Barak quits the party
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  Barak quits the party
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: January 17, 2011, 08:54:54 AM »

http://www.haaretz.com/labor-ministers-bolt-coalition-after-barak-resigns-from-party-1.337530
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2011, 08:56:44 AM »

Looks to be the usual shameless opportunist.
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Thomas216
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2011, 09:06:17 AM »
« Edited: January 17, 2011, 09:30:44 AM by Thomas216 »

The leadership elections should be interesting. Herzog and Breverman already announced they're running. Mitzna, Eini and Yachimovich may also run.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2011, 09:11:41 AM »

I thought this was about Obama.  Sad
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2011, 09:12:10 AM »

Does this mean the coalition is over (in the majority is lost, let's go vote sense)?
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Thomas216
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2011, 09:15:54 AM »

Does this mean the coalition is over (in the majority is lost, let's go vote sense)?

No. Still has 66 votes. Labour can't break the coalition, Lieberman and Shas can.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2011, 09:17:11 AM »

He's taken a couple of other MK's with him as well.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2011, 10:40:12 AM »

So how many MK's does Labor have now? Less than 10?

Wow, I don't even manage to feel something like pity, they dug this hole themselves.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2011, 10:52:29 AM »

So how many MK's does Labor have now? Less than 10?

Seven, I think. I did see eight quoted elsewhere, but that doesn't fit with reports.

Anyways, have a read of this.
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Thomas216
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2011, 11:05:25 AM »

So how many MK's does Labor have now? Less than 10?

Seven, I think. I did see eight quoted elsewhere, but that doesn't fit with reports.

Anyways, have a read of this.

It's complicated. At first they were 13. A group of 3 wanted to break apart but the party didn't let them (you need 1/3 of the MK, meaning 5, to break apart without the need for consent) so they're with one foot outside. Another MK (Ben Simon) asked the consent of the party but I'm not sure if it was given to him (you need the signature of every MK in order to split, some signed, not sure all of them). And now 5 broke ranks. Meaning there are 7/8 MK left in Labour.
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2011, 10:05:28 PM »

What is hard for me to understand is, what's the electorate that is going to vote for Barak's outfit?  There has already been a "centrist Likud/Labor merger", it's called Kadima. Barak's whateveritsname is, what, for those ex-Labor voters who find Kadima too leftist? Well, these are called Likudniks, aren't they? What's the niche? Or is it just a temporary nameplate till the next election, and they are planning a formal merger w/ Likud? Also doesn't seem too likely: Barak won't have an easy time getting on that ballot, unless it is clear exactly what sort of the vote he is bringing in.

The rump Labor might be under pressure to join up w/ Meretz. Might actually lead to a decent rationalization on the left.
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2011, 10:08:02 PM »

So anyone think Labour is going to go the way of the Whigs?
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2011, 10:15:31 PM »

So anyone think Labour is going to go the way of the Whigs?

The logic now, it would seem, should suggest a left-wing merger or alliance of some sort. It's now much harder to see, why the reduced Zionist left needs two parties: Labor and Meretz. Given that they are also much more similar in size now, the merger might be more equitable. On the other hand, the word "Labor" might still have some attraction, so, who knows what the new party will be called. In any case, there is enough space between Kadima and Hadash to hold a notable party, so I wouldn't write an obituary for Labor as such - yet. If anything, they are more coherent now, going into the next election. They might not return as a major party, but whether they are dead remains to be seen.

In contrast, I have a hard time imagining, what's that electorate between Kadima and Likud that Barak  is planning to court.
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ag
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2011, 10:18:05 PM »


It's complicated. At first they were 13. A group of 3 wanted to break apart but the party didn't let them (you need 1/3 of the MK, meaning 5, to break apart without the need for consent) so they're with one foot outside. Another MK (Ben Simon) asked the consent of the party but I'm not sure if it was given to him (you need the signature of every MK in order to split, some signed, not sure all of them). And now 5 broke ranks. Meaning there are 7/8 MK left in Labour.

Well, it would seem that now there is no longer any reason for the dissidents to stay dissident. They are mainstream now - within the rump party. Pines-Paz shouldn't have resigned, though - it would have Barak's treason that much harder.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2011, 10:24:50 PM »

Yeah, this has probably increased their chances of survival by quite a bit.
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ag
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2011, 10:36:41 PM »

I guess, I figured out why Barak did it and what is it that Netaniyahu promised. Netaniyahu needs Barak inside Likud - and that's where it is going. Firstly, Netaniyahu, however sad it sounds, is left of center within his own party: like any party leader he'd prefer to be in the center. Secondly, Barak can strut around in his uniform and medals - Netaniyahu is a relative civilian (to the extent there Israeli civilians at all out there), he needs somebody to cover for him in that dimension.

So, Barak and, probably, Vilnai (also a general), are going to get a couple of places reasonably high up on the Likud list - Netaniyahu will see to that. These two might also be used to attract some of the old Labor Ashkenazic elite.

The other three, I am afraid, have just bought some really sour lemons. Though, Simhon and Noked might be used to attract some of the moshavim and kibbutzim dwellers - rural rightwing commies, for god's sake Smiley)! Still, I have a strong doubt they'd get anything like a realistic spot on any Likud list in the forseeble future.
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danny
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2011, 06:40:00 AM »

I guess, I figured out why Barak did it and what is it that Netaniyahu promised. Netaniyahu needs Barak inside Likud - and that's where it is going. Firstly, Netaniyahu, however sad it sounds, is left of center within his own party: like any party leader he'd prefer to be in the center. Secondly, Barak can strut around in his uniform and medals - Netaniyahu is a relative civilian (to the extent there Israeli civilians at all out there), he needs somebody to cover for him in that dimension.

Yeah it's annoying how people with Netanyahu's military career (an officer in a top unit in the IDF) or even peretz's are considered "civillians". However, I'm not convinced that Barak really will run in the next election, he has become so hated in the general public that he will probably leave politics after the next elections. Of course, if he does leave he could do one of those "leave, wait for people to forget why they don't like me, and then come back" sometime in the future.

So, Barak and, probably, Vilnai (also a general), are going to get a couple of places reasonably high up on the Likud list - Netaniyahu will see to that. These two might also be used to attract some of the old Labor Ashkenazic elite.

Netanyahu doesn't decide the placings in the Likud list, and I really don't see the Likud members voting for Barak in a primary.
The old Ashkenazic elite is never going to vote for Likud regardless of who's in it, but they are becoming becoming a smaller part of the electorate anyway, although Netanyahu might try to attract them anyway.

The other three, I am afraid, have just bought some really sour lemons. Though, Simhon and Noked might be used to attract some of the moshavim and kibbutzim dwellers - rural rightwing commies, for god's sake Smiley)! Still, I have a strong doubt they'd get anything like a realistic spot on any Likud list in the forseeble future.

It's 2011, there are very very few communists in the kibbutzim and moshavim, and certainly not Simhon and Noked.
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