NSW, Australia - State Election 26 March 2011

[Smid]

New South Wales has fixed terms. The next election is due on 26 March 2011, so just a couple of months away. As per usual, Antony Green has lots of very helpful information on his website... I'll quote it in this thread in the next few posts, and upload some maps to go with it.

[You kip if you want to...]

Bye Kristina!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This will not be pretty.

[Smid]

This will not be pretty.

I suspect the polls to be somewhat exagerated... Probably plenty of people who want to give Labor a whack, but I think they'll still do okay in a fair swag of safe electorates. Probably something similar to the 1996 federal election. The potential to bounce back in many seats in the following election is probably quite high, too. Of course, Antony Green makes the point that Optional Preferential will probably exagerate the 2PP result (it tends to exagerage in favour of the winner), so it may well appear worse for Labor that it actually is.

[redcommander]

This will not be pretty.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I agree with Smid that the poll are more dire than the reality might be.

The ALP will lose, and deservedly so. I like Kennealy a lot, and think she would have been better saved for after their loss.

The equal problem is that the NSW Opposition is not running a real argument as to why they are better than the ALP... their whole argument is "ALP bad... we not ALP"

Which won't help...

[Smid]

Here are some maps. They're all saved in the gallery (and I think larger in there). They are all 2CP based on the 2007 General Election. There have been at least five by-elections, none of those results are included in these maps, these are all General Election results in all electorates. I re-uploaded these maps on top of earlier ones because I was dissatisfied with the ones I had previously uploaded.

Firstly, I had used green for the National Party, whereas that can be quite confusing because of The Greens, so I've changed the maps to use purple to represent the Nationals - which is consistent with how I'm handling them in my Victorian maps, etc, as well.

Secondly, I had used a different scale for electorates in the Illawarra region - all of those seats were safe Labor, so I started the scale higher than normal - that can be confusing and gives the impression that the seats were more marginal than is actually the case, so I've used the same scale on all the maps so it's easier to compare the different regions of the state.

Rural and Regional New South Wales



Notes:
Hawkesbury (the >55% Liberal electorate to the Northwest of Sydney, west of Central Coast maps) 2CP is Liberal vs Independent.
Goulburn (the >51% Liberal electorate to the West of Illawarra) 2CP is Liberal vs Independent.
Dubbo (the >50% Independent electorate to the West of Sydney) 2CP is Independent vs Nationals.
Orange (the National Party electorate immediately to the East of Dubbo) 2CP is Nationals vs Independent.
Barwon (the very large National Party electorate on the central part of the border with Queensland) 2CP is Nationals vs Independent.
Port Macquarie (the very safe Independent electorate on the coast) 2CP is Independent vs Nationals (at the time of the General Election, this Independent was Rob Oakeshott).
Northern Tablelands (the very safe Independent electorate on the border with Queensland) 2CP is Independent vs Nationals.
Tamworth (the Independent electorate adjacent to Northern Tablelands) 2CP is Independent vs Nationals.

Following Oakeshott's election to Federal Parliament, there was a by-election held in the electorate of Port Macquarie. The National Party vote increased (23.7% 2CP swing), however the seat was won by another independent (54.52%).


Central Coast Region (this area follows the coast north of Sydney)



Notes:
Lake Macquarie (the Independent electorate) 2CP is 50.14% vs Labor.
Charlestown (the Labor electorate to the East of the Northern end of Lake Macquarie) 2CP is 57.04% vs Independent.
Newcastle (the Labor electorate along the coastline to the North of Charlestown) 2CP is 51.24% vs Independent.
Cessnock (the large Labor electorate to the Northwest of Lake Macquarie) 2CP is 62.41% vs Nationals.
Maitland (the Labor electorate to the North of Cessnock) 2CP is 51.98% vs Independent.

All other seats, the 2CP between the Liberal and Labor parties.


Illawarra Region (this area follows the coastline south of Sydney)



Notes:
Shellharbour (the southernmost of the three exceptionally safe Labor seats in the middle of the map) 2CP is 71.62% vs Independent.


