl in Atlanta is so bad that the two black majority districts will probably end up being roughly the same size as Newt Gingrich's old seat. Even the black areas are sprawly messes.

Dekalb and Clayton counties: African American suburbs (mostly).

Douglas is starting to trend that way too.
Logged

BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 73035
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2011, 02:31:46 am »
Ignore

Something I was thinking about a few days ago is that Cynthia McKinney haters should be quite thankful she represented a middle-class suburban black district instead of inner-city Atlanta. She could easily still be around if she was from that district. The fact that that district elected the very respectable John Lewis and McKinney's elected her for so long is quite odd compared to the pattern of where the craziest black reps tend to be come from.

Of course in South Florida now you have the slums electing a classy lady with great taste in fashion and the middle-class suburban black neighborhoods electing a guy who was impeached by the same body he now serves in.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13090


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2011, 11:05:31 am »
Ignore

Atlanta's boundaries are quite small and the city itself achieved a large population decades ago before falling as people moved out to the suburbs. The recent population growth is a result of successful in-fill in the city.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13776
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2011, 03:24:41 pm »
Ignore

Atlanta's boundaries are quite small and the city itself achieved a large population decades ago before falling as people moved out to the suburbs. The recent population growth is a result of successful in-fill in the city.

132 square miles is pretty large. And I know they did some annexations, but it might not have been very many people. Anyway, it will be interesting to see where the growth was when we get census tract results.
Logged

Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13090


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2011, 04:57:04 pm »
Ignore

For some reason, I though Atlanta had peaked at a number well north of its current population back around 1970, but I'm wrong.
Logged
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15484


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2011, 07:27:12 pm »
Ignore

In a roundabout way, perhaps. Most inner-city districts are D+10+ and have to be expanded. Their reps can easily afford to take in some GOP precints in the burbs without any problems. However, high growth suburban districts are, on average, more marginal for the GOP. Depending on how lines are drawn, GOP reps, especially those who were just swept in this year, may find themselves in less friendly territory. If the Dems do get a boost from redistricting, it will be the big city pols with the seniority and clout.
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I don't want my women talking to people
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines