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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« on: January 18, 2011, 12:32:58 pm »

Given that this thing is already well under way, and to prevent a further proliferation of threads and more mindless blabber on the subject matter between now and whenever, I figure one official thread would be much more preferable. And no, it isn't too early, given that the candidacies will begin and have begun flowing in already.

I've also decided, for those readers not up to date with all the candidacies, a brief guide of potential and official contenders...

Far-left

Nathalie Arthaud (LO): Arlette's successor in the leadership of LO, the more old-style sectarian Trot outfit. She's running no matter what, but she's not funny so nobody will care this time. She'll gather 1-2% talking about the revolution.

Olivier Besancenot (NPA): He's officially hesitating, but I do think he'll run again. He's the party's only member with a media presence and able to rally beyond the Trot sects. Despite failing in 2009 and epic failing in 2010, and despite internal wrangling before 2010 (which could reemerge); he still has a media image and remains more or less popular. While I don't think he'll do that well, polls have him in the 6-7% range. Perhaps he is benefiting from popular anger at the government, but he risks marginalization once the campaign begins.

There are also even more sectarian Trot organizations like the POI which will try to run, depending on whether they get the 500 endorsements. Maybe Schivardi will run again and be the Official Joke Candidate which every election has had. He's the redneck-like hick farmer who drinks way too much and doesn't support Corsican independence "because he has friends there".

The Left Front

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (PG-FG): Despite his party being a joke, Melenchon (who seems to be trying hard to imitate Marchais) has a major media image and is undoubtedly the FG's largest name. While his candidacy is very likely, it is not accepted by many Communists though the Politburo of the PCF supports his candidacy as part of a common FG candidacy. Interestingly, his candidacy could either kill or rejuvenate the PCF depending on the way you look at it. It could kill it by augmenting internal PCF tensions between the Politburo and the Stalinists hardliners. It could rejuvenate it by its ability to gather more than Buffet's pathetic 2007 result of less than 2%. He has between 4 and 7% in polls, but might have peaked too early. Melenchon notably hates journalists (which, considering how bad French media is, isn't a bad thing) and will probably end up physically assaulting one.

Alain Bocquet (PCF): Deputy for the Nord, and already declared candidate. He's an orthodox, though not a Stalinist. He opposes Melenchon and wants a PCF first round candidacy. While he would probably grudgingly accept an official Melenchon candidacy, it might leave traces on the party. He has called Sarkozy's policies as 'petainist'

André Gérin (PCF): Deputy for the Rhône, he is an hardline borderline Stalinist orthodox. He also dislikes Melenchon, who he says is basically a PS plant. Party like it's 1936!

André Chassaigne (PCF): Deputy for the Puy-de-Dome, he, despite being not that well known nationally, did extremely well in the 2010 regionals in Auvergne (16% or so, iirc). He is not classified as either orthodox or Politburo, and could do well in rural areas. He doesn't seem to oppose Melenchon from the orthodox's "HE IS A SOCIAL-TRAITOR" line.

PS

Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16. The candidacies will be deposited between June 28 and July 13.

(major) official candidates

Ségolène Royal (PS): Everybody's favourite candidate, she is already officially a candidate despite rumours to the contrary. Some say she could yet step aside if DSK (she also said that she'd like him to be her PM) is in or that it isn't too late for some backroom deal with her enemy, Aubry. Though she seems to have laid off the hard drugs since 2008, she remains in dire need of mental treatment. As a result of her medical condition, she performs quite poorly in matchups (17-19%) and her popularity numbers are still down the drain. Yet, we should have learned to never underestimate her: remember Reims? She still has an active troop of fanatics and supporters outside the establishment. An open primary helps her. An active media image and a decent charisma helps her. Though she insisted throughout 2009 and early 2010 that her candidacy was not inevitable, she recently admitted that she never really abandoned the idea.

Arnaud Montebourg (PS): An annoying sod and pathological liar (the crusader against double office-holding now holds 2 if not 3 elected offices), he is candidate on his traditional program of creating a 6th Republic and renewing the party. He has little support given that most of his original faction has split up a billion ways, but he does have the support of Christiane Taubira, which means that he is undoubtedly the candidate of the Annoying Sore Losers' and Stupid Sods Coalition.

Manuel Valls (PS): Deputy-mayor of Evry, he is officially a candidate. Like Montebourg, he's 48 and kind of good looking. He is a leading member of the party's Right or 'social liberal' tendency. He recently created a sh**tstorm within the party by saying the PS should stop being so rigid on the 35-hours. He won't win, but could do decently (especially if DSK isn't in), so he's likely after a plum post or preparing the ground for 2017.

