Barak quits the party

[ag]

What is hard for me to understand is, what's the electorate that is going to vote for Barak's outfit?  There has already been a "centrist Likud/Labor merger", it's called Kadima. Barak's whateveritsname is, what, for those ex-Labor voters who find Kadima too leftist? Well, these are called Likudniks, aren't they? What's the niche? Or is it just a temporary nameplate till the next election, and they are planning a formal merger w/ Likud? Also doesn't seem too likely: Barak won't have an easy time getting on that ballot, unless it is clear exactly what sort of the vote he is bringing in.

The rump Labor might be under pressure to join up w/ Meretz. Might actually lead to a decent rationalization on the left.

[ag]

So anyone think Labour is going to go the way of the Whigs?

The logic now, it would seem, should suggest a left-wing merger or alliance of some sort. It's now much harder to see, why the reduced Zionist left needs two parties: Labor and Meretz. Given that they are also much more similar in size now, the merger might be more equitable. On the other hand, the word "Labor" might still have some attraction, so, who knows what the new party will be called. In any case, there is enough space between Kadima and Hadash to hold a notable party, so I wouldn't write an obituary for Labor as such - yet. If anything, they are more coherent now, going into the next election. They might not return as a major party, but whether they are dead remains to be seen.

In contrast, I have a hard time imagining, what's that electorate between Kadima and Likud that Barak  is planning to court.

[ag]

It's complicated. At first they were 13. A group of 3 wanted to break apart but the party didn't let them (you need 1/3 of the MK, meaning 5, to break apart without the need for consent) so they're with one foot outside. Another MK (Ben Simon) asked the consent of the party but I'm not sure if it was given to him (you need the signature of every MK in order to split, some signed, not sure all of them). And now 5 broke ranks. Meaning there are 7/8 MK left in Labour.

Well, it would seem that now there is no longer any reason for the dissidents to stay dissident. They are mainstream now - within the rump party. Pines-Paz shouldn't have resigned, though - it would have Barak's treason that much harder.

[ag]

I guess, I figured out why Barak did it and what is it that Netaniyahu promised. Netaniyahu needs Barak inside Likud - and that's where it is going. Firstly, Netaniyahu, however sad it sounds, is left of center within his own party: like any party leader he'd prefer to be in the center. Secondly, Barak can strut around in his uniform and medals - Netaniyahu is a relative civilian (to the extent there Israeli civilians at all out there), he needs somebody to cover for him in that dimension.

So, Barak and, probably, Vilnai (also a general), are going to get a couple of places reasonably high up on the Likud list - Netaniyahu will see to that. These two might also be used to attract some of the old Labor Ashkenazic elite.

The other three, I am afraid, have just bought some really sour lemons. Though, Simhon and Noked might be used to attract some of the moshavim and kibbutzim dwellers - rural rightwing commies, for god's sake )! Still, I have a strong doubt they'd get anything like a realistic spot on any Likud list in the forseeble future.