US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[jimrtex]

Just for show... I can draw the state too. This is supposed to be a makes-sense-on-the-ground, good governance map.



I think these seats - barring the yellow one, obviously - make a lot of sense while still being broadly based on the current ones (the old third abolished); I'd like to have pointers for any obvious mistakes. And for who'd probably run where in the entirely hypothetical scenario of a similar map being enacted.
Three towns split - Boston, Holyoke, I forget what north Middlesex suburb.

I think you need to get rid of the southern tail of Middlesex North.  Bring Worcester City-Springfield a bit further east.  Is Massachusetts West (Berkshires-Connecticut Valley-Worcester) all the way to the Connecticut River.  Then bring Norfolk further west, and Middlesex North further south.  Rotate New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton; Plymouth, Cape Cod, and Islands; and Norfolk counter-clockwise.  If you are going to take part of Boston into Norfolk, why not Brookline?

[minionofmidas]

Ah, comment!

Just for show... I can draw the state too. This is supposed to be a makes-sense-on-the-ground, good governance map.



I think these seats - barring the yellow one, obviously - make a lot of sense while still being broadly based on the current ones (the old third abolished); I'd like to have pointers for any obvious mistakes. And for who'd probably run where in the entirely hypothetical scenario of a similar map being enacted.
Three towns split - Boston, Holyoke, I forget what north Middlesex suburb.

I think you need to get rid of the southern tail of Middlesex North.  Bring Worcester City-Springfield a bit further east.  Is Massachusetts West (Berkshires-Connecticut Valley-Worcester) all the way to the Connecticut River.  Then bring Norfolk further west, and Middlesex North further south.  Rotate New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton; Plymouth, Cape Cod, and Islands; and Norfolk counter-clockwise.  If you are going to take part of Boston into Norfolk, why not Brookline?

Can't very well bring Worcester-Springfield further east. Well, you can, splitting near suburbs of Springfield off to bring somewhat further removed suburbs of Worcester in, but I don't see the sense behind that (Though the current second begins at Springfield proper and ends just west of Worcester proper. ) - not that I can't be convinced otherwise. You'd need to state your case.
What you could very easily do, obviously, is split the 1st and 2nd here east-west, and then exchange that ugly tail for Leominster. And, yeah, alternatively you could easily get that tail  into the Norfolk district (and I assume the rotate part was about getting the 4th out of Norfolk County? Also possible.) in exchange for areas in southern Middlesex County - the reason I didn't is basically that I didn't think the area belongs with a Boston district either.
Re Brookline... because it would mean an additional split town? (Or, even if you put all of it in the Norfolk seat again, and add, say, Cambridge to the Boston seat, then you're pushing the grey seat out.)

[minionofmidas]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

You have put the Berkshires and most of the Pioneer Valley in with the Springfield area. From a community of interest standpoint they are far more similar to northern Worcester County as far east as Leominster and Fitchburg, whereas Springfield is the core of its own little area that kind of spills around the southern border of the state. In this respect the current map does very well (except for Northampton and Hadley being in the Springfield district, which is truly bizarre).

[jimrtex]

Ah, comment!

Just for show... I can draw the state too. This is supposed to be a makes-sense-on-the-ground, good governance map.



I think these seats - barring the yellow one, obviously - make a lot of sense while still being broadly based on the current ones (the old third abolished); I'd like to have pointers for any obvious mistakes. And for who'd probably run where in the entirely hypothetical scenario of a similar map being enacted.
Three towns split - Boston, Holyoke, I forget what north Middlesex suburb.

I think you need to get rid of the southern tail of Middlesex North.  Bring Worcester City-Springfield a bit further east.  Is Massachusetts West (Berkshires-Connecticut Valley-Worcester) all the way to the Connecticut River.  Then bring Norfolk further west, and Middlesex North further south.  Rotate New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton; Plymouth, Cape Cod, and Islands; and Norfolk counter-clockwise.  If you are going to take part of Boston into Norfolk, why not Brookline?