There are also 3 other official candidates: Christian Pierret (mayor of Saint-Die and former secretary of state for industry in 1997), Daniel Le Scornet and Jean Mallot (deputy). Mallot seems to be running as a joke candidate with a sarcastic parody of the primaries and the PS' feuds as his main program.

Potential candidates

Martine Aubry (PS): Party leader. She will decide before June if she does run, likely waiting to see if DSK runs in which case she could potentially not go. Her objective is an obsession to make everything go smoothly and to keep everybody's egos under control. She's doing a rather good job at it, and her numbers are getting better. If DSK isn't in, she is then the frontrunner. She has roughly 22-24% in polls against Sarkozy in the first round.

François Hollande (PS): Former leader and deputy. He could conceivably announce his candidacy, which seems likely, after the cantonals where he is the favourite to retain control of Correze's CG. He is slowly coming up from behind in polls, with 18% in the last primary polling numbers. He remains weak in matchups, with 17-20% in those.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS): Director-General of the IMF, a term expiring in November 2012. Obviously, he himself refuses to talk about the subject matter but he must take a decision before the summer and also then resign his IMF post. His clan unsuccessfully tried to push for a delay in the primaries to give him more time. He is the early frontrunner but his nomination in case of a candidacy isn't a certainty though more likely than not. He is a member of the party's Right, or social-liberal faction which opens him up to attacks from his left from Melenchon and Besancenot. His non-partisan above-the-fray aura coming from his international job makes him the most popular politician in France with like 75-80% favourability ratings. He also leads Sarkozy by the first round with voting intentions hovering between 27 and 31%. He would, right now, crush Sarkozy in a runoff. Some polls even give him like 62-38 in a runoff, which is amusing. Undoubtedly, his aura would fade out and his numbers fall (though not dwindle) if he is candidate. Still the strongest contender.

Outsiders include: Gerard Collomb (mayor of Lyon), who says he's in if DSK isn't. He now seems to be a DSK backer after being behind Royal in 2008. Moscovici is also a candidate if DSK isn't. Even Delanoë (mayor of Paris), who until recently seemed to be out of it, said he might do it if he was in position to do so. Fabius, Hamon, Bianco and Lang will probably not run but could jump in if something really big happened; though it's doubtful.

The other lefties

Eva Joly (EELV): The MEP and Norwegian-born judge is EELV's most likely candidate. She has clear ambitions and the backing of Duflot and Cohn-Bendit. Yet, she seems to have scuttled her early candidacy and strong backing for it, likely because she has difficulty appearing as a media-savy lying bastard of a candidate in the media. She has between 4 and 6% in polls now.

Nicolas Hulot (Ecolo): The famous Telecologist and TV host is again considering whether or not to run, like in 2007. It seems like he's gonna wait a long time again, and I personally doubt he'll run. He would also be a bad candidate, given that he probably can't lead an electoral campaign. He has around 6-8% in polls.

Yves Cochet might run if there are primaries. Duflot and Cohn-Bendit are out.

Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC): He says that he's seriously considering running. I kind of doubt it. His fad has passed. This is likely part of his party's traditional bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it and give it a constituency or two.

The PRG (the PS' whores), experts in the game of bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it, are also trying their independent game. With Bernard Tapie probably not running, they have no candidate besides their boring local baron Jean-Michel Baylet who would get trounced outside his family and department.
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2011, 12:34:36 pm »


Centre

François Bayrou (MoDem): Since the failure of his 09-10 mood of whoring himself to the PS, which was followed by the epic failure of the regionals, Bayrou, who is, now more than ever, in dire need of mental help, is attempting to go back to the centre and try patching up with Sarkozy. He will undoubtedly run again as part of his strategy of pretending that there can be a viable third force. Polls now give him between 5 and 7% or so.

Hervé Morin (NC): The NC is really in an unenviable position. It knows that it really should run a candidate in 2012 to prove itself as a real party and prevent the inevitable debate over when it will disband altogether. Yet, it knows that a candidacy by its leader and former defense minister Hervé Morin would gather a pathetic result between 1 and 3%. Being out of government makes his candidacy a bit easier, but the NC is very reticent about allowing him to go ahead. Jean-Christophe Lagarde would prefer an alliance with the other islands of the centrist archipelago.