Sydney Metropolitan Area



Notes:
Sydney (Independent electorate on the South side of Sydney Harbour) 2CP is Independent vs Labor.
Balmain (marginal Labor-held electorate on Sydney harbour, immediately West of Sydney) 2CP is Labor vs Greens.
Marrickville (marginal Labor-held electorate directly South of Balmain) 2CP is Labor vs Greens.
Manly (marginal Liberal electorate on the coast, at the mouth of Sydney Harbour) 2CP is Liberal vs incumbent Independent.
Pittwater (>58% Liberal electorate on the coastline) 2CP is Liberal vs Independent.
Willoughby (>62% Liberal electorate to the West of Manly) 2CP is Liberal vs Independent.

There have been four by-elections in the Sydney Metro Area - Lakemba, Cabramatta, Ryde and Penrith. All were held by the Labor Party in 2007, however Ryde and Penrith now have Liberal Members of Parliament.

[Smid]

Here are some maps showing the party/independent who received the highest primary vote in 2007, and the proportion of the primary vote they received. I figure it sets a good background before the campaign news begins. There are larger versions in the Gallery.

Rural and Regional New South Wales




Central Coast Region (this area follows the coastline North of Sydney)




Illawarra Region (this area follows the coastline South of Sydney)




Sydney Metropolitan Area

[Smid]

Now for maps for the Coalition Primary Vote in each electorate. There were no three-cornered contests in which the Liberals and Nationals contest a single seat against each other, so I have put Liberal and National Primary Votes on the map (instead of doing two separate maps and having a bunch of blank electorates on each). Again, they're all in the Gallery.

Rural and Regional New South Wales



Note:
The second-safest Liberal seat was Aubury, on the Victorian border, at 65.34% primary vote.


Central Coast Region (this area follows the coastline North of Sydney)



Note:
The Liberal Primary Vote in Newcastle was so low, it didn't fit on my pre-set scale, so rather than adjust my scale, I shaded it yellow to highlight this. It's a rather interesting result there, actually... Labor polled the highest primary vote with 31.22%, followed by an independent on 24.09%, another independent on 21.03% and the Greens on 11.21%. The Liberal candidate came fifth on 9.79%, the Christian Democrats came fifth on 1.27%, a third independent received 0.73%, a fourth independent received 0.4% and a fifth independent came last on 0.26%. So nine candidates in total, including five independents, the Greens outpolled the Liberals and the Coalition didn't make it to 10%. I don't know any of the background behind this - I know that the area is fairly strong for Labor generally, but I'm sure the Liberals usually do (much) better than this, so I'd guess that one of those independents receiving >20% of the vote would have been a conservative independent. Perhaps someone else knows something more about it?


Illawarra Region (this area follows the coastline to the South of Sydney)



Note:
Shellharbour (the southernmost of the two really weak electorates for the Liberals) returned a higher vote for an independent than for the Liberals (17.33% vs 14.75%). Not that it really matters, though, since Labor had a primary vote of 57.82%.


Sydney Metropolitan Area



Note:
Sydney is interesting in just how polarised it is (okay, so the rest of the state is pretty polarised, too - with so many safe conservative seats in the rural areas and safe Labor seats around Illawarra/Woollongong and Newcastle), still, Sydney has some pretty clear trends with areas to the North of the Harbour voting very strongly Liberal and areas South and West voting very strongly Labor. I think this map is the best one in showing just how low the Liberal vote is in some of those seats:

Auburn (the one partially on the water, at Homebush Bay): 14.31%
Bankstown (directly to the South of Auburn): 19.95%
Cabramatta (just to the West of Bankstown): 16.33%
Liverpool (stretching West from Cabramatta): 17.96%
Lakemba (just to the Southeast of Bankstown): 13.2% (this was then-Premier Morris Iemma's seat)
Canterbury (just to the Northeast of Lakemba): 18.32%
Marrickville (just to the East of Canterbury): 12.57% (this result is somewhat different from the other seats described here, in that the Greens did very well here, whereas in those other seats, the Greens don't do well... they are definitely "working class" seats and Labor's heartland).
The other very low result for the Liberals is Mount Druitt: 19.61%

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, the Liberals polled very well in the Northern suburbs of Sydney, and in Vaucluse in the East:

The two westernmost electorates where the Liberals did well are Baulkham Hills and Castle Hill, which is I think where the famous Hillsongs Church is located. The Liberals polled 51.54% and 56.47% in these two electorates.

