US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

You have put the Berkshires and most of the Pioneer Valley in with the Springfield area. From a community of interest standpoint they are far more similar to northern Worcester County as far east as Leominster and Fitchburg, whereas Springfield is the core of its own little area that kind of spills around the southern border of the state. In this respect the current map does very well (except for Northampton and Hadley being in the Springfield district, which is truly bizarre).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Can anybody really want that? I don't think so. Well, the current Representatives for the first, second and third districts maybe.

As a native of Franklin County, and current resident of Hampshire County, I for one think that that looks fairly okay, though I confess that the same things that make me attuned to CoE distinctions in the area also mean that I'm not exactly the most objective judge.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What is the PVI?

That's a tough question, since Dave's Redistricting App doesn't have data for Massachusetts like that.

Here are some facts, though:

It contains only three towns that went for McCain: Wrentham, Walpole, and Norfolk, all in the southen part of the district. All went to him by very small margins -- either 50 or 51%.

The northern part of the district is incredibly Democratic. Framingham, probably the largest of the towns in the district, went 67% Obama; he got all the way up to 76% in Lincoln.

I'd guess this district is D+10 on the whole. The real danger to Democrats is simply the fact that this district contains, almost in its entirity, a "safe Republican" State Senate district. Sen. Richard Ross (R) could run here with an actual voter base.

You could probably make this safer for Dems by taking more of Middlesex and giving up more of the quieter, Southern part of the district.

What would that do to your CD4?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I note that you've put Frank, Markey, and Capuano in the same district. I'm okay with this, mainly because it makes sense from a community of interest standpoint and Frank could easily just move to New Bedford, where somewhat strangely he's more popular than he is in his own area anyway (or, at least, just as much so), and Markey to Natick or someplace (or he could retire, but I don't particularly care to lose Markey).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I just...I...

...well at least it seems like if this happens Northampton will end up in 01. That would be something at least.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Well with Olver retiring here's my proposal:

That would make more sense if you traded some of the Springfield area for the rest of Hampshire and Franklin. There's no comprehensible reason why those counties should be split, unless the alternative is splitting Springfield itself.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Culturally and as a CoI, Hampshire+Franklin does, but you could cut out some of the eastern towns there and not rip things apart too much. Greenfield, Montague, Amherst, Northampton, and points west are really the bulk of what, as a resident of the area, I think should stay together.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Let me try to whip something up. How do you post DRA maps in threads?

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There's a "Save View JPG" button under "Area Views" at the top. Just upload it somewhere and then post it here.

Okay, thanks. I'll do that this afternoon.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Se~no!



First attempt: Two Westa-Woosta districts, with two criteria:

1. Pioneer Valley and Hill Towns remain mostly together and in the same district as the Berkshires.
2. Springfield and Worcester are in separate districts both of which include all or most of their immediate suburbs.

MA-01: Berkshires, Greenfield, Montague, Northampton, Amherst, Westfield, Holyoke, Chicopee, Springfield, Ludlow. Richard Neal.
MA-02: Worcester, Leominster/Fitchburg, Southbridge, Quabbin area. Jim McGovern.

I was able to get the Pioneer Valley, Hill Towns, Berkshires, and most of the Springfield area in one district by sacrificing some traditionally associated towns that could also be reasonably considered part of a CoI with the rural parts of Worcester County, such as Athol in Franklin County and Belchertown and Granby in Hampshire. I'm not terribly happy about this, nor about Wilbraham ending up in the Worcester district, but as an area resident I think the problems are relatively minor. Neal keeps about half of his current population if not a little more. McGovern gets essentially an all-new district but since it's still centered in the Worcester area he should be able to win it if he wants it. MA-03 should probably be a new MetroWest district stretching from Boston's inner north-western suburbs to the Rhode Island border. Markey could probably win here, since the more Republican (or less Democratic) parts of Worcester County would be cracked between it and MA-02.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Boston is the only split town.

I want to keep Quincy, and also Randolph, out of the 3rd (former 10th)... which means I can't very well push the 4th out of Norfolk County.

You have put the Berkshires and most of the Pioneer Valley in with the Springfield area. From a community of interest standpoint they are far more similar to northern Worcester County as far east as Leominster and Fitchburg, whereas Springfield is the core of its own little area that kind of spills around the southern border of the state. In this respect the current map does very well (except for Northampton and Hadley being in the Springfield district, which is truly bizarre).

Simply put, I've since changed my opinion on that, but I can do another one with a Berkshires/Pioneer Valley/northern County district, a Springfield district, and a Worcester/MetroWest district.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The border between 01 and 02 is the Hampden/Hampshire county line for a while with 01 taking in Westfield and points west.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Here is a map whose goals were to have one Springfield district, one Worcester district, one rural-ish Western/Central Mass district, and one Boston district, and to screw over Stephen Lynch.





Note that if I rejigged the boundaries in East and South Boston somewhat (currently all of Boston is in one district except for about two thousand people living right on or in the Harbor), I could create a MA-07 that would be drivable via the Ted Williams Tunnel. Frank could probably win either MA-04, which includes his home as well as the bulk of Lynch's current district, or MA-09, which includes his South Coast strongholds, but he might have to try harder than he's accustomed to in either case. The maximum deviation is -1,499 for MA-03.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I. What.

What in God's name even is this sh**t.

Okay, I'm glad they kept the Pioneer Valley together, but why am I in a district with Worcester.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I can't see your map/image, krazen.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

At a glance, purple seems competitive. Green, maybe, although there's enough of a Democratic machine in Springfield to generate candidates for such a district reasonably reliably. Fall River and New Bedford mean that red probably isn't, but I'd think that's your next best bet.

EDIT: Teal would probably be competitive under certain circumstances. It doesn't look too different from what John Tierney actually has but might be slightly less Democratic. We all of course know what is going on with dear Mr Tierney right now.