Jean-Louis Borloo (PR-UMP): leader of the Radicals and former cabinet minister. The Radicals, an associate party of the UMP, has recently received the adhesion of a number of grumbling UMPers like Rama Yade or Yves Jego. Certain within the UMP, especially the centrists but not Sarkozy, would like a Borloo candidacy in order to have a centre-right 'green' first round candidacy capable of taking votes from Bayrou and even the Greens. I personally am a bit wary of such a strategy, given that it doesn't necessarily mean that Sarkozy would have a significant vote reservoir. Sarkozy is also wary, but perhaps letting him go from cabinet was a sign that he was warming up to the idea. Sarkozy and the UMP's establishment have a weird belief in the myth of "first round victory" which holds that being ahead in the first round gives you a significant boost and dynamic for the runoff.  Thus, any division of the majority would be unwelcome for such a reason. He would also be a bad candidate, given his disorderly image and slightly lazy image.

Right

Christine Boutin (PCD): Egomaniac totally devoid of political skills. Best known for crying a river in Parliament and hating teh gayz peoples. She says she will run in 2012, but I have my doubts.

Dominique de Villepin (RS): He will most likely run. He is attempting a centre-right moderate Gaullist strategy trying to pick up centrist voters and unhappy UMPers. After a spike this summer in polls, his numbers have come down to 3-6%.

Dear Leader Nicolas Sarkozy/the Hungarian Dwarf (UMP): Dear Leader will certainly run again unless he dies or something. He obviously doesn't seem to be the guy who bows out after one term. Unpopular, with approvals in the low 30s for a long time. Hurt by a whole slew of scandals (Karachi, EPAD, mediator, Bettencourt/L'Oreal). Unlike Mitterrand and Chirac, deeply unpopular in their first times, he will not be saved by cohabitation and thus blame-shifting to a government of another colour. Thus, instead of being a 1988/2002 like election, it will be more like 1981. A lot say that voters in the presidential election will forget the bad stuff and vote on issues and stuff like that. If true, it could help him. The left's legendary ability to shoot itself in the foot could help. Despite having a solid base of roughly 25% in all cases, he will be hurt by: a) significant loses with working-class voters, which were important for him in 2007, b) significant loses with middle-class and urban centrist/liberal voters, which turned heavily against the UMP in 2010, c) inability to hold the FN voters he got in 2007.

NDA (DLR): The French JFK, or alternatively a rather annoying person with a mancrush on de Gaulle, will run if he can. Despite low media coverage, he still got 4% in IdF in the regionals, and could catch a fair share of unhappy traditional right-wing voters. Not really polled, he could win between 1 and 4% imo.

Far-right

Marine Le Pen (FN): Official candidate of the party and also the official leader. She might be peaking early, but right now she has a perfect storm brewing. The anti-Islamic stuff works well, but she is also less racist than Daddy on that stuff and she has competently presented the issue as a matter of secularism and not as much ol' racism against ze blacks and ze Ayrabs Moslems. She is moderate on social issues which don't really matter. She has a far more modern image than Daddy who couldn't resist making a racist comment, a borderline neo-Nazi comment and a 1930s-comment on the socialo-communists destroying France. She is left-wing on economic issues, which works well these days. Her big base with party members/rank-and-file is a big plus. She might make the runoff, but the chances of that are under 50%. Parties remember April 21, 2002 and all parties will take out the bazookas like they never do to prevent another one.

Carl Lang (PDF): Old anti-Marine crypto-fascist who split in 2009 from the FN. He is backed by the old 2-member far-right groupings and unsavoury neo-Nazis/fascist types. He is worthless, but perhaps the UMP will secretly boost him to hurt Marine. Yet he'd still win 0.5-1% if he can manage the 500 endorsements.

Jacques Cheminade, the LaRouchite, will also try to run but won't get the 500 endorsements. There are also rumours that Brigitte Bardot would be candidate for the AEI, a small mix of scientologists, loons and centrist greenies; but Waechter has since distanced himself from the AEI to get back with the Greenies.
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2011, 01:35:17 pm »
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Congratulations, this thread was a long overdue seeing how this topic seems to interest a lot of people now. Thanks for your approfondite overview of the candidates. Smiley
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2011, 11:54:36 am »
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I really think there is no threat to see Marine "PanzerGirl" in the 2nd round.

For the moment, she has the right positioning,

- being far-rightist in the European meaning of the word, i.e. secularism against Islam, but a bit less against immigration and crime, a bit less openly racist (as she knows that she must be "acceptable" for French medias and distance herself from Big Old Daddy; while still appealing to old extremist voters, who don't understand the difference between Islam and immigration and so still think she is as racist as Daddy, which is fine for them),

- being modern on social and moral matters (as she knows traditional Villiers voters will go to Boutin or Sarkozy and make at best 1.5 %),

- being leftist on economical and social matters, as the far-left is divided (surprising, eh ?), with the only one doing good in the polls (Besancenot) hesitating to be candidate and very debated inside the far lest apparatuses, and as Mélenchon has peaked too early.

