US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am shocked, shocked to find out that a Republican wants a Dem vote sink in Boston.

The immediate Boston suburbs of Newton, Quincy, and Brookline are very, very Democratic as well. You have to go all the way out to the Worcester suburbs before taking in any real GOP territory, and by that point, you've just got way too much population included in the district.

Wow.  What is Brown, Liberal Politician Kryptonite?  I've never seen someone rise so much so fast.

Romney aside, Massachusetts politics is extremely congenial between the two parties. Republicans in the state legislature rarely see organized opposition from the state Democratic party. No Republican incumbent has lost a race for re-election in decades (though I do expect that to change in 2012 given the number of seats the GOP picked up in the House).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

How Republican?

I'm guessing it gave Obama less than 53% of the vote, and Kerry slightly more.

I presume you could get Obama down even lower. IIRC, I was able to create a Gore 52% district back when I was playing around with redistricting Massachusetts years ago. (The district I created, of course, looked almost identical to this one.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Is that kind of minority pack in anyone's best interest?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There's more people in Quincy than in the entire red share of Norfolk. It took me a moment to find an alignment of towns to prevent a split. Quincy and Milton to purple, Holbrook to teal; the red parts north of the Bristol line, Mansfield and North Attleboro to teal, Avon to red; Abington, Hanson, Halifax, Plympton, Bridgewater, East Bridgewater, West Bridgewater, Middleborough to red, Mattapoisett to purple. I don't like it very much...

Aren't the Bridgewater's Brockton suburbs?  If you leave Milton in the teal, how much north of Plymouth/Bay Colony boundary would you need to go with the red, with towns adjacent to Attleboro and Brockton preferred. 

It sounds funny to hear someone refer to a "suburb of Brockton."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, just yesterday, I played with the redistricting app for the first time. It's a heck of a lot of fun to use -- I'm sure I'll wind up making hundreds of maps in the near future.

For my first effort, I took a shot at drawing Massachusetts. I wasn't sure what I wanted to do at first, but in the end, this wound up being a very GOP-friendly map. Not in that it was specifically drawn to favor Republicans, but in that it winds up screwing over a lot of Democrats by virtue of un-Gerrymandering.

If an independent commission was tasked with redistricting MA without regard to current incumbents, I feel they might come up with something very similar to this.

District 1 is a Berkshires district modified to now include Springfield. It is very hard to justify a non-gerrymandered map that allows a Western Mass district without a "major" city anchor. Both Rep. Olver and Neal are pushed together in this district.

District 2 is a Worcester-based district. It takes in the city and much of the county, as well as a handful of Hampden County towns that share similar political interests. McGovern would be the representative here.

District 3 is a "new" district. If I had to name it, I'd call it "Metrowest" -- these are largely old suburban towns, combined with some quieter areas down south. These towns have a genuine common interest but are frequently shattered in a million pieces to favor politicians from outside the area. There's no incumbent, though presumably, Markey could move here.

District 4 is what Barney Frank's district should be -- a Bristol County-based district that takes in the minority-heavy mill towns of Southern Massachusetts. Barney lives in Brookline and is thus carved out of the district, but because he represents much of this territory anyway, he'd be a natural fit for holding it.

In District 5, I did what no redistricting commission is likely to do -- I saved Niki Tsongas. It's the northern equivalent of District 4, taking in a number of old industrial towns. I thought that a district that combined Fitchburg, Lowell, and Woburn was an interesting concept.

District 6 is easily recognizable as Tierney's current district. It's a North Shore district based around Lynn and Salem. Very little changed here, save for a geographical shrinkage necessary to meet the one-man-one-vote quota.

District 7 is a mix of old CD-07 and 08. I molded the new district around the inner Boston suburbs, combining areas that felt like a natural "fit" with each other: Somerville, Cambridge, Medford, the more urban part of Waltham, Newton, Brighton (Boston), Back Bay (Boston), and Brookline. It is a very "Whole Foods liberal" kind of district. Capuano would represent this district though he's likely too conservative for it; if he chased after the US Senate instead, it'd be a perfect fit for Markey.

District 8 is a minority-heavy effort that takes in much of Boston. It also grabs some other minority-heavy territory in Suffolk, and gobbles up Quincy and Milton. Lynch would be the Rep here. My only problem with the district is that it could use a few extra minorities -- white VAP hovers just over 50%.

District 9 is the South Shore district. Keating technically lives outside it, but obviously represents most of it in the current congress. It's northern terminus is Braintree; it takes in far more of Plymouth County than the current version.



I'm curious to see what you all think of it. 



And a close up of Boston:

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Avon just gets juggled around a lot between maps because it's the only nicely tiny township for miles around.

I can't tell Avon and Stoughton apart the way I can Avon and Quincy, Avon and Brockton, or Avon and Braintree. To me, any district, congressional or state senate, should combine the two for community-of-interest reasons. Heck, it's original name was East Stoughton.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Earlier today, I submitted a proposed map to the Massachusetts Legislative Commission on Redistricting. In it, I suggested that a district be created for the Metrowest region. The area between I-495 and I-95 (Route 128) is a genuine community of interest -- one currently split between five districts in the existing 2000 draw.

The need for such a district is clear, as no single congressman currently lives in the purple area. Or really, anywhere near it.

Though it is likely more Republican than any Democrat would prefer, the odds of the district electing a GOP congresscritter are still next to zero.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

What would that do to your CD4?

