Is there a "Palin effect" in polling?

[tpfkaw]

I was just thinking that there might be a response bias issue with current polling regarding Sarah Palin, in that people don't want to say they would vote for or approve of Palin for fear of being ridiculed for having an "incorrect" or "uneducated" opinion.  (Sort of like the "Bradley effect" but in reverse).  Do you think that this might be a legitimate issue?

[emailking]

It's a possible issue, but I think vote splitting is probably a much greater issue at the moment in terms of masking her support.

[Iosif]

I think if you look closely at the polling, it's there. It might translate to a 6.5-9.5 point swing to Palin on election day. Not good for Obama.

[DrScholl]

Palin supporters aren't the type to worry about what anyone thinks of their choices. I think the instances of people lying about supporting a particular candidate are very low, polls are collective samples where individual opinions aren't made public and most people get that.

[Smash255]

Palin supporters aren't the type to worry about what anyone thinks of their choices. I think the instances of people lying about supporting a particular candidate are very low, polls are collective samples where individual opinions aren't made public and most people get that.

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This

[Liberalrocks]

Palin supporters aren't the type to worry about what anyone thinks of their choices. I think the instances of people lying about supporting a particular candidate are very low, polls are collective samples where individual opinions aren't made public and most people get that.

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This

Yes, This. The days of the "Bradley Effect" are long over.

[albaleman]

No way. If anything, there's a pro-Palin bias because if she were actually campaigning, she'd be making gaffes and her poll numbers would go down even further.

[Reaganfan]

Yes. I know because I am one of them. I'd support someone else in the primary, then if asked Obama vs. Palin, I'd vote for the President...but in the end I'd actually probably vote for Palin.

[Brittain33]

Yes, I think it's possible that she would lose by a large margin instead of the ridiculous landslide predicted by polls. Katharine Harris was considered a joke candidate and she closed at the end because of Republicans who supported the party and knew she wasn't going to actually win. Palin, should she become the nominee (which seems very unlikely still, if not impossible), will get lots of votes at the end from partisans who know at least that they wouldn't be making her President but would be making a statement about their beliefs.

[BlueSwan]

I'm sure there is such an effect, but I'm also quite sure that it is small.

In Denmark we have a semi-racist right wing party that outperforms their polling in every single election we've had since 1998, however they only outperform the polls by something like one percentage point.

[Person Man]

Yes, I think it's possible that she would lose by a large margin instead of the ridiculous landslide predicted by polls. Katharine Harris was considered a joke candidate and she closed at the end because of Republicans who supported the party and knew she wasn't going to actually win. Palin, should she become the nominee (which seems very unlikely still, if not impossible), will get lots of votes at the end from partisans who know at least that they wouldn't be making her President but would be making a statement about their beliefs.

Whether or not that snowballs into a victory is another issue entirely. I mean, shouldn't you be proud of who you are voting for? Then again, there are a lot of angry and confused people who support Palin and would probably think that lying about supporting her is the only thing that allows them to keep what's left of their freedom...but who knows? ReaganFan is probably pretty accurate, but mainstream Conservative Republicans coming home seem like the traditional undecideds on the homestretch that cause the challenger to win last minute undecideds 2:1. ...unless of course Obama can do what Bush did- scare or guilt trip that number from 2:1 to perhaps 1:1 or slightly better. 

[Brittain33]

There are Democrats who I would never want to see in elected office who I would vote for if they were certain to lose and I wanted to register my opposition to the winner's agenda. I'm not sure if Alvin Greene would have qualified, but I could probably think of others. I'm also one of those people who considers "not voting" to not be an option. I expect there are millions of Republicans who would vote that way if Palin were nominated.

[Person Man]

There are Democrats who I would never want to see in elected office who I would vote for if they were certain to lose and I wanted to register my opposition to the winner's agenda. I'm not sure if Alvin Greene would have qualified, but I could probably think of others. I'm also one of those people who considers "not voting" to not be an option. I expect there are millions of Republicans who would vote that way if Palin were nominated.

How many electoral votes would Palin get with that strategy and could she actually win because people don't think she can win? Is that how Reagan won?