Cronulla (the Southernmost electorate won by the Liberals, on the South side of Botany Bay): 56.69%
Vaucluse (on the South side of Sydney Harbour): 59.91%
Hornsby (the large electorate running Northeast from Castle Hill, on the Northern edge of the map): 52.88%
Pittwater (to the East of Hornsby, still at the Northern edge of the map): 50.31%. An independent came second with 26.85%, the Greens came third on 9.77%, Labor fourth on 7.36%, the Christian Democrats, Australians Against Further Immigration Party and the Democrats all fielded candidates as well, but failed to reach the 4% mark to receive public funding.
Ku-Ring-Gai (the boomerang-shaped electorate bordering Hornsby and Pittwater) yielded the highest Liberal Primary vote of 65.55%.
Davidson (immediately to the East of Ku-Ring-Gai): 60.42%
Wakehurst (on the coast, East of Davidson): 56.94%
Manly (on the coast, south of Wakehurst): 45.12% - the Liberals re-gained this seat off an incumbent independent, who polled 31.23%. Labor just managed to outpoll the Greens (9.82% vs 9.7%).
Willoughby (to the South of Davidson): 50.17%
North Shore (to the South of Willoughby): 53.41%
Lane Cove (to the West of North Shore): 52.25%

[Smid]

Here are the maps for Labor's Primary Vote in each electorate. Yes, larger ones in the Gallery.

Rural and Regional New South Wales



Note:
Labor won four of these electorates, and I think it's pretty clear which four (the four where they received their highest primary vote), and I think one of the seats which changed hands at this election was Tweed, in the Northeast corner of the state (won by the National Party). Tweed is on the coast, and borders Queensland.


Central Coast (this area follows the coastline North of Sydney)



Note:
I've already discussed Newcastle, where the Liberals were outpolled by Labor, two independents and the Greens, but other electorates in the Newcastle area are worth noting.
Port Stephens was gained by the Liberal Party for the first time since it was created in 1988. Labor's pre-selected candidate withdrew his nomination after being charged with drink driving, one of three Labor candidates who caused some embarrassment to the Government that week, but since they're all in nearby electorates, I'll cover them separately. The Liberal candidate was a former Mayor of the area.
Lake Macquarrie was another seat changing hands, gained by an independent from Labor. Another Mayor, running in the area. He was the only successful candidate of a group of three independents who (and I'm getting this straight off the link here) were advocating for an independent group alledging that Labor took the area for granted.
Cessnock is one of the three seats where the Labor MP (and Local Government Minister) caused some embarrassment for the Government, in this case, speeding. Her incident was the least scandalous of the three.
Swansea was clearly the worst for the government. Government Minister Milton Orkopoulos decided to not contest the election, having been dumped from the Ministry and Parliamentary Labor Party after being arrested on child prostitution and drugs charges (and subsequently convicted).
The other two seats with high-profile independents were Maitland and Newcastle (I guess that explains that Newcastle result, somewhat).


Illawarra Region (this area follows the coastline South of Sydney)




Sydney Metropolitan Area

[Smid]

Here are the Greens Primary Votes. Again, larger maps in the Gallery.

Rural and Regional New South Wales



Note:
Byron Bay, on the coastline, to the south of Tweed clearly influences the voting characteristics of the Ballina electorate with the Greens polling 19.44%, just behind Labor's 23.07%. This makes it the sixth strongest electorate for the Greens.

Nimbin, inland and in the Lismore electorate (to the West of Ballina), also clearly influences the vote in that electorate, with the Greens polling 17.73% of the vote, making it the eighth strongest electorate for the Greens.

The Blue Mountains, west of Sydney, also record a high vote for the Greens - 16.24%, their nineth strongest result.