My new CD04 is less Democratic because it doesn't take in Brookline or Newton, but it's more Republican because it doesn't take in as many Plymouth County towns at the old one did. You've probably looking at a wash.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I note that you've put Frank, Markey, and Capuano in the same district. I'm okay with this, mainly because it makes sense from a community of interest standpoint and Frank could easily just move to New Bedford, where somewhat strangely he's more popular than he is in his own area anyway (or, at least, just as much so), and Markey to Natick or someplace (or he could retire, but I don't particularly care to lose Markey).

While there's no constitutional mandate for them to do so, Frank could move south into CD4; Markey moves to CD3; and Capuano stays in CD7. Keating may need to move too -- his hometown is split between CD8 and 9, but we could easily play around with the lines to save him the trouble (in exchange for a higher deviation -- currently, it's 4 voters).

Olver and Neal are put in the same CD in the west, but really, according to Sen. Rosenberg, that's a foregone conclusion.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Today, I gave testimony to the MA Joint Committee on Redistricting. I submitted a proposed redistricting plan for Massachusetts to the committee. I fear it's a bit too common sense to be appreciated, but someone needs to be out there advocating for a decent set of lines.

This is pretty much the only other place in the world that would care what I have to say on the topic, so ... for your reading enjoyment, there it is.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

Well. You know what I meant there, anyway.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"well-serviced by the MBTA" LOLOLOLOL *crying*

Well. You know what I meant there, anyway.

Sorry, I got bumped on the head by a big chunk of my property value falling off.

Go to bed early, and fall 2018 will be here before you know it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Got a phone call from a Democratic State Rep (on the Committee) about the plan I submitted. He was remarkably enthusiastic about something we both knew wouldn't happen.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Come on, man, you know better than to suggest that the VRA is going to require a 48% white, 52% non-white district with no minority making up more than 20% of that 52%.

Shhhh.

(I'd be surprised if the final map doesn't have a minority-majority district, in any case. It's too easy to draw without significantly impacting Democratic chances elsewhere. Minority populations grew way faster than the white population did.)

Got a phone call from a Democratic State Rep (on the Committee) about the plan I submitted. He was remarkably enthusiastic about something we both knew wouldn't happen.

Was he from the Metrowest? Perhaps he's looking to become a Congressman.

He's from Arlington.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's rather easy to create a minority-majority district in Massachusetts without otherwise endangering any incumbents. In fact, just about any district that includes Jamaica Plain, Ashmont, Mattapan, and Dorchester is going to wind up being minority-majority or close to it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lynch and Keating.

They talking about drawing Quincy into Lynch's district, which makes zero sense if your plan is to eliminate one of their districts. You still have the rest of the 10th. The only way to make this work is to divide up Lynch's district.

Agreed -- this not a credible scenario.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Quincy is not a part of a Cape & Islands district, then almost certainly Brockton and New Bedford have to be. Plymouth is just getting too Republican.

Because the other part of it, attaching Quincy and other nearby Norfolk County towns, to the 9th does make a lot of sense from a COI point of view, as does putting Newton in with the 8th or 7th and Brookline with the 8th.

If they're combining Lynch and Keating, then this new district is going to be taking in some very un-Norfolk-like chunks of Boston.

Is this for Therese Murray to run in when he retires or something?

Redistricting will be very interesting so far as Therese Murray is concerned. She barely won re-election in 2010, and it's going to be hard to make that district more Democratic, since it'll need to pick up more Plymouth territory (the Cape & Islands seat needs to expand -- it lost population).

It'll be a very interesting race if Romney winds up on the ticket.

Could be. Would they be confident in Frank winning without half of Falls River (if he ditches that half to the expanding 3rd), and without Newton?

Fall River is in McGovern's district, not Frank's.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Quincy is not a part of a Cape & Islands district, then almost certainly Brockton and New Bedford have to be. Plymouth is just getting too Republican.

Because the other part of it, attaching Quincy and other nearby Norfolk County towns, to the 9th does make a lot of sense from a COI point of view, as does putting Newton in with the 8th or 7th and Brookline with the 8th.

If they're combining Lynch and Keating, then this new district is going to be taking in some very un-Norfolk-like chunks of Boston.

Is this for Therese Murray to run in when he retires or something?

Redistricting will be very interesting so far as Therese Murray is concerned. She barely won re-election in 2010, and it's going to be hard to make that district more Democratic, since it'll need to pick up more Plymouth territory (the Cape & Islands seat needs to expand -- it lost population).

It'll be a very interesting race if Romney winds up on the ticket.

Could be. Would they be confident in Frank winning without half of Falls River (if he ditches that half to the expanding 3rd), and without Newton?

Fall River is in McGovern's district, not Frank's.

Hmph, pulling it up on DRA shows it split between the 3rd and the 4th. Is that incorrect?

Oh, it looks like it's split between the two. My mistake.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Is there even a slight chance that Democrats will just create a winnable district for the GOP (come on, just throw them a bone) in order to make their other districts even more safe?

There's already a winnable district for Republicans: MA-10. It's just that they did a pretty lousy job of winning it last time around.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Massachusetts should be releasing their first draft State House and State Senate maps next Tuesday.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Do counties even matter in MA anymore, though?

We do elect sheriffs and clerks on a county level, though that's about it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We have a new map!

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/politics/29702664/detail.html



Lynch and Keating are districted together, but it's expected that Keating will use his Bourne summer house as an excuse to run in his "old" Cape Cod district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

You could draw lines at random and still get a 9-0 map.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As expected, Keating confirmed that he will seek re-election in the Cape Cod-based MA-09 -- no Keating vs. Lynch primary is on the horizon.