US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[krazen1211]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

[Verily]

What're the racial numbers for MA-07? It's a pretty obvious racial gerrymander...

Not sure why they didn't try to work Fall River into the Cape District. It's definitely possible.

[Former Moderate]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

[BigSkyBob]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

And, you could draw lines at random and get a 8-1 map.

[Verily]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

And, you could draw lines at random and get a 8-1 map.

Not really, unless the "random" lines were very lucky for the Republicans. 8-0-1 would be more likely, although 9-0 is still more likely on random lines.

[Former Moderate]

As expected, Keating confirmed that he will seek re-election in the Cape Cod-based MA-09 -- no Keating vs. Lynch primary is on the horizon.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I. What.

What in God's name even is this sh**t.

Okay, I'm glad they kept the Pioneer Valley together, but why am I in a district with Worcester.

[Torie]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

[Gravis Marketing]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

No matter what you do. you start with 1 district based in Worcester, 1 based in Springfield, 1 based in Essex County and including either Lawrence or Dem cities on the north shore, and one based on Cape Cod that strays into Democratic territory to get those final 100,000 people. Of what remains, it's hard to draw a Republican district that isn't a gerrymander.

The threshold for competitiveness for Republicans in Mass. is unnaturally high because of how weak the bench is. MA-10 was competitive in 2010 but they nominated one of two lame candidates.

[BigSkyBob]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

And, you could draw lines at random and get a 8-1 map.

Not really, unless the "random" lines were very lucky for the Republicans.

No matter how you spin it, you just answered, "Yes, 8-1 is in fact possible in a random redistricting."

8-0-1 would be more likely, although 9-0 is still more likely on random lines.

[Former Moderate]

This new Cape Cod district is very interesting. There are a lot of changes between it an the existing district, which suggests some modicum of opportunity for Republicans. Smartly, though, Democrats drew State. Sen. Hedlund (R) out of the seat, ensuring the strongest Republican challenger stays out of the race.

That's not to say there's no opportunity for the GOP. There are a handful of Republican office holders in the new MA-09, like State Rep. Susan Giffords and Plymouth Co. Sheriff Joseph McDonald. And, as recently as 2010, the GOP won a Governor's Council district that looks almost exactly like the new congressional district.

No matter how you spin it, you just answered, "Yes, 8-1 is in fact possible in a random redistricting."

In the same way that 8-1 is possible with the current set of lines just released.

[krazen1211]

Obama McCain, PVI (inflated due to Kerry)

1: 64-33, D+14
2: 61-35, D+12
3: 59-39, D+8
4: 60-37, D+11
5: 62-32, D+15
6: 56-41, D+6
7: 82-16, D+30
8: 57-41, D+8
9: 57-41, D+7

2010


1st District (Neal)
Coakley 49-49%
Patrick 51-37%

2nd District (McGovern)
Brown 54-44%
Patrick 47-43%

3rd District (Tsongas)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 48-44%

4th District (Frank vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-45%
Patrick 46-46%

5th District (Markey)
Coakley 55-44%
Patrick 54-39%

6th District (Tierney)
Brown 58-41%
Baker 50-41%

7th District (Capuano)
Coakley 73-26%
Patrick 73-23%

8th District (Lynch vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-44%
Patrick 44-43%

9th District (Open or Keating?)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 45-45%

[Gravis Marketing]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

No matter what you do. you start with 1 district based in Worcester, 1 based in Springfield, 1 based in Essex County and including either Lawrence or Dem cities on the north shore, and one based on Cape Cod that strays into Democratic territory to get those final 100,000 people. Of what remains, it's hard to draw a Republican district that isn't a gerrymander.

The threshold for competitiveness for Republicans in Mass. is unnaturally high because of how weak the bench is. MA-10 was competitive in 2010 but they nominated one of two lame candidates.