The weakest result for the Greens was in Tamworth (1.21%), and their next five worst results, all of which were lower than the 4% required for public financing, were Murray-Darling (the large electorate touching on the borders of Queensland, South Australia and Victoria) - 2.42%, Dubbo (South of Barwon) - 2.45%, Port Macquarie (on the Coast) - 2.75%, Barwon (the large electorate bordering on Queensland) - 2.97%, and Northern Tablelands (bordering Queensland, and also touching Tamworth, Barwon, Lismore, Clarence, Oxley and Upper Hunter) - 3.16%.


Central Coast Region (this area follows the coastline North of Sydney)



Note:
I am somewhat surprised that the Greens did so well in Cessnock (large electorate West of the Newcastle electorates), because this area is mostly coal mining, although there is also some wine growing/agriculture, too, and I don't see coal miners as being typical Greens voters... In Cessnock, they polled 13.81%. In neighbouring Wallsend, they polled 12.15%.


Illawarra Region (this area follows the coastline South of Sydney)



Note:
I'm not overly surprised with the Greens receiving a relatively poor result in Woolongong and Shellharbour (the two southern electorates near that bay). I'm not certain of employment by industry in the area (too lazy to go to the ABS website to look it up), but the Illawarra Rugby League team (back before they merged with St George) was the Illawarra Steelers, because I believe many peole in the area are employed by a steel mill. Okay, yeah, the Sydney Morning Herald website mentions:

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So yeah, coal miners, steel workers, and dockside wharfies, plus other heavy industry, probably means lots of Labor voters, not many Greens voters. That said, the Greens did win this area federally in a by-election (Cunningham) when the Liberals didn't run a candidate.


Sydney Metropolitan Area



Note:
Most of the top booths for the Greens are located in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, including:
Marrickville (see the Liberal Primary Vote map Note for location): 32.55%
Balmain (immediately North of Marrickville): 29.53%
Coogee (east of Marrickville, on the coast, the middle of the three coastal electorates between Sydney Harbour and Botany Bay): 21.13%
Vaucluse (immediately North of Coogee): 20.45%
Heffron (eastwards - and a little south - of Coogee): 19.65%
North Shore (Northeast across the Harbour from Vaucluse): 17.9%

Including the three out-of-Sydney seats of Blue Mountains, Lismore and Ballina, these seats are the top nine seats for the Greens. The tenth seat is Sydney (15.56%), which is surrounded by Vaucluse, Coogee, Heffron, Marrickville and Balmain.

[redcommander]

NSW Labour's number only seem to be getting worse. They are at 20% in the primary vote.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/23/3119111.htm?site=newcastle

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/01/22/galaxy-66-34-to-coalition-in-nsw/

[You kip if you want to...]

NSW Labour's number only seem to be getting worse. They are at 20% in the primary vote.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/23/3119111.htm?site=newcastle

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/01/22/galaxy-66-34-to-coalition-in-nsw/

Oh my god. Has Labor or the Coalition ever done so badly anywhere? Is Kristina Keneally going to lose her seat?

[Verily]

I could see Keneally maybe losing to the Greens if the Liberals strongly preference the Greens ahead of Labor and if Labor continues to poll that poorly. Not to the Liberals under any circumstances.

[Smid]

Here are the numbers from that Galaxy poll: http://resources.news.com.au/files/2011/01/22/1225992/922540-galaxy-poll-nsw-state-election.pdf

There were other interesting questions asked (in addition to the basic "who will you vote for"), including the chance that a voter will change their vote between now and the election. It's bad news for Labor, but 73% of voters supporting the Coalition say they've locked in their votes, however almost half of Labor supporters say might still change their mind.

Here's another article, too: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sunday-telegraph/not-too-hard-please/story-e6frewt0-1225992932019

[Smid]

Okay, now to finally get around to posting those updates from Antony Green's blog. He's got plenty of great stuff on there, if you haven't already checked it out, go and do so, he probably knows more about Australian elections than anyone else out there (big call, I know, given Malcolm MacKerras and Adam Carr, but I think Antony Green might just edge the two of them out for the title).