Can't very well bring Worcester-Springfield further east. Well, you can, splitting near suburbs of Springfield off to bring somewhat further removed suburbs of Worcester in, but I don't see the sense behind that (Though the current second begins at Springfield proper and ends just west of Worcester proper. ) - not that I can't be convinced otherwise. You'd need to state your case.
What you could very easily do, obviously, is split the 1st and 2nd here east-west, and then exchange that ugly tail for Leominster. And, yeah, alternatively you could easily get that tail  into the Norfolk district (and I assume the rotate part was about getting the 4th out of Norfolk County? Also possible.) in exchange for areas in southern Middlesex County - the reason I didn't is basically that I didn't think the area belongs with a Boston district either.
Re Brookline... because it would mean an additional split town? (Or, even if you put all of it in the Norfolk seat again, and add, say, Cambridge to the Boston seat, then you're pushing the grey seat out.)

I don't know the district numbers.  That is why I used the names of the district.  Worcester City-Springfield is going to be extremely tightly drawn, so I have no problem excluding towns adjacent to Springfield, especially west of the river.  I wasn't proposing going all the way to the Worcester-Norfolk line, but just another layer of towns due south of Worcester city.  I can also rationalize it on the basis of including more of the Mass Pike which passes south of Worcester.

I am suggesting that New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton include more of inland Plymouth County, rather than slopping over into Norfolk County.  By including the ocean areas the maps make the districts appear more compact.  The Elizabeth Islands have a really tiny population, but including the waters on either side make it look fairly substantial.  So Plymouth, Cape Cod, and the Islands is really a long district following the coast and jumping to Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  So it is no problem to bring it a bit west.  Does it include Quincy?

Why does Boston have to be split?  Couldn't Chelsea or Revere be moved into Essex if necessary?

[minionofmidas]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

You have put the Berkshires and most of the Pioneer Valley in with the Springfield area. From a community of interest standpoint they are far more similar to northern Worcester County as far east as Leominster and Fitchburg, whereas Springfield is the core of its own little area that kind of spills around the southern border of the state.

Yeah, the reasons why are discussed above.

I am suggesting that New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton include more of inland Plymouth County, rather than slopping over into Norfolk County.  By including the ocean areas the maps make the districts appear more compact.  The Elizabeth Islands have a really tiny population, but including the waters on either side make it look fairly substantial.  So Plymouth, Cape Cod, and the Islands is really a long district following the coast and jumping to Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  So it is no problem to bring it a bit west.  Does it include Quincy?

Not in my map, and it should not. (The current district there does, though, for which Bill Keating is quite thankful.) It includes Braintree in my map, which is really one suburb too close already. If you want to push the red seat south, you need to push the purple seat north. And vice versa.

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I haven't checked the Norfolk (sans Brookline) side, but there's no alignment of Suffolk/Middlesex towns with Boston, that's within 1000 of the ideal population (the target range I'm using on these maps). At least none that's remotely reasonable, and I've looked at options that included Waterbury (but not at any that went beyond that and included none of the Suffolk towns... maybe there is something there. Probably not though.) Much more reasonable to split Boston than to randomly lop off two of precincts from Revere.
The Boston split in the second map is also fairly neat and made it possible to include Brookline with Cambridge etc, of course.

I don't know the district numbers.

Blue is 1st, green 2nd, purple 3rd, red 4th, yellow 5th, cyan 6th, grey 7th, lavender 8th, teal 9th. Standard DRA colors, and also the current district they roughly resemble (apart from the redesign out west in the second map, and the fact that the old 3rd of Worcester city and random points east is abolished, and the 10th renumbered the 3rd.)

[jimrtex]

I am suggesting that New Bedford-Fall River-Brockton include more of inland Plymouth County, rather than slopping over into Norfolk County.  By including the ocean areas the maps make the districts appear more compact.  The Elizabeth Islands have a really tiny population, but including the waters on either side make it look fairly substantial.  So Plymouth, Cape Cod, and the Islands is really a long district following the coast and jumping to Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  So it is no problem to bring it a bit west.  Does it include Quincy?

