US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Earlier today, I submitted a proposed map to the Massachusetts Legislative Commission on Redistricting. In it, I suggested that a district be created for the Metrowest region. The area between I-495 and I-95 (Route 128) is a genuine community of interest -- one currently split between five districts in the existing 2000 draw.

The need for such a district is clear, as no single congressman currently lives in the purple area. Or really, anywhere near it.

Though it is likely more Republican than any Democrat would prefer, the odds of the district electing a GOP congresscritter are still next to zero.

[Napoleon]

What is the PVI?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

What would that do to your CD4?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

What would that do to your CD4?

My new CD04 is less Democratic because it doesn't take in Brookline or Newton, but it's more Republican because it doesn't take in as many Plymouth County towns at the old one did. You've probably looking at a wash.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I note that you've put Frank, Markey, and Capuano in the same district. I'm okay with this, mainly because it makes sense from a community of interest standpoint and Frank could easily just move to New Bedford, where somewhat strangely he's more popular than he is in his own area anyway (or, at least, just as much so), and Markey to Natick or someplace (or he could retire, but I don't particularly care to lose Markey).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I note that you've put Frank, Markey, and Capuano in the same district. I'm okay with this, mainly because it makes sense from a community of interest standpoint and Frank could easily just move to New Bedford, where somewhat strangely he's more popular than he is in his own area anyway (or, at least, just as much so), and Markey to Natick or someplace (or he could retire, but I don't particularly care to lose Markey).

While there's no constitutional mandate for them to do so, Frank could move south into CD4; Markey moves to CD3; and Capuano stays in CD7. Keating may need to move too -- his hometown is split between CD8 and 9, but we could easily play around with the lines to save him the trouble (in exchange for a higher deviation -- currently, it's 4 voters).

Olver and Neal are put in the same CD in the west, but really, according to Sen. Rosenberg, that's a foregone conclusion.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Today, I gave testimony to the MA Joint Committee on Redistricting. I submitted a proposed redistricting plan for Massachusetts to the committee. I fear it's a bit too common sense to be appreciated, but someone needs to be out there advocating for a decent set of lines.

This is pretty much the only other place in the world that would care what I have to say on the topic, so ... for your reading enjoyment, there it is.

[Brittain33]

Bravo for doing more than just bitching about things on the web.

[Brittain33]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

Well. You know what I meant there, anyway.

[Brittain33]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

Well. You know what I meant there, anyway.

Sorry, I got bumped on the head by a big chunk of my property value falling off.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

Well. You know what I meant there, anyway.

Sorry, I got bumped on the head by a big chunk of my property value falling off.

Go to bed early, and fall 2018 will be here before you know it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Got a phone call from a Democratic State Rep (on the Committee) about the plan I submitted. He was remarkably enthusiastic about something we both knew wouldn't happen.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Got a phone call from a Democratic State Rep (on the Committee) about the plan I submitted. He was remarkably enthusiastic about something we both knew wouldn't happen.

Was he from the Metrowest? Perhaps he's looking to become a Congressman.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Come on, man, you know better than to suggest that the VRA is going to require a 48% white, 52% non-white district with no minority making up more than 20% of that 52%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Come on, man, you know better than to suggest that the VRA is going to require a 48% white, 52% non-white district with no minority making up more than 20% of that 52%.

Shhhh.

(I'd be surprised if the final map doesn't have a minority-majority district, in any case. It's too easy to draw without significantly impacting Democratic chances elsewhere. Minority populations grew way faster than the white population did.)

Got a phone call from a Democratic State Rep (on the Committee) about the plan I submitted. He was remarkably enthusiastic about something we both knew wouldn't happen.

Was he from the Metrowest? Perhaps he's looking to become a Congressman.

He's from Arlington.

[redcommander]

Come on, man, you know better than to suggest that the VRA is going to require a 48% white, 52% non-white district with no minority making up more than 20% of that 52%.

Isn't Capuano's district currently drawn to satisfy VRA? I believe Whites are only 48% in it.

[Brittain33]

No, it just happened that way when you split Boston into a conservative Dem largely Irish-American district and then put everything else in with Cambridge and Somerville. There was nothing related to VRA in its mapping.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's rather easy to create a minority-majority district in Massachusetts without otherwise endangering any incumbents. In fact, just about any district that includes Jamaica Plain, Ashmont, Mattapan, and Dorchester is going to wind up being minority-majority or close to it.

[krazen1211]

Lynch and Keating.

http://www.dotnews.com/litdrop/2011/rep-lynch-v-rep-keating-2012

MORAN: I think the people who are talking that way are probably getting that from -- we have five Congressmen that sit in very powerful positions. We have a woman in Niki Tsongas; we have the Eighth Congressional District, which is the majority minority district. So if you take all those, and you consider those are the ones we have to keep, you’re left with Congressman Lynch, Congressman Keating and Congressman Tierney. And just by geography, Congressman Lynch and Congressman Keating seem to be the two that have to run against – if you use that as the principles. So that I think is where that is coming from.





Curious to leave Tsongas alone.

[Brittain33]

Lynch and Keating.

They talking about drawing Quincy into Lynch's district, which makes zero sense if your plan is to eliminate one of their districts. You still have the rest of the 10th. The only way to make this work is to divide up Lynch's district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lynch and Keating.

They talking about drawing Quincy into Lynch's district, which makes zero sense if your plan is to eliminate one of their districts. You still have the rest of the 10th. The only way to make this work is to divide up Lynch's district.

Agreed -- this not a credible scenario.

[krazen1211]

Doesn't eliminating Lynch require a lot of baconmandering?

[krazen1211]

Hmm.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2011/08/19/massachusetts_electoral_districts_being_redrawn/

Massachusetts legislators, who are in the final stages of constructing a congressional redistricting map that will force at least two of the 10 Democratic incumbents to face off next year, are focusing on several potential scenarios, including merging the seats of Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston and freshman William R. Keating of Quincy to create a new district encompassing most of Norfolk County.

That possibility would require Representative Barney Frank, a 30-year veteran of Congress, to give up his hometown of Newton for a district concentrated near New Bedford and encompassing the southeastern part of the state, said sources who are privy to the redistricting conversations taking place on Beacon Hill.




Hmm, that sounds like a Cape and Islands district. Seems to ruffle more incumbents than is  needed, though.