Does anyone expect Allen West to be in Congress come January 2013?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Just asking because I really don't see a way for him to survive. Even if redistricting wasn't come up with the new laws governing it he still has a D+1 seat and is taking every opportunity to behave as crazy as possible. The fact that he'll probably end up with maybe a D+7 or so seat at best really makes you wonder. Granted this does remove any incentive of him to not act crazy I'll admit.

[SvenssonRS]

No. The Dems are clearly going to gerrymander all 242 Republicans out of existence, and the world will be forever right.

[CatoMinor]

No. The Dems are clearly going to gerrymander all 242 Republicans out of existence, and the world will be forever right.

What do mean Gerrymander?, after Obama wins his 48 state sweep in 2012 nearly all the anarcho-nazi teabagging fascist scum GOP will be swept out of office because of his coat tails, the Democrats have no need to gerrymander. Americans won't fall for those fascist fairy tales of individual and economic freedom.

[Dgov]

I assume he'll serve until the end of his term, which (I think) is January 4th 2013.

After that, I don't know.  His district, while an ugly mess, is generally centered on the Wealthy beach communities of the South Florida area, so it might stay somewhat similar to it's current form.  Also, most of the gerrymandering involves taking the blacks out of the district, which might still be necessary if the lawsuit against the redistricting legislation is successful (as the 23rd wouldn't be black enough without them).

[DrScholl]

He's done, any competent Democrat will defeat him in a fairly drawn seat and the Dem bench is deep there.

[Niemeyerite]

he's the republican alan grayson. he won't win in 2012.

[ajc0918]

Allen West is his name.

[they don't love you like i love you]

No. The Dems are clearly going to gerrymander all 242 Republicans out of existence, and the world will be forever right.

This sarcastic post clearly represents exactly what I've said and have asked about and isn't based off Svensson's "hate-on" for me. Very productive too.

I assume he'll serve until the end of his term, which (I think) is January 4th 2013.

After that, I don't know.  His district, while an ugly mess, is generally centered on the Wealthy beach communities of the South Florida area, so it might stay somewhat similar to it's current form.  Also, most of the gerrymandering involves taking the blacks out of the district, which might still be necessary if the lawsuit against the redistricting legislation is successful (as the 23rd wouldn't be black enough without them).

You clearly haven't been paying attention to the redistricting threads (unsurprisingly) as many people have produced maps showing how easy it is to keep a majority black FL-23. The gerrymandering comes mostly not from that anyway but removing the Jews through FL-19. And it's a still a D+1 seat for a guy who is basically a black male Michele Bachmann.

[AndrewTX]

Is this a poll, and if so, where is the "I don't care" option

[Хahar 🤔]

Is this a poll, and if so, where is the "I don't care" option

Nobody's forcing you to read this thread.

[Sam Spade]

At the Congressional level, the district behaves a bit more like an R+1 CD than a D+1 CD.  Kinda like a lot of CDs in Florida.  Interestingly, in 2010, FL-22 most mirrored the national House vote swing of any CD in the nation.

Anyway, the district is not going to survive in current form, so his return is unlikely.

[Keystone Phil]

My apologies for my intial comment here. I saw "Alan" and naturally assumed you meant Grayson (especially since West spells his name "Allen").

[Smash255]

No. The Dems are clearly going to gerrymander all 242 Republicans out of existence, and the world will be forever right.

If you are going to come up with some half assed sarcastic sarcastic response, you should at least know what the hell is being talked about.

After the 2000 census the Republicans were in charge of redistricting in Florida.  They went on a very heavy Gerrymander, especially in FL-22, which was then held by Republican Clay Shaw.  The district was an EXTREME gerrymander, a real ugly monstrosity (see below).

The Republicans will still be in charge of redistricting after the 2010 Census, however voters passed new laws about the redistricting process, calling for more compact districts and communities of interest.   What that means is West's crazy district doesn't stand a chance of staying in any way remotely what it is now.  Instead of being a very conservative Republican representing a marginal district, with the new redistricting laws there is no way that the district can be marginal anymore.  West will be a very conservative Republican representing a fairly strong Democratic district.  Its the law.

This will be no more.

[they don't love you like i love you]

My apologies for my intial comment here. I saw "Alan" and naturally assumed you meant Grayson (especially since West spells his name "Allen").

Ha, I was wondering what the hell you meant.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He is the 21st century Michael Flanagan.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He is the 21st century Michael Flanagan.

Nah, that's Cao. He might be better compared to that guy who beat David Price.

[memphis]

I looked him up on wikipedia to see who you guys were talking about. I don't have all 435 House members memorized. Oh yeah, Black Repubican from Florida. Town he's from is called Plantation! That's......interesting.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

He's the Republican Alan Grayson.

Speaking of, I wish Alan were president right now...

[SvenssonRS]

He's the Republican Alan Grayson.

Speaking of, I wish Alan were president right now...

Country = Screwed.

Also, I'd really love to know how in the hell they came up with West's district in the first place. It's practically a line.

[Хahar 🤔]

He is the 21st century Michael Flanagan.

Nah, that's Cao. He might be better compared to that guy who beat David Price.

Cliff Lee?

[nclib]

He is the 21st century Michael Flanagan.

Nah, that's Cao. He might be better compared to that guy who beat David Price.

Cliff Lee?

LOL. Another irony is that the ballplayer David Price pitched at AAA Durham, which is in Congressman David Price's CD.

As for West, he'll be gone due to the decreased gerrymander (probably would even if it were under the same lines).

[ajc0918]

He's the Republican Alan Grayson.

Speaking of, I wish Alan were president right now...

Country = Screwed.

Also, I'd really love to know how in the hell they came up with West's district in the first place. It's practically a line.

In 2000 they were trying to shore up republican precints for then Rep Clay Shaw, he then went on to lose in 2006 being defeated by Ron Klein. So from what it looks like, this district is about as republican as they tried to make it in 2000.

[jbgator]

No.  But if he does survive he will be a statewide or even possibly VP contender not far down the road.

[Brittain33]

Also, I'd really love to know how in the hell they came up with West's district in the first place. It's practically a line.

It's how that part of Florida was developed. Very expensive real estate right by the ocean, with much poorer housing near the railroad tracks and highway just inland, and farmland, orchards, and swamps behind that. Then when development really took off, the farmland was developed into modern SFHs, townhouses, and senior communities, while some of the beachfront land was further redeveloped into expensive high-rise condos. Up in the Palm Beach (town, not county) section you have exclusive mansions against the water. So FL-22 was the wealthy area, FL-23 was the run-down area with outdated, small homes, and FL-19 and FL-20 were the middle class (families or retirees) areas behind. Where FL-22 reaches inland, it captures the wealthiest developments that happen to not be on the waterfront.