Not in my map, and it should not. (The current district there does, though, for which Bill Keating is quite thankful.) It includes Braintree in my map, which is really one suburb too close already. If you want to push the red seat south, you need to push the purple seat north. And vice versa.

I think that shifting the purple district north is preferable.  You are already into the suburbs, and I don't think there is much Norfolk identity to worry about.  People who grew up in Quincy will tend to move south, while those from Dedham and Newton will move west.  Cape Cod and the islands can be considered hyperburbs of Boston, rather than fishing towns.  The rose district has a pretty clear identity, and I think it would be better to go east than north to get it up to the ideal population.

[minionofmidas]

There's more people in Quincy than in the entire red share of Norfolk. It took me a moment to find an alignment of towns to prevent a split. Quincy and Milton to purple, Holbrook to teal; the red parts north of the Bristol line, Mansfield and North Attleboro to teal, Avon to red; Abington, Hanson, Halifax, Plympton, Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Middleborough to red, Mattapoisett to purple. I don't like it very much...

[minionofmidas]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

You have put the Berkshires and most of the Pioneer Valley in with the Springfield area. From a community of interest standpoint they are far more similar to northern Worcester County as far east as Leominster and Fitchburg, whereas Springfield is the core of its own little area that kind of spills around the southern border of the state. In this respect the current map does very well (except for Northampton and Hadley being in the Springfield district, which is truly bizarre).

It is just about possible to keep two separate districts west of Worcester... it'd have to look something like this (remaining districts not drawn)



Can anybody really want that? I don't think so. Well, the current Representatives for the first, second and third districts maybe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here's my take on a "fair" map ignoring current lines and incumbents:



MA-01: Not much to see here, super-safe D seat. Home of Ampere. Actually it's also home to Neal and Olver, I'd assume the older than dirt Olver would retire.
MA-02: This is what a proper Worcester-based seat looks like. No real chance of it flipping. McGovern wins here.
MA-03: Some relatively Republican areas here but at best it's a fool's gold type district, not visible very well on the map but it does include Framingham. That and Lowell will keep in the D area, though there could be an interesting primary fight on that basis. For now though Tsongas lives here and wouldn't be going anywhere.
MA-04: I removed the county borders because counties don't mean much in MA, but this runs almost concurrent with Essex County. Marginally more D than Tierney's current seat, and Tierney no doubt hangs on.
MA-05: This one I'm not too happy about, because it basically takes some leftover rural areas and shoves them into a Boston-based district, but best I could do for now. This district includes Somerville and Charlestown. It's quite different from Capuano's current seat, but he lives there and is definitely a safe seat. Markey lives here too, so an interesting primary battle could happen.
MA-06: Most of Boston plus Cambridge, Brookline, Belmont and Watertown. 57.3% White VAP. Partisan lean is obvious. Stephen Lynch lives here, but he won't be winning the primary. I never liked him anyway.
MA-07: Newton, Waltham, a sliver of Boston, Milton, Quiny and some rural areas. Both Frank and Keating live here, but wisdom seems to be Frank is retiring.
MA-08: The southeast shore to Attleboro. This is a legitimately winnable for the GOP open seat, though them blowing it is always possible, plus the existence of Brockton.
MA-09: New open seat that should be drawn from any community of interest standpoint. The cape plus the islands plus New Bedford and Fall River. Definitely a Dem seat, but could have an interesting primary fight.

It wasn't deliberate but worth noting that this map does screw over a particularly obnoxious demographic I'm known to not be too fond of.

The South Boston area Irish Catholics of course. Known for social conservatism, racism, anger at apostates and support for the IRA, they end up in a seat full of minorities and Brookline and Cambridge liberals, and their boy in Congress goes down.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Can anybody really want that? I don't think so. Well, the current Representatives for the first, second and third districts maybe.