Thinking about this a little further, within those constraints you could do a swap among the new MA-4 and MA-5 to make MA-4 much more suburban/exurban and throw Newton and Brookline in with an urban or inner suburban district. But you'd still have Fall River in the district.

[Gravis Marketing]

Keating is running in the 9th district. He announced this morning he was moving to "the home he and his wife have owned for 17 years" on Cape Cod. This is his second move in two years to run for Congress.

To put these numbers in perspective, Brown is from the 4th district. Baker is from the 6th district. The leading R candidate in the 6th district would be Richard Tisei, who is openly gay, but also viable against a weak Dem like Tierney.

Obama McCain, PVI (inflated due to Kerry)

1: 64-33, D+14
2: 61-35, D+12
3: 59-39, D+8
4: 60-37, D+11
5: 62-32, D+15
6: 56-41, D+6
7: 82-16, D+30
8: 57-41, D+8
9: 57-41, D+7

2010


1st District (Neal)
Coakley 49-49%
Patrick 51-37%

2nd District (McGovern)
Brown 54-44%
Patrick 47-43%

3rd District (Tsongas)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 48-44%

4th District (Frank vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-45%
Patrick 46-46%

5th District (Markey)
Coakley 55-44%
Patrick 54-39%

6th District (Tierney)
Brown 58-41%
Baker 50-41%

7th District (Capuano)
Coakley 73-26%
Patrick 73-23%

8th District (Lynch vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-44%
Patrick 44-43%

9th District (Open or Keating?)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 45-45%

[Vasall des Midas]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

If a non partisan judge drew the map, there would still be no competitive CD's in Mass? 

Not unless he decided that one should be drawn. There's really only one way to draw one, outside of 2010 conditions.

[Verily]

Bump for Frank retiring. Thoughts on whether MA-04 will be redrawn more reasonably?

[Gravis Marketing]

Bump for Frank retiring. Thoughts on whether MA-04 will be redrawn more reasonably?

Patrick already signed the map into law. It's a done deal and changing the 4th now would wreak havoc with other districts.

[muon2]

Bump for Frank retiring. Thoughts on whether MA-04 will be redrawn more reasonably?

Patrick already signed the map into law. It's a done deal and changing the 4th now would wreak havoc with other districts.

As it turned out after all they could have drawn a Bristol+Brockton district, and left Quincy with Cape Cod in the other SE district.

[Gravis Marketing]

Barney Frank had a fun interview in the Globe today where he bashed the legislature for protecting Ed Markey and Steve Lynch and letting everyone else go hand, and called out Markey for lobbying to make his district better when Frank would have liked some more help.

[krazen1211]

How many of these districts would be competitive?

Numbers intentionally withheld.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I can't see your map/image, krazen.

[krazen1211]

Hmph.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2wlrmva.png

[asexual trans victimologist]

At a glance, purple seems competitive. Green, maybe, although there's enough of a Democratic machine in Springfield to generate candidates for such a district reasonably reliably. Fall River and New Bedford mean that red probably isn't, but I'd think that's your next best bet.

EDIT: Teal would probably be competitive under certain circumstances. It doesn't look too different from what John Tierney actually has but might be slightly less Democratic. We all of course know what is going on with dear Mr Tierney right now.

[Vasall des Midas]

2 sort of, none really - teal as pointed out, and purple is about as safe R as can be drawn in Massachusetts. The others are all very safe D.

[krazen1211]

Boston white liberals try to rack and pack minorities into a single district.


In a letter to the council, which approved a redistricting plan on a 7-6 vote after months of wrangling, Menino singled out District 4 as a source “of particular concern.” In that district, which spans parts of Dorchester and Mattapan, voters of color would constitute 95 percent of the electorate.

Yancey presented a politically progressive map that would have created an incumbent-free district where either a Latino or Asian would have likely prevailed. Yancey has argued that while so-called minorities make up 53 percent of the city’s population, they represent only 26 percent of district seats on the council.




Interesting. White liberals want to claim an excess of the seats.