pennsylvania was close!!!
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  pennsylvania was close!!!
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Author Topic: pennsylvania was close!!!  (Read 8458 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #50 on: November 23, 2004, 01:09:53 AM »

Well, Vorlon, I think you are finding bias where there is none (I'm not sure why you're not going to post anymore here, but that's fine.) I think they were basing it on exit polling.
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A18
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« Reply #51 on: November 23, 2004, 01:17:01 AM »

After the exit polls, I think the media was "assuming" Kerry was going to win....which is why they were more cautious and probably surprised about calling Bush states, and more certain in calling Kerry states.

Sounds sensible enough.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #52 on: November 23, 2004, 01:36:57 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2004, 03:41:07 PM by The Vorlon »

Well, Vorlon, I think you are finding bias where there is none (I'm not sure why you're not going to post anymore here, but that's fine.) I think they were basing it on exit polling.

I guess I just think there are too many examples of HUGE differences in the time it took to call states with very similar margins for it to be a co-incidence...

Here are 18 states to look at....

These are states where the Bush and Kerry margins of victory were very very similar, and we are NOT talking a few minutes difference in call time, we are talk literally HOURS of difference...

If it was one or two states I'd say it was a fluke.... but 18 states where there was a dramatic difference in the call times and ALWAYS faster for Kerry than Bush...?

You don't think this is a tad strange..?

Seriously... do you HONESTLY contend that Bush and Kerry states were called at a similar pace...?

Look at the data....

BTW this is no cherry picking.. I simply take every state that was even remotely close and compared it to the closest state from the other guy (in terms of % margin) above and below...

The Kerry States

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...Huh?

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
California: Kerry +10.22% - 0 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...Huh?

Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Illinois :Kerry +10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas   : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call

three HOURS difference...Huh?

Virginia : Bush +8.20% - 101 minutes to call
Maine : Kerry + 8.03% - 0 minutes to call (3 of 4 EVs)
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...Huh?

Virginia : Bush +8.20%   101 minutes to call
Delaware : Kerry +7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri : Bush +7.20% - 136 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...Huh?

Missouri : Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington : Kerry + 7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call

Two HOURS difference...Huh?

Colorado   : Bush +   6.45% - 204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry + 6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...Huh?

Florida : Bush +   5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call
Nevada : Bush +2.59% - 354 minutes to call

Three HOURS difference...Huh?

The Bush States

Rhode Island - Kerry + 20.74% - 0 minutes to call
Mississippi : Bush +20.30% - 90 minutes to call
Vermont : Kerry + 20.14% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...Huh?

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
South Carolina : Bush +17.08% - 102 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

1 and a half HOURS difference...Huh?

New York   : Kerry + 17.27%- 0 minutes to call
Louisiana  : Bush +14.51% - 29 minutes to call
Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call

half HOUR difference...Huh?

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
North Carolina : Bush +12.65% - 72 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

1 + HOURS difference...Huh?

Maryland   : Kerry + 12.98% - 0 minutes to call
Arizona : Bush +10.47% - 208 minutes to call
Connecticut : Kerry + 10.36% - 1 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...Huh?

Illinois : Kerry + 10.12% - 5 minutes to call
Arkansas : Bush +9.83% -195 minutes to call
Hawaii : Kerry + 8.74% - 96 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...Huh?

Delaware   Kerry + 7.59% - 2 minutes to call
Missouri   Bush +   7.20% - 136 minutes to call
Washington   Kerry + 7.18%   0 minutes to call

2+ HOURS difference...Huh?

Washington : Kerry +7.18% - 0 minutes to call
Colorado : Bush +6.45%   204 minutes to call
New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call

3 and a half HOURS difference...Huh?

New Jersey : Kerry +6.17% - 0 minutes to call
Florida : Bush +5.01% - 255 minutes to call
Oregon : Kerry + 4.00% - 62 minutes to call

3+ HOURS difference...Huh?

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