As a native of Franklin County, and current resident of Hampshire County, I for one think that that looks fairly okay, though I confess that the same things that make me attuned to CoE distinctions in the area also mean that I'm not exactly the most objective judge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The issue is how the Worcester seat runs down the border like that. OK it might do that now but that doesn't make it a good or logical thing.

The only real logical district for Worcester is just one in the middle of the state, any other way you end up with some odd combination, the current set up which keeps Springfield separate from the Amherst area and rural western Mass is perhaps excusable with 10 districts but with 9 you've kind of crossed the threshold where it's not reasonable anymore. Not that I expect it to go away though since it appears like the 5th is the one being eyed for elimination.

[jimrtex]

There's more people in Quincy than in the entire red share of Norfolk. It took me a moment to find an alignment of towns to prevent a split. Quincy and Milton to purple, Holbrook to teal; the red parts north of the Bristol line, Mansfield and North Attleboro to teal, Avon to red; Abington, Hanson, Halifax, Plympton, Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Middleborough to red, Mattapoisett to purple. I don't like it very much...

Aren't the Bridgewater's Brockton suburbs?  If you leave Milton in the teal, how much north of Plymouth/Bay Colony boundary would you need to go with the red, with towns adjacent to Attleboro and Brockton preferred. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There's more people in Quincy than in the entire red share of Norfolk. It took me a moment to find an alignment of towns to prevent a split. Quincy and Milton to purple, Holbrook to teal; the red parts north of the Bristol line, Mansfield and North Attleboro to teal, Avon to red; Abington, Hanson, Halifax, Plympton, Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Middleborough to red, Mattapoisett to purple. I don't like it very much...

Aren't the Bridgewater's Brockton suburbs?  If you leave Milton in the teal, how much north of Plymouth/Bay Colony boundary would you need to go with the red, with towns adjacent to Attleboro and Brockton preferred. 

It sounds funny to hear someone refer to a "suburb of Brockton."

[minionofmidas]

Can anybody really want that? I don't think so. Well, the current Representatives for the first, second and third districts maybe.

As a native of Franklin County, and current resident of Hampshire County, I for one think that that looks fairly okay, though I confess that the same things that make me attuned to CoE distinctions in the area also mean that I'm not exactly the most objective judge.

The issue is how the Worcester seat runs down the border like that. OK it might do that now but that doesn't make it a good or logical thing.

The only real logical district for Worcester is just one in the middle of the state.

It doesn't need to sneak down into Bristol County, of course. It could run straight east into the Boston suburbs instead. But yeah - any map that keeps a Springfield seat and a Berkshires/Leominster seat screws over Worcester really, really big time. That was true even with ten seats and 2000 figures, it's even truer now.

What is possible is to redraw this map so that the boundary between the first and second runs more nw-se rather than n-s.

[minionofmidas]

There's more people in Quincy than in the entire red share of Norfolk. It took me a moment to find an alignment of towns to prevent a split. Quincy and Milton to purple, Holbrook to teal; the red parts north of the Bristol line, Mansfield and North Attleboro to teal, Avon to red; Abington, Hanson, Halifax, Plympton, Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Middleborough to red, Mattapoisett to purple. I don't like it very much...

If you leave Milton in the teal, how much north of Plymouth/Bay Colony boundary would you need to go with the red?  

I highlighted the part that answers your question.

Though I notice there's a much easier - though not pretty either - solution. Quincy to purple, Braintree to teal, Holbrook and Avon to red; Norfolk/Worcester parts of red to teal; Abington, Whitman and the Bridgewaters to red; Lakeville and Mattapoisett to purple.

[minionofmidas]

And here's Springfield-Berkshire versus Worcester-Franklin-Hampshire:

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, just yesterday, I played with the redistricting app for the first time. It's a heck of a lot of fun to use -- I'm sure I'll wind up making hundreds of maps in the near future.

For my first effort, I took a shot at drawing Massachusetts. I wasn't sure what I wanted to do at first, but in the end, this wound up being a very GOP-friendly map. Not in that it was specifically drawn to favor Republicans, but in that it winds up screwing over a lot of Democrats by virtue of un-Gerrymandering.