In this piece, Green classifies NSW Legislative Assembly seats based on historic results in those seats. It's important to note that these results do not reflect margins (despite some shades being darker than others), nor are they a projection of future election results... Some of the Labor seats that have never been held by the Coalition could be at risk - I think specifically here of Coogee, for example, which is on a fairly slim margin, but in the ten elections Green has analysed, has never fallen to the Coalition.

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In the maps that follow, I've shaded these seats dark red.

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I have shaded these ten seats red.

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These nine electorates have been shaded pink.

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These five seats are shaded light blue. Note that Penrith and Ryde have been regained at by-elections.

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These five seats have been shaded blue.

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These seats have been shaded dark blue.

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These seats have a few different shades... Manly, having been regained by the Coalition, has been shaded the same light blue as seats that have been held by Labor but are now held by the Coalition. It's easy to spot, anyway. Sydney and Lake Macquarie, being independent-held, but typically more reddish in voting patterns, are shaded orange (yellow+red). Dubbo, Northern Tablelands, Port Macquarie and Tamworth, being independent-held but typically more traditionally Coalition seats, are shaded green (yellow+blue).

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As always, larger maps in the Gallery.

Central Coast




Illawarra




Rural and Regional NSW




Sydney Metropolitan Area

[Smid]

Another of Antony Green's pieces that might be of interest is his analysis of 2010 Federal election results, by State electorate. He has broken the federal results down to their booth levels and then allocated the booths to the various state electorates. I did this for about a quarter of the Victorian seats following the federal election, but it can be a little time consuming.

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Go to the page, as provided in the link... I don't think I can reproduce his table here.

(NOTE: At the 2007 state election, the Labor margin versus the Greens in Marrickville was 7.5%, on Federal figures it is 3.1%. At the 2007 state election the Labor margin versus the Greens in Balmain was 3.7%. On Federal figures the Greens finished third behind the Liberals. Owing to the personal nature of support for Independents, no attempt has been made to estimate state margins using votes transferred from the two Federal seats held by Independents.)

There are eight Labor-held state electorates on the Liberal side of the electoral pendulum. Bathurst, Camden, Drummoyne, Kiama, Londonderry, Menai, Miranda, Riverstone. All of these seats have a strong chance of being won by the Coalition at the state election.

There are also eight seats on the Labor side not currently held by Labor state MPs. Two of these are Independent-held Lake Macquarie and Sydney, and it seems unlikely that Labor will win these at the state election.

There are also five seats that lie within the Labor-held federal seats of Richmond, Page and Eden-Monaro. Labor has sone chance of retaining Monaro, but there is no way that Labor will win Ballina, Bega, Clarence, Lismore or Tweed on March 26.

The sixth seat on the Labor side that is currently held by the Liberal Party is Penrith, won by the Liberal Stuart Ayres at a by-election in 2010. It seems likely to be retained by the Liberal Party at the state election.

Remembering that NSW uses optional preferential voting, two other seats on the Labor side of the pendulum would have been won by the Liberal Party. In both Coogee and Oatley, the Liberal first preference vote lead at the federal election was enough for the Liberal Party to have won both seats once you allow for Green and minor party votes exhausting preferences.

It also has to be remembered that optional preferential voting tends to inflate margins in safe seats, so some of the Labor margins listed based on Federal results would have been safer had the election been conducted under optional preferential voting.

There was also a disturbingly high informal vote in many of Labor's safest seats at the federal election. While research on the intended vote of informal votes is not available, I think it likely that Labor's vote suffered in these seats as a result of the high informal vote.

So of the 50 Labor seats shown above, taking account of the differences in voting system and local seat factors, there are only 40 seats that the Federal results left in Labor hands.

There are only 29 seats where on Federal figures Labor has a margin of more than 5%. Even some of those 29 seats would be highly vulnerable based on current polling, especially Balmain and Marrickville where Labor will be under challenge from the Greens.