Despite these very good points, electorally and tactically speaking, well, everybody knows what happened in 2002 and this won't occur again.

Plus, as I've already said, other potential outsiders are down (Bayrou, Villepin, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly). Even Hulot and Borloo are already shooting in their own foot, by procrastinating, and they would anyway be bad campaigners, whatever the big propaganda efforts made by the French medias if they are candidates.

So, I don't think Marine will make it to the 2nd round.

BUT she'll destroy one of the 2 candidates and, in a way, she'll decide the winner as soon as in the first round.

If DSK or Hollande is candidate, Sarkozy will be eaten both by the socialist candidate, who will gather Bayrou and centre-right voters, and by Marine Le Pen as he won't be able to steal FN voters in the same way as 2007 (have you seen the small ironic smile of Marine Le Pen when she spoke about 2007 and some promises of Sarkozy towards the popular electorate, both industry jobs and tough crime policy, that failed miserably ? She knows these voters won't go to Sarkozy again).

If Aubry is candidate after a tough campaign against Royal and/or Hollande in which she is forced to take Hamon and Emmanuelli's ideas, Aubry will be deprived of popular electorate by Marine Le Pen, as they anyway won't vote for Delors' daughter, and won't be able to prevent Sarkozy from doing a centrist move (Sarkozy may well think, in this case, he could try to force another 2002 situation).

This second scenario is far less likely, as, without DSK, the "right wing" PS will be divided between Valls, Hollande, maybe Moscovici and even Delanoë and as Aubry will be able to remain in a center position inside the PS.

In a way, Sarkozy 2007 recipe will be the exact thing that will kill him in 2012:
he should have gone more centrist as soon as 2008, in order to favour a Copé or some tough right politician to be candidate in order to kill Marine and let him being the centre-right candidate.

Of course, this is not at all his personality but that would have probably been the best solution.
(and, of course, it's easy to say this now... I didn't think about it in 2008... Tongue)

In a nutshell, I think Sarkozy has already lost, as only a too leftist Aubry (or a Royal but she won't win the primary) may give him the election.



I post this again in order to BUMP the thread and answer to Benoît in the right thread and to tell him that he bases his analysis a bit too much on TV image.
Marine Le Pen is a bad politician, with no credibility, OK, but which one is really credible nowadays ?
Sure, DSK, Fillon, Hollande, Juppé aren't too ridiculous, but they are so few...
That doesn't count, unfortunately.

In 2012, the right will have been in power for 10 years. This simple fact is a big reason why Sarkozy is probaby doomed.



And, Hash, it's Gerin, not Gérin.
Just to make your overview a bit closer to perfection and completeness Wink.

BTW, there is still to see a real candidate from the far-left emerge to take Besancenot's place.
Maybe Mélenchon will benefit from this, or Besancenot will be a candidate after all.
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2011, 02:01:05 pm »
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French politics seem more complicated than anything I've heard of before. Good job with the thread though Hash.
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2011, 03:43:45 pm »

CSA (a joke pollster and awful one at that), 20/01

DSK (PS) 30%
Sarkozy (UMP) 23%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 6%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 5%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Villepin (RS) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 27%
Aubry (PS) 22%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Villepin (RS) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Royal (PS) 21%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 10%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Besancenot (NPA) 4%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Hollande (PS) 20%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2011, 04:37:53 pm »
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Poor France, is doomed to became islamic in 2050 no matter who wins !
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2011, 04:44:10 pm »
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French politics seem more complicated than anything I've heard of before.

Nah, there are just a lot of egomaniacs, hacks, useless feuds, etc... Ideologically, French politics are usually epically boring.


Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande

Huh, yeah, those results are nowhere near plausibility.
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2011, 06:41:42 pm »
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Royal kind of reminds me of a French Sarah Palin. Devoted followers, but the candidate seems to have a head filled with sawdust. Didn't Royal once call for sanctions against the Taliban... in 2007?
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2011, 06:44:54 pm »
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There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.
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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2011, 06:48:05 pm »
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There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

Eh, true. Royal isn't part of the establishment now, though.
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2011, 06:58:21 pm »

There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

Eh, true. Royal isn't part of the establishment now, though.

I'd argue every PS faction outside the fringe lefties leftover (and even then...) and a few young people which nobody cares about are part of the party's establishment. They're just different clans of the larger establishment supported by a plethora of local barons.