If an independent commission was tasked with redistricting MA without regard to current incumbents, I feel they might come up with something very similar to this.

District 1 is a Berkshires district modified to now include Springfield. It is very hard to justify a non-gerrymandered map that allows a Western Mass district without a "major" city anchor. Both Rep. Olver and Neal are pushed together in this district.

District 2 is a Worcester-based district. It takes in the city and much of the county, as well as a handful of Hampden County towns that share similar political interests. McGovern would be the representative here.

District 3 is a "new" district. If I had to name it, I'd call it "Metrowest" -- these are largely old suburban towns, combined with some quieter areas down south. These towns have a genuine common interest but are frequently shattered in a million pieces to favor politicians from outside the area. There's no incumbent, though presumably, Markey could move here.

District 4 is what Barney Frank's district should be -- a Bristol County-based district that takes in the minority-heavy mill towns of Southern Massachusetts. Barney lives in Brookline and is thus carved out of the district, but because he represents much of this territory anyway, he'd be a natural fit for holding it.

In District 5, I did what no redistricting commission is likely to do -- I saved Niki Tsongas. It's the northern equivalent of District 4, taking in a number of old industrial towns. I thought that a district that combined Fitchburg, Lowell, and Woburn was an interesting concept.

District 6 is easily recognizable as Tierney's current district. It's a North Shore district based around Lynn and Salem. Very little changed here, save for a geographical shrinkage necessary to meet the one-man-one-vote quota.

District 7 is a mix of old CD-07 and 08. I molded the new district around the inner Boston suburbs, combining areas that felt like a natural "fit" with each other: Somerville, Cambridge, Medford, the more urban part of Waltham, Newton, Brighton (Boston), Back Bay (Boston), and Brookline. It is a very "Whole Foods liberal" kind of district. Capuano would represent this district though he's likely too conservative for it; if he chased after the US Senate instead, it'd be a perfect fit for Markey.

District 8 is a minority-heavy effort that takes in much of Boston. It also grabs some other minority-heavy territory in Suffolk, and gobbles up Quincy and Milton. Lynch would be the Rep here. My only problem with the district is that it could use a few extra minorities -- white VAP hovers just over 50%.

District 9 is the South Shore district. Keating technically lives outside it, but obviously represents most of it in the current congress. It's northern terminus is Braintree; it takes in far more of Plymouth County than the current version.



I'm curious to see what you all think of it. 



And a close up of Boston:

[TJ in Oregon]

This map might screw over Lynch in particular and I'm not sure if the Dems want to do that or not. His current district is 79% white, so packing all the minorities here may present a problem. It may result in an expensive primary. On the other hand, the Dems may want to get rid of him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His minority would be the largest one though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If they got rid of Lynch, he'd probably run for Senate. I'm not sure if Democrats would want that.

[jimrtex]

Avon is part of the Brockton NETMA division so that is fine.

[minionofmidas]

Avon is part of the Brockton NETMA division so that is fine.

Yah, the nonpretty issue is with Quincy and Braintree. I think that's just barely not land-contiguous, actually.

Avon just gets juggled around a lot between maps because it's the only nicely tiny township for miles around.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Avon just gets juggled around a lot between maps because it's the only nicely tiny township for miles around.

I can't tell Avon and Stoughton apart the way I can Avon and Quincy, Avon and Brockton, or Avon and Braintree. To me, any district, congressional or state senate, should combine the two for community-of-interest reasons. Heck, it's original name was East Stoughton.

[jimrtex]

Avon is part of the Brockton NETMA division so that is fine.

Yah, the nonpretty issue is with Quincy and Braintree. I think that's just barely not land-contiguous, actually.

The Quincy (Fore River) Shipyard is on the the Quincy-Weymouth line.  There is a bridge between Quincy and Weymouth on 3A which is the more coastal route to Cape Cod.

I bet most of the population of the district is north of Kingston and Duxbury.