Given current polling, I would estimate that any seat that appears on the above pendulum with a Labor margin of under 8% is at risk of being lost by Labor at the state election. Taking account of the Green challenges, that would leave Labor with just 20 seats.
[/quote]

Here are his results, as maps:

Central Coast Region




Illawarra Region




Rural and Regional NSW




Sydney Metropolitan Area




Again, note that these results are NOT a prediction for the upcoming election, although they do show some areas where Labor's support may offer some protection, and also areas where there may be the potential for some larger swings.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the numbers for this.

I did hear in a the pretty safe ALP seat of Kiama, the Lib candidate is running at 60-40 TPP... which would be near a 25% swing... I have a very, VERY hard time believing those numbers will hold up.

[Smid]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the numbers for this.

I did hear in a the pretty safe ALP seat of Kiama, the Lib candidate is running at 60-40 TPP... which would be near a 25% swing... I have a very, VERY hard time believing those numbers will hold up.

I hope that's the case... I believe an old mate of mine from my uni days is the Liberal candidate in Kiama...

Meanwhile, in The Sydney Morning Herald, the first poll for the election has been released:

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I have difficulty believing that the final result will be that poor for Labor, however. I really think it's unlikely that when some formerly committed Labor voters walk into the polling booth, they'll really think that it's in their best interests for Labor to be not just put into Opposition, but left with a quarter of the seats... Mind you, the Coalition had about three-quarters of the seats following the 1996 Federal election, if my memory serves me correct, so maybe these figures are accurate.

The Daily Telegraph mentions the betting markets predicting Labor reduced to 20 seats. Of course, the betting markets also expected Labor to win the Victorian State election last year, too...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the numbers for this.

I did hear in a the pretty safe ALP seat of Kiama, the Lib candidate is running at 60-40 TPP... which would be near a 25% swing... I have a very, VERY hard time believing those numbers will hold up.

I hope that's the case... I believe an old mate of mine from my uni days is the Liberal candidate in Kiama...

Meanwhile, in The Sydney Morning Herald, the first poll for the election has been released:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I have difficulty believing that the final result will be that poor for Labor, however. I really think it's unlikely that when some formerly committed Labor voters walk into the polling booth, they'll really think that it's in their best interests for Labor to be not just put into Opposition, but left with a quarter of the seats... Mind you, the Coalition had about three-quarters of the seats following the 1996 Federal election, if my memory serves me correct, so maybe these figures are accurate.

The Daily Telegraph mentions the betting markets predicting Labor reduced to 20 seats. Of course, the betting markets also expected Labor to win the Victorian State election last year, too...

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

[Smid]

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

No, I was up in Brisbane in those days, but I knew him through NUS and ALSF. I haven't chatted with him in a couple of years, but I try to keep up with his Facebook posts. I slept the night on his couch one time, when a friend and I did a roadtrip from Brisbane to Melbourne for the 2002 Victorian election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's also possible that we've reached the point where people are embarrassed to admit that they're going to vote for NSW Labor.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

No, I was up in Brisbane in those days, but I knew him through NUS and ALSF. I haven't chatted with him in a couple of years, but I try to keep up with his Facebook posts. I slept the night on his couch one time, when a friend and I did a roadtrip from Brisbane to Melbourne for the 2002 Victorian election.

I ran in student elections at Wollongong once... I REALLY hated Uni politics, just a bunch of ego maniacs playing politician.

[Smid]

Hmmm - did you go to Uni of Wollongong too?

The Lib cand is a friend of mine as well.

No, I was up in Brisbane in those days, but I knew him through NUS and ALSF. I haven't chatted with him in a couple of years, but I try to keep up with his Facebook posts. I slept the night on his couch one time, when a friend and I did a roadtrip from Brisbane to Melbourne for the 2002 Victorian election.

I ran in student elections at Wollongong once... I REALLY hated Uni politics, just a bunch of ego maniacs playing politician.

I ran a few times... served on the Union/Council for a couple of years, and was an NUS delegate one year. Student politics really is shocking, though (hence why I didn't say which uni I attended - I don't want most of the people I knew from those days finding me on here).

[redcommander]

It's also possible that we've reached the point where people are embarrassed to admit that they're going to vote for NSW Labor.

That's a strong possibility. If anything, I think we will see how low Labour's floor is after this election.