If Segogo was really anti-establishment, then she'd never have stood a chance. One of the reasons she did so well in 2008 was also that she had a lot of local barons lined up behind her, most notably the criminal Guerini family mafia of the Bouches-du-Rhone. Because, yeah, a map of her 2008 support is a map of the local strongholds of the various establishment factions (local barons) who supported her in 2008. In fact, just like every other Congress.
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« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2011, 08:39:06 am »
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BVA 14 & 15 / 1

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 5
Aubry 23
Joly 5
Bayrou 6
Borloo 5
Villepin 5
Sarkozy 27
Le Pen 17

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 4
Aubry 31
Joly 6
Bayrou 5
Borloo 2
Villepin 3
Sarkozy 25
Le Pen 17

Funny to see that DSK steals points first to Borloo, Sarkozy and Villepin !!
Besancenot remains ridiculously high: there is again a strong leftist rebellious vote that is still up for grabs and many French people haven't really followed what is happening inside the far left.

Aubry/Sarkozy 57/43
DSK/Sarkozy 64/36

What is amazing is what happens between the 2 rounds:
- DSK receives 69% of Bayrou voters (not a great surprise), 68% of Villepin voters and 34% of Le Pen voters !!! (Sarkozy has only 24% of Le Pen voters...)
- Aubry takes 49% of Bayrou (25% for Sarkozy), 48% of Villepin (!!! Sarkozy takes only 31% !!!), 33% of Le Pen (Sarkozy 40%) and, last but not least, 48% of Borloo (!!! OMG !!! Sarkozy only 45% !)

Of course, these percentages apply to very small samples... But, still....
It may prove that there strong anger and disappointment
among centre-right voters (politically forgotten and irritated by bling-bling and by Hortefeux-Estrosi)
and among FN voters (many really believed in Sarkozy in 2007 and the disappointment is now very deep).

Sarkozy's popularity is very low among centrist voters (MoDem + NC, if this has any meaning in a poll with such a sample....): 65% of bad opinions, while Fillon has 65% of... good opinions.
And among FN voters, Sarkozy has 70% of bad opinions (while Fillon has only 55%).

With Copé playing the lil' capitalist like Sarkozy in 2007, with personal disputes again at work (Copé-Bertrand, Devedjian-sarkozysts, Copé-Fillon, Woerth-all the UMP,...), with another defeat in the cantonales in March, with Larcher threatened in the Senate in September,
and now with Sarkozy amazingly badly positioned, as he is rebuted from the far-right AND from the center-right,
I really don't see how he could win.

Fillon could be able to win against Aubry (but not DSK or Hollande), but Sarkozy has a small chance only against Royal...
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« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2011, 02:49:46 am »
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Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.
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« Reply #14 on: January 22, 2011, 03:11:01 am »
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Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

It's impossible. Sarkozy is the party.
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« Reply #15 on: January 22, 2011, 07:39:28 am »
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Wait, a BVA poll gives Aubry... 57% ? Huh For real ? Huh
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #16 on: January 22, 2011, 09:07:13 am »

Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

Yeah, the days pigs will fly.
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« Reply #17 on: January 22, 2011, 11:45:20 am »
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Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

Yeah, the days pigs will fly.

Air France on strike?
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« Reply #18 on: January 22, 2011, 01:30:39 pm »
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Sarkozy will kill the UMP in his own defeat.

It will be interesting to see if Copé is able to save a big bunch of it: after all, he can keep the former DL with him, BUT he may not be able to keep many, many former RPRs. His strength will be that Fillon is alone.

If Sarkozy's defeat means DSK victory (do you really think he will be able to be re-elected in 2017 Grin ?) and a plural right, with a strong centre-right, well, why not, after all ? Wink

OK, OK, this is the 2012 thread... sorry...



Yes, Antonio, Aubry at 57% in a BVA poll: you can understand how sad I can be these days Tongue Cheesy
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« Reply #19 on: January 22, 2011, 01:45:10 pm »
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Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2011, 05:08:04 pm »

Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.
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« Reply #21 on: January 23, 2011, 06:28:37 am »
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Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.

You're 100% right. However, I can't hide my joy right now... Cheesy
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #22 on: January 23, 2011, 05:57:16 pm »
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I'd say BVA and IFOP are better for some years now (and Opinion Way, surprisingly !)
IPSOS is still nr.1, but with a lesser margin.
SOFRES is probably the one which has lost the biggest ground since the mid 2000s.
ViaVoice hasn't polled enough to be sure.
CSA is still the French Zogby.
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« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2011, 06:12:48 pm »

Yeah, OpinionWay did good with the regionals. It also thankfully destroyed the left's pathetic line of ZOMGZ TEHY POLL FOR LE FIGARO SO THEY R AWFUL POOLSTERS!!!!
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« Reply #24 on: January 24, 2011, 05:40:45 pm »